Everything Money on $ICE (Nov 2, 2026)

Intercontinental Exchange , also known as ICE for short. This does not refer to the famous ICE. It owns the New York Stock Exchange, along with a host of other major exchanges, clearing houses , and even mortgage programs .

Its stock has remained relatively stable this year, which is interesting for a company with consistent growth.

If the company continues to grow while the stock price remains stable , the stock price may become cheaper compared to its earnings. So, what are the reasons for optimism? Well , the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has the infrastructure on which the entire financial world is based.

Once banks and traders build their entire businesses around a particular stock exchange , they rarely leave it . The conversion costs are high, and increasing the number of traders generates more activity, which attracts more traders.

It's a wonderful self-reinforcing cycle. In addition, there is a steady and recurring income from selling data and software.

Its clearinghouses are also at the heart of massive financial trading operations, ensuring that both parties receive what they are owed. It is a key role and is heavily protected by the organization , which prevents new competitors from entering.

This combination of size, familiarity, and organization is one of the strongest competitive advantages you will find anywhere.

When we have a strong competitive advantage, we have given the company a premium over its market value. Observe how the company makes its profits. ICE earns higher profits when markets are active and volatile , but its data and software continue to generate profits even in quiet times. This represents a good margin of safety.

Remember that we have recently experienced a volatile bull market. So, if we suddenly enter a bear market, we should ask: How will revenues be affected? Now, let's assume a downward scenario.

One of ICE's sectors, the mortgage program, is linked to the volatility of the housing market, which can slow down considerably when interest rates are high. Where are the interest rates now ?

Regulators may one day turn to the fees the company charges for trading and data. But at its core, this is a critical infrastructure that is difficult to replace.

So, let's approach it from our own perspective. It is a company with a market value of $90 billion. Now, guys, there's something I don't like hearing. Market value $90 billion.

Look at the company's value here, $230 billion. I hope that a large portion of this money is short-term debt that they are holding in cash. This may be true, but it represents a huge value to the company, which has $140 billion in debt .

Imagine, their free cash flow is only $4 billion a year, which is a very high figure .

I will move directly to analyzing the eight pillars. Most of this money is short-term debt. Let's take a look at the balance sheet . Of their total liabilities of $144 billion, only $24 billion is long-term debt.

However, when their free cash flow does not exceed $3.8 to $4 billion annually, this figure remains high compared to their debt. Therefore, I think one of the most important elements here is understanding the size of their debt.

Not only that, but they are distributing $1.1 billion of their $3.9 billion free cash flow as dividends. So, if you have 24 bills, here's why I'm worried about debt.

I want to clarify this. We live in an environment with high interest rates that could get worse. My question to AI now is: What is the average interest rate on ICE's long-term debt and its average maturity date?

What I'm asking here is that I want to know when they will have to start refinancing their debts. Because if that is imminent and the average interest rate is very low, for example, let's assume they have to refinance in two years and their average interest rate is 5% because they got it years ago.

For example, suppose they have to refinance their debts within two years and their average interest rate is 4.5% or 5% because they obtained them years ago . They will experience a significant decrease in their cash flow.

So, as of December 31, 2025, the weighted average cost was 3.7%, and the weighted average maturity was 14 years. Well, they still have a long way to go. They have 14 years before they have to refinance their debts.

But look at the percentage of 3.7%. Let's assume it was 1.4 years instead of 14 years. Believe me, that rate will rise to 5.5% or something like that, and they will suddenly lose another half a billion dollars a year in cash flow.

Oh, there's one more thing I'd like to mention. Look at these low returns on capital here: 7% and 6%. This is not good. It is true that they have a low interest rate on debt of 3.7%, but they barely make any profit from capital returns.

Therefore, there isn't much left for the shareholders.

Let me explain that to you. Because this is a very important measure, but it is often misunderstood. When you start a business, you can borrow money or get investors, which is known as capital.

Each requires a return. If you are borrowing money, let's assume they are asking for a 6% return on the debt. Currently, the yield is 3.7%, but let's assume it's 6%, and let's assume as an investor you want a 10% yield.

Okay , the average return, let's say it's 50% debt and 50% equity, would be 8%. So, if you need to provide a total return of 8% to cover 6% of the debt and 10% for investors, it means they are not achieving that return.

Therefore, they are not making enough money to repay their investors. This is what is called not making an economic profit. This is not a good thing. You don't want that.

Yes, I'm sitting here looking at this and saying to myself, "Man, this is a really tough company. You have to buy it for a very low price based on its return on capital and its huge debt." I feel somewhat hesitant about it .

But let's see what the eight pillars look like. The number of outstanding shares increased slightly. The return on capital is weak. Long- term debt is high. It is true that revenues, net income, profits and cash flow have increased, but everything else is in "X" condition, and this leaves me with a feeling of anxiety .

This doesn't worry me too much , but I look at it and say, "They'll have to find a way, they're paying out these dividends. I do n't know. It's a tough company for me."

Let's see what the analysts think. Analysts expect good profit growth. 17%, 9%, 12%, 12%, and 14%. This is very good. very good. Now, what is the current share price? 158. So, if they manage to sell it within 4 years at a lower price, the return on capital will be poor. 15 times this price, meaning the share price would be $200.

There is little room for growth, and a lot of debt. As for revenues, the expected growth rates are 11%, 5.5%, 6.5%, and 8%, which are in the middle single digits.

Okay guys, here we are running the stock analysis tool . I have never used the ICE stock analysis tool before, and I will perform this analysis directly now. Firstly, regarding revenue growth, I would choose rates of 3%, 5%, and 7% for the next ten years.

I will conduct a 10-year analysis. As for profit margin and free cash flow, they appear to be close. But free cash flow appears to be consistently higher, though it is declining slightly.

I don't know if this is a trend or not, but I'll put 26, 28 and 30 here. You might say, "Okay, Paul, that's too low." I understand that. It may be so, or it may be completely accurate .

I just wouldn't give this company much trust based on several things here.

Now, what price-to-earnings ratio will I allocate to this company 10 years from now? Well, guys, they have a strong competitive advantage in the sense that it's hard to switch from them, but these returns on capital are very bad .

They have a lot of debt. I look at this and give my personal opinion: I would choose 12, 15 and 18. Then of course my return is 9.5% .

Now, folks, once again , we need a safety margin for these companies. So let's press the analyze button. The stock is currently at 160. Oh my God. I have a low price of 80, a high price of 160, and an average price of 115.

In fact, the situation is not as bad as I expected. I thought it would be much worse, but it's not that bad. But for me, to buy a company like this, I need a very high return, because I don't like debt and I don't like low returns on capital.