Apple's smart home and subscription strategy drives high-margin recurring revenue; stock is undervalued at $337 vs estimated fair value of $495-$500.

Apple is finally preparing to enter its next big category: the smart home. As you know, there's a lot of talk about the "Duo" device potentially being one way for them to expand their smart home product lineup.

I think if Apple can offer a more plug-and-play product in this direction, it will be a game-changer for them to attract people to spend more on their devices.

Well, Apple is planning to make its long-delayed move into the smart home market on October 13, marking a crucial product expansion for the company under its new CEO. This has been a major goal for the CEO.

The CEO's goal is: "Listen, we're going to work hard on product development." This is actually very clever.

Apple can sell you a single all-inclusive subscription. I mean, everyone is doing it now. In fact, I think this is very clever. Remember back in the day when Apple had "iLife" where they combined "Numbers" and "PowerPoint" - I mean their version of it, "Keynote" - and "Pages", right?

They put all these things together. Today, they bundle family packages into a service known as, guess what? Apple One.

Apple One combines multiple Apple subscriptions into a single monthly plan to help you save money.

So, my view when we talk about Apple is that their strategy is genius; The more products they push and the more they encourage people to subscribe, the more recurring revenue they generate with high profit margins, and that's what you want as an Apple investor.

In fact, I am absolutely convinced that the Apple Duo will achieve huge sales. Apple's stock has seen a slight decline because of this, but there are rumors that production of the "Duo" device has only reached 60% of its capacity at the moment, and this is bad because we want this device.

But the core of the strategy revolves around a smart home codenamed J490, according to sources familiar with the matter. Apple is also planning to deliver the first HomePod Mini update since 2020, and a new TV receiver since 2022.

One of the concerns people have about the iPad Duo or iPhone Duo is that the iPhone Duo might affect iPad sales. I don't entirely agree with that, because I believe the full-size iPad still has value.

But what will be replaced by the "Duo" device is the "iPad Mini". Because I will be able to take the pen from here and use it on my Duo device, which excites me greatly.

But I actually think that if they release a device with a small screen that you can use as a smart home controller, you can reintroduce the same technology that you sell in the iPad Mini, just presenting it in a new form as a smart home controller. A very clever idea.

It is clear that upgrading the speakers and competing more with Sonos is necessary. Anyway, I think it's great because I can play music when I'm in the greenhouse or anywhere else, and that's amazing.

But in light of this, it is an early test for the CEO who has taken over. Apple is known for creating "the next big thing". Good. Of course, Android users say that Apple is far behind.

These products also serve as a display interface for Apple's new smart assistant, "Siri". Good. Siri's new assistant is rather bad so far because it is very slow. For example, I say to him: "Hello, add something to the calendar."

All I get is a download icon that spins and spins and spins.

I bought it... Well, first impressions of the new watch, is this acceptable? I have the new watch here. This is the brand new watch. I put my old bracelet on it. This is my old watch.

I still have to deliver it. I might need to... I've already erased its data, but maybe I should charge it. Anyway, this is the old clock, the old Ultra. You can tell by the orange button on the side.

But this is the new one. So far, you haven't noticed any real difference.

In my experience so far, the battery life is perhaps slightly better, but relatively similar. What you're waiting for is a new range of health products, more accurate health integration through frequent measurement of your changing heart rate, and better sensors to measure blood oxygen levels.

These are some of the improvements suggested here regarding the redesign of the Apple Health app, which I am a big fan of.

Now, take a look at this. They claim here that the series of updates suffered from multiple delays. It's still not good. I just want to be clear about that.

The "Home Hub" will take the form of a screen approximately 6 inches in size. Ah, can you see? Well, I mean the iPad Mini is about 8.1 inches in size. With copies that can be mounted on the wall. Yes. That's exactly what you want.

Meanwhile, both the HomePod Mini and Apple TV will retain their current designs, but with faster processors to support Siri. It's still slow, man. We'll see.

Even with the new watch, I often ask Siri for something, even though it's supposed to be built into the device, but it just says, "Sorry, I'm not available right now." And I say to myself: "What did I pay for this?"

So, Apple is still way behind, okay? They will get there, and I am a big fan of Apple, and I own shares in the company, so I want to be clear about all of that. But they are still behind.

Now, its defining feature will be its ability to serve multiple family members, as it is designed to recognize who is speaking to or approaching it. We've heard rumors like this in the past.

When the user approaches, for example, the device will display that person's contacts, messages, calendar appointments, and notes in their preferred format. Hmm. If you want to.

It will also have a visitor mode to hide personal information. That's right, exactly. Set up for visitors, I think. The device recognizes users through their voices or through facial recognition.

Oh, okay, so unlike the Duo, it will actually have LiDAR facial recognition technology, huh?

Apple expects customers to place several of these screens around their homes. I actually agree with that. I think people will do that. For example, you could put it by your front door, by the back door, on the kitchen table, and in your bedroom.

I completely agree. People will buy four or five of them.

It will be an entirely new sector, but it's not just about getting people to buy the device. Instead, they make them store more of their photos in iCloud and push them to subscribe to Apple One.

That's what they want. This is the high-margin product here.

You know, you get the "Premium" package for $40 a month. This includes Apple TV, music, fitness, news, and sharing with family members or anyone else. They are trying to push every household that uses Apple devices to spend money on this, in addition to the insurance product.

I think this is still in a very early stage as a recurring revenue engine for Apple, but the new subscription product they are offering for insurance services, which they call "AppleCare One".

You can now add multiple devices to it. For example, I have an iPhone, an iPad Mini, a Vision Pro, and the new Apple Watch, and they are covered by this program. It costs $26 a month.

Therefore, if it is damaged during use or for any other reason, especially with the "Vision Pro" if it falls from you, for example.

In any case, they have made it easy and tempting now to keep adding products, which is very smart because instead of renewing your subscriptions individually for all these different products and keeping track of them.

All you need to know is an Apple One subscription for the services package, and Apple One insurance for the insurance package. I think this is similar to two different products.

This brings us back to the complexity once again. But this is a smart move.

The greater their ability to increase recurring revenues, the greater the likelihood of raising the company's valuation. The company's current valuation on Wall Street is high in my opinion, but based on my own estimates, it is low.

I think people don't properly assess Apple's growth. I think what they are doing with "One" products is genius.

Current growth estimates have actually increased slightly. Current growth estimates were around 8.9% on average for the next four years. The four-year estimate has now risen to 9.9%.

So, we're starting to see analysts slightly raising their Apple growth forecasts, but I estimate Apple will grow at 20% annually over the next four years on average.

At this level, with earnings per share of $8.82 and net profit margins of approximately 30%. Look at this stock at $8.82. Let me calculate these numbers accurately. With a growth rate of 20% and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 2.69, I believe the stock is worth between $495 and $500.

I know this sounds crazy because the stock has actually been performing well and is standing at $337 here. It was priced at $315 during the Apple event. We already sent him a purchase alert during the Apple event.

The price ranged between $310 and $315. We said: "Don't miss the opportunity, buy it now."

Of course, this is not personal investment advice. We do not offer personalized advice, but as part of our "Reinvest One" membership, we send alerts when any trade is made, whether it is selling put or call options, adjusting, or otherwise. Therefore, we believe this is very interesting.

So, what Apple is doing is trying to maximize annual recurring revenue (ARR), and I think they will succeed in that. The device is designed to remain stationary, with a single FaceTime camera.

The product contains a microphone, and it is not designed to be like an iPad, which means you won't find large batteries in it. Most likely, you will just plug it into electricity.

The base is about the thickness of an iPhone. This is amazing. The screen is surrounded by a quarter-inch wide frame. Just like the old iPads. Therefore, it is a somewhat cheaper screen.

The device lacks a battery, so it must remain plugged into electricity at all times. This is acceptable. The product uses a USB-C port for power. Users can manually tilt the device forwards or backwards with a rubber base to help keep it stable on the table.

Oh, that's great. Perforated speaker openings. This is a prototype from 2002 here, and I think they are trying to suggest that its shape is similar to it. This is interesting. So, this is what the device might look like, perhaps a smaller version of it.

Apple developed a second version designed to be wall-mounted. Ah, the different product will be the wall-mounted version. Interesting. It rests flat against the wall and must be powered via a USB-C port.

The product has been under development for years. Apple eventually settled on a new product that combines an artificial intelligence operating system with a "HomePod"-like product.

The product scheduled for release at a later date does not record video. But I assume you can make FaceTime calls on it. Another product in development is an upgraded version of the "Home Hub" that comes with a larger 9-inch screen and a robotic arm that allows the screen to move around the space.

I expect this device will not be released anytime soon. The robotic arm version. We'll see if it will be released soon.

The user interface relies heavily on image slideshows and clock displays. Oh yes, we desperately need that expensive watch.

In addition to hardware, Apple is working on developing "HomeKit" software. There are many "HomeKit" products now. And I think it's wonderful. Honestly, even the " ecobee" thermostats, in my opinion, far surpass "Nest".

So this is very exciting for Apple. I'm very excited about what Apple has in store. We'll see what they announce in the end.