BABA is in a cyclical downtrend, with lower highs and a breakdown below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, and no recovery in Chinese AI; the 200-week average may now support a strong bounce, but any bounce is likely short-lived and he is trading for further downside.

You have Alibaba as a last resort. It is under significant pressure today, having fallen by more than 4% currently and experiencing widespread selling this week. How do you view Alibaba in light of these intense sales?

You know, I don't think it would be difficult for Kevin to disagree with me on this . Because this stock is in a cyclical downward trend. There is no doubt about that. The graph looks very bad.

We are witnessing a sales activity that is leading to a continuous drain day after day. I will actually go along with this trend. This is something I don't usually do definitively unless I feel strongly that the situation is not good.

Their work is in a clear state of decline , so to speak. We could talk about artificial intelligence until we get bored , but this is another sign that, whether you look at semiconductors or at Alibaba and its sales activity , this is not a positive indicator for artificial intelligence.

There is no recovery here, specifically in the field of Chinese artificial intelligence. So, once again, I will take a bearish trading position. I will continue until the options expiry date on December 18th.

I will buy a put option at a price of 100, and sell a put option at a price of 90 in return. So, it's just a simple strategy with a $10 spread on put options, at a debt cost of $2.80.

Looking at this graph, it is appalling, and over the longer time period, the situation gets worse, so to speak.

Good. Okay, let's take a look then, "KG". I mean, it's not a straight-line decline, but do you see the same carnage that Don sees in the technical analysis?

Well, we're in the middle of the week, and you know what? I will disagree with Don again . Just because it's fun , but at least for today, I understand his point of view. Look , if we look at the daily chart, the situation looks bad.

We are recording lower highs and witnessing a breakdown, as we have broken the 20-day and 50-day moving average levels , as well as the 200-day moving average . Now, what we can say is that if you see any kind of strong support above the previous low we reached at around $91 or $92, then you can say that the stock has started to make a higher bottom.

We cannot assume that at the moment. Don is also looking at this type of descending wedge pattern , and we are approaching the support zone there. He anticipates a sharp decline, thereby breaking this peg.

Clearly, if that happens , he expects the decline to continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording lower highs, the MACD indicator is turning bearish, and the 12-day exponential moving average is below the 26-day average.

I have just presented Don's pessimistic viewpoint. But let's move on to the weekly chart, and here you will find some optimism for this stock. Or you can anticipate an opportunity to rise or build an argument for it.

It is clear that Alibaba has exploited the 200-week moving average area in the red over the past three years. This was a crucial point, and I always bring it up. We can see how it functioned in October 2024 as a resistance zone with perfect accuracy.

We witnessed a failure to rise and a return to the 50-week moving average, then a retest of the 200-week average, a breakout, a return to test it, and then a rise. We have been recording lower highs after reaching the 192 level, and this is normal.

But what happened in July and June of this year? The 200-week moving average was tested, and buyers stepped in. We are testing it again now. If we can hold here, that means a higher bottom, and from here my confidence increases that it may break above the 20-week moving average and even the 50-week moving average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) doesn't look its best, but it's not breaking down any further . The MACD indicator has started to stabilize somewhat, but we saw a bullish crossover here last July.

The reason I'm bringing this up is that long-term charts tend to give you a more accurate indication of the type of long-term trend.

My view is that if the 200-week moving average previously acted as a resistance zone, it is now acting as a support zone, and if it holds here, you can expect a very strong upward move .

While the daily chart is falling apart , you could say that the weekly chart might see a rebound here.

I put Alibaba in the same category as semiconductors. So, if there is going to be a bounce here, I think it will be short-lived. I think you can bet on it going down, and that's exactly what I'm trying to do in my trading of Alibaba stock.

Well, Alibaba's stock is down about 4% now at 104.33.