CRWV's large debt and capex versus projected revenue, 15-16% bond yields and an HSBC-estimated 8.9% ROIC for 2026-2030 below cost of capital signal financing risk; not a default call, but costly borrowing could make future projects harder, and GPU collateral may depreciate. Investor sees a good chance of bankruptcy.

And behind the scenes, companies like Cororeweave and Oracle are borrowing or raising billions of dollars to build the infrastructure powering the artificial intelligence boom.

That's where Cororeweave comes in. Coreweave is an AI cloud computing company, also known as a Neocloud. It buys high performance GPUs primarily from Nvidia, and rents that computing power to customers developing and operating AI.

The demand has been tremendous, but so has the cost of building the business, and that's where we see the price investors pay. The stock is down 40% just in October alone. The last couple of weeks, 84% down since this year's May.

And as of June 30th, Cororeweave had approximately $35.6 billion in debt principle compared with just 11.2 billion a year earlier. And here's another number worth paying attention to.

Coreweee expects to spend between 35 billion and $39 billion on capex this year. its projected annual revenue approximately $12 billion to$13 billion. That means Coreweave is planning to spend roughly $3 building infrastructure for every dollar it expects to generate in topline revenue.

Now that doesn't automatically mean the business is failing. Infrastructure companies often spend heavily before projects begin generating a profit. Coreweave also has a substantial backlog of contracted businesses.

But there's a critical difference between signing a contract and collecting enough cash to pay back your lenders.

And that's where the bond market comes in. Earlier this month, yields on some of Core Weave's unsecured bonds surged to approximately 15 to 16%. HSBC estimates that the company will generate a return on invested capital of 8.9% only between 2026 and 2030.

Think about what that means. Their return on capital is going to be lower than their cost of capital. investors buying those bonds at depressed market prices were demanding returns for far above what they would expect from a financially secure investment grade company.

That doesn't mean Cororeweave is about to default and it doesn't mean all his existing debt suddenly carries a 15% interest rate. But it does mean investors are demanding much greater compensation for taking the company's credit risk.

And if Cororeweave needs to borrow more money at similarly expensive rates, the economics of future projects could become more difficult.

There's another problem. The collateral supporting some of these loans include Nvidia GPUs. These are incredibly expensive chips, but they're also part of an industry where technology improves rapidly.

So, what happens if a new generation of GPUs become substantially more efficient before the previous generation has earned back its cost? Can core continue charging the same rental rates?

Will its equipment retain enough value to support the loans? These are the questions credit investors are beginning to ask and the answers matter well beyond cororeweave.

Here's what George Noble had to say about the core situation. Take a listen. >> Short from 107 earlier this year. We actually doubled the short a couple of weeks ago. It's it's our biggest position.

I think there's a very good chance Corwe goes bankrupt.

And then something very important I'd like to say, Dave, in the context of this of this, I don't know if you saw this or not, but I I put something on my uh Twitter feed um this morning or yesterday is unbelievable.

All right, in response to I think I wrote something like if you're if you're a crowe bull, you don't want to see this. Basically what's happened as the stock prices plummeted retail investors at Robin Hood came piling in at record amounts to buy coral.

This is not how bottoms are made. Bottoms are made when you have people saying get me out. There's blood in the streets. I can't take it. Retail has been embracing this with both arms.

Buying it to an extent they've never bought before. As a matter of fact, I saw something similar about tech generally. They're buying with both with both hands. So I I I mean I I just there's a huge I have a hugely variant perception between what's really going on with Coral Weave to me it's just un unbelievable.

All right because you look at the balance sheet most of the folks looking looking at Corave not paying attention to the balance sheet. They're just buying the narrative. I don't think I think most investors in Corwave they don't even know what they own. They just bought a story.

Coreweave is more dependent on outside financing and the economics of AI computing infrastructure. Cororeweave and Oracle have billions of dollars in contracted future businesses.