KO is a buy; it is a high-quality company trading at a fair valuation supported by strong fundamentals like record operating margins and improved return on invested capital.
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In recent years, Coca-Cola has benefited from consumers increasingly leaving their homes more frequently. Well, because the company has a larger market share in consumption channels outside the home.
You may have noticed when visiting restaurants that you are more likely to see Coca-Cola as an exclusive beverage partner.
Think of a company like McDonald's that has an exclusive relationship with Coca-Cola, Disneyland, and others. There are many exclusive relationships that Coca-Cola has developed over the decades.
Therefore, when people go out more frequently, it's good news for business.
Also, in the near term, the company still faces macroeconomic headwinds like any consumer-oriented business, as people have less money to spend. To counter this, Coca-Cola is focusing on reaching consumers in the areas where they are located with the types of products they are likely to buy.
Therefore, in low-income and less developed countries, the company offers more affordable options. In more developed and higher-level markets, the company is moving towards the luxury categories and offering consumers a higher-priced product, based on the "is it worth it?" mentality.
Well, all of this is going great, but does that mean Coca-Cola stock represents a buying opportunity right now? So, you can see all those trends I talked about in the introduction reflected in Coca-Cola's revenue over the past twelve months.
You can see that during the pandemic lockdowns in 2020, 2021 and early 2022, its revenues were below par. Then you can also see that since the economy reopened, sales have exploded,
Coca-Cola does not have a snack food division. It's all about the beverages, and the company's business is booming with revenues of $51 billion in the past twelve months. Coca-Cola has also received praise from investors for its excellent operating model.
It enjoys close relationships with its packaging subsidiaries, and close relationships with its distribution network.
Things have gone extremely well, with Coca-Cola recording record operating profit margins of 32% over the past twelve months.
This represents almost double the operating profit margin of a company like PepsiCo. This is the main reason why Coca-Cola shares trade at a price premium compared to PepsiCo. Coca-Cola's return on invested capital is also improving, reaching record highs of 17.9%, up from around 10% in 2021.
This far exceeds the company's weighted average cost of capital, which is close to 10%. It has a ratio of approximately 2 to 1 when measuring the return on invested capital against the average cost of capital, which is very good indeed.
Therefore, you can see the difference in ratings between Coca-Cola and PepsiCo.
Coca-Cola's stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24, a high valuation compared to PepsiCo's 13.9. Looking at it separately, Coca-Cola is trading near its highest forward price-to-earnings ratio in several years.
I believe this assessment of Coca-Cola is fair given the company’s improved performance in recent years, accelerated revenue growth, record profit margins, improved return on invested capital, and consumer conditions that support Coca-Cola’s distribution network and its relationships with consumption channels outside the home.
I also like to calculate the fair value of a share using the discounted cash flow model, where I estimate all the cash flows that the company will generate from today to the long term, and discount those flows using the weighted average cost of capital, which I calculated for Coca-Cola at 7.16%, less than half of its return on invested capital.
Therefore, it has a return on invested capital to average cost of capital ratio of more than two to one.
In summary, I calculated a fair value for the stock at $86.60, which is very close to the market price of $85.89. So, no matter how I look at it, Coca-Cola stock seems fairly valued.
I have rated this stock as a buying opportunity since it was trading around $40 per share. I've seen it more than double in size, so I'm pleased to see its performance since the beginning of the year and over the past few years.
Given that it is one of the best companies in the world and is trading at a fair price, I think it is an attractive deal for long-term investors. If you can get one of the best companies in the world at a fair price, I think you're getting a good deal.
Therefore, I reiterate my recommendation to buy Coca-Cola shares, and I have a relatively high level of confidence and conviction that this is a good investment at current market prices, taking into account the potential risks and returns.
What this channel has said about $KO
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has only this one call on this stock.