Alphabet is a strong long-term investment (10 years) due to its cash reserves, cloud/AI infrastructure pivot, and brand trust, despite short-term threats to its ad model from AI agents and negative free cash flow.

What It means for us who We own companies like Alphabet and Amazon in Our investment portfolio?

I have I just spoke, I think We had a discussion years in the community before Two days, where he wondered People are asking whether it is from It is necessary to grant companies such Amazon and Google Microsoft multipliers It's different now that These companies became Deeper in debt Ever, but Basically, isn't that right?

So much so that two years ago, Google was the search engine, For example, Something that is thought to last ten or twenty or The next thirty years, Isn't that so? He was A near-total monopoly Unrivaled.

But now, With the emergence of intelligence Artificial, we can To say that dynamic The entire research may It has changed, and perhaps it no longer does. Profits can be guaranteed Google search engine for ten or Twenty years.

It is noteworthy To see how this is This also happens with Alphabet. somehow. actual For two decades, Alphabet owned profitable monopoly Extremely important in the field of research, And it achieved greater success Much more than she was able Berkshire's investigation of See's Candy Company.

But now As you know, he speaks People about...when we started Investing in Alphabet, The prevailing opinion was in The market for ChatGPT and software Automated chat It will revolutionize research Google.

And now, as You know, Google has transformed itself in a short time to The largest chatbot in The world, and it was completely turned upside down. How people use For Google search engine to become More dependent on artificial intelligence.

And so I transformed this threat to opportunity Business opportunity in a way what. But this threat He reappears. I don't know if you have You noticed that, but this what I was going to say it.

Yes, while It relates to trade via Agents, we are now witnessing A shift in the narrative, where It is assumed that these The agents will By purchasing products On your behalf, then suddenly Advertising value collapses Digital because the customer The final is not seen Advertisements and agents They don't care about it.

This is in The reality is a fundamental threat. Google search results It worries me. anyway, It now appears that there A real danger threatening Research work. and goal Alphabet is the transformation To a leading company in The field of computing Cloud and infrastructure Infrastructure for intelligence Artificial, and access To a stage where it surpasses cash flows The result of this The resulting losses, on For example, about The decline in research activity.

Perhaps we are talking here about three, five, or ten Years to come. This is a Really interesting, But the company has a head She has a huge amount of money to pay Allocate it.

It's more like A blessing and a curse at the same time one. The research sector is huge Extremely high and generates flows Huge cash. If not You can restore Investing this amount The great researcher You will ask yourself: "Where do we invest?"

Hundreds of billions of Dollars from Cash flows? It seems that betting on artificial intelligence, Infrastructure For artificial intelligence, Cloud computing, It is the ideal model.

This surprises me. Because it reflects, as I mentioned What we saw with Berkshire Hathaway. In In the past, it was Berkshire asks: "What is Most intensive companies For the capital that We can invest capital "Our money is in it?"

Here it is. Alphabet does the thing The same in the world economy The new one. It's interesting At least for me.

For example, if We have now compared Amazon And Google, right? I think it was a year ago Only one, when I didn't The idea of engine failure Research over the years three to five The next one is a rumor, we were We believe Alphabet will be In a stronger position than Amazon , For example.

Now, if we look at The two companies, we find that Alphabet has options Wide due to diversity Its activities, therefore it is not possible Predicting what it will offer, And perhaps it will return to the top The scene.

like that? Alphabet had $5.3 billion free cash flow One year ago. But now, he -$6 billion.

But I know that Google Amazon is investing More in this area.

And this applies The same on Alphabet, or Amazon, for example

It was similar with Google last year, When they gave glimpses General information about intelligence Artificial, then they released Gemini, and suddenly realized The market, how are they supposed to be?

Making money from intelligence Artificial. This is important Very much so because we know that They have obligations that extend ten or fifteen or Twenty years, where They have to spend Hundreds of billions of Dollars.

And if There are those who will do that. It will be Alphabet or Apple. Therefore, The burden falls on Alphabet, and I'm sure of It works on this The matter. But, as You know, we are shareholders At Alphabet, however, It's really embarrassing For her!

They have all these services. Like Google Calendar, And my email address, Google Drive, and much more From my professional life The character is created via Google. . Google is a huge company.

An assistant can be built My complete home, as well as Google Maps. namely, You have all these things Which can be exploited, It's a golden opportunity Alphabet to build a program Small, can easily Syncing all these things together.

As you know, you are not I am forced to do so, I mean that Alphabet's reputation Private, but as you know, It seems strange with Meta, because I wonder: Should I sell my soul to Facebook?

And Instagram? unless They have sufficient data About me? "Now they get More data, This type of company Like Meta, he has a reputation Bad. It has always been like that. As for Alphabet, She has no self bad reputation, whether Whether it was deserved or not, or Whether justified or not, that's a matter.

Debatable, but Alphabet definitely not She suffers from the same type of Public Relations and the brand The bad one that suffers Some of them are dead.

Therefore, as You know, people feel More comfortably when Using Google for purposes Different productivity in Their lives, they don't They are reluctant to share some The data because Tangible.

I think that People will hesitate to Sharing their data with Muse . In any case, I felt that This was in a phase Experimental, and it was from It is supposed to be A product of Alphabet.

It should have been raised Firstly. It should have It's called Alphabet Muse or whatever The name that would be given attic.

And I'm sure of It will be presented during About two weeks, Do you think so? I feel, I don't know why, that Since the appearance of Gemini, it has been A huge model comparable Major laboratories, Isn't that so?

Then they stopped About putting anything out for a while Long. She was still It surpasses anything else she gave up About him, Anthropic and Open EA, and even Meta now. So I feel that they are They are still spending all that Money, but as As I mentioned earlier, it seems They want to enter the sector Infrastructure in The market.

I don't know why They don't. I believe That they could have done That, however, did not They completely give up The model itself, which is a I don't fully understand it. But I would be surprised now if They released a good agent Enough.

I mean, maybe They launch an agent, but A good enough agent To compete. I don't see that almost. I mean, almost They have to do that.

I think it's difficult Very much for a company like Google , For example, Imitate this success now . I think the distribution, And also created the same commotion Regarding what it can offer, It's difficult after Muse That's already for five Or six or seven or Eight weeks until It was launched by Google.

Yes, from Paradoxes. Good, Generally, I don't know what If Alphabet launches Something within weeks Whether few or not. But I I'm sure they're working On the basis of an agent Personal.

And I think part of This presents a dilemma Innovation for the company Alphabet. As we mentioned, Trade across Agents are a threat Essentially a model Digital advertising that Google dominated it For two decades.

The idea What I am trying to explain is That other companies do not You have too much to lose Compared to Alphabet, on To the best of my knowledge. Therefore, she can To present the idea of creating A great personal agent for achieving The profit will be from Interesting Knowing how you will achieve The company made profits from it.

That means, the service is free. Currently, but there Limits for use Tokens, And you pay for it. this Not the most Innovation in the world, But we have seen models Many different things.

It's a bet on trade. Isn't that so? He uses it People shopping, and this It reminds me of what we talked about In the episode "Meta", where Each pixel turns into Announcing over time Within the app.

Meaning This, for example, That after five years, it will not You need to see an ad Normal on "Meta" or Instagram," but you will see

Also, I don't know how You can see that if you compare All advertising companies, Like Google and Amazon, Airbnb and Uber,

And this applies The same thing on Google. if I wanted to search for a restaurant in Another place, you will see The advertisement, and the idea is Click on it immediately.

As you can see, by clicking here, This is a graph we prepared. Regarding the backlog of orders in Google Cloud and how it multiplied fivefold times during the year. However There is a huge concentration between OpenAI and Anthropic clients Specifically.

This does not mean that we are A state of madness, and it doesn't mean The market is about to The collapse. But if Things got worse, then The risks are increasing significantly.

Large, and reaches a stage You feel it, at least For me, we live A moment of great collapse.

Simply put, it is: if you Own the best companies Which she believes You will benefit over 10 Years of gains Productivity and benefits Economics of Intelligence Artificial, it will be It's all right in the end.

Therefore, For this reason, when not I know how it will change Things, if I own Shares in Amazon or Google, I'm confident Exactly from them You will both benefit from that. For a period of ten years.

I don't know Whether it will happen economic bubble during Two or three years, but I I'll be fine after ten Years.

Despite The significant growth that Computing services achieved it Google Cloud Amazon and Microsoft In the past two years, However, this is not due to Customer change For their cloud services. but rather It comes down to joining More customers, then Google users move Sweet for a long time Google Cloud.

It is true that Amazon had an advantage Leadership, but you don't see it A change in customers.

Yes. No, I think it's Important point, I think I mentioned earlier that Annual increase rate The profits amounted to 81%. I meant 51%, but maybe , Wait a quarter of a year or Two quarters, but it remains astronomical figures in every Confirmation, and regardless of The fact that many of them Returning to Google's work Cloud, which has seen growth Huge.

We talked about that A large part of that It returns to providing services Computing for the company Anthropic, for example Example. There are also The fact that Amazon Alphabet and Microsoft collectively invests in Companies like SpaceX Anthropic and Open A any.

This is evident in the image Unrealized gains. Therefore, If this proves to be just A bubble, part Significant profit growth What we witnessed last year The past will effectively be lost.

Because it was just an illusion. Isn't that so? as you know Theoretically, the value is Open AI, this amount, Therefore, you can Microsoft reports growth A certainty in profits.

But If the rating collapses, They will have to cross out all that. Anyway, I think The real question is, As the presentation indicates The introduction is: Is Sustainable profits (E) here? Because you won't pay

But it does not face commercial disruption tremendous in the same way Which the search service is facing Google.

So, as I mentioned, Google has launched another agent Within ten weeks, This will change the picture Entirely.

Second, the agents They compete with each other, Isn't that so? Companies like Alphabet, Meta, and Cloud seek All of them to provide agents Everyone wants to Their use, therefore, They strive to provide the best Results and more benefit.