LITE is well positioned for growth: Q4 revenue rose 110% year-over-year, 1.6T/800G transceiver shipments continue, and OCS revenue should top $100 million next quarter. Supply constraints cap growth but aid pricing; optics may not lead this year, yet at 32.61x forward FY2027 earnings valuation is attractive.
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I no longer have a "LITE" in the field of optics.
Now, we've talked about "New Cloud" and we've talked about memory, and now we move on to optics, and again this is going to be a very long episode , so in the field of optics I have "Lite", don't I ?
Lumintum 's visual production pace is accelerating. We saw fourth-quarter revenues rise by 110% year-over-year and by 25% quarter-over-quarter. There are new capabilities coming, and new products in development.
Therefore, it is a very strong growth story for Lumintum.
Currently, shipments of transceivers for the next optical speed of 1.6 terabytes have already begun, and this volume is expected to continue until the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027.
Not only that, but the 800 gigabyte speed is still being shipped as well, right? Shipping operations are still ongoing. So there doesn't appear to be a decline in either of them, as both will be a huge revenue driver for them.
The other thing they mentioned is that switching photonic circuits adds another growth path. After shipments doubled from the third to the fourth fiscal quarter, this is expected to continue to grow.
Management expects that revenues from optical circuit switching for the next quarter will exceed $100 million.
Again , this visual field is generating small revenues here and there, but I think Lumintum is very well positioned to see this massive growth. They also get other types of revenue opportunities through external light sources for purchasing units.
The first one is expected to be in the second half of the calendar year 2027. Small things like this, right ? There are plenty of growth opportunities in diverse fields, aren't there?
You have ELS technology, you have OCS technology, and then you have the new kind of speeds in the world of optics. There is a step function, isn't there ? All these things eventually start to pile up together, and you see this huge growth in revenue.
We are already seeing strong growth in revenue figures at the moment .
Now, some things that need to be closely monitored. I didn't do that for every single stock, but as I mentioned, there are always risks in other stocks. Regarding supply here, we are already seeing huge constraints in the memory area , but in the optics area we are also seeing very large manufacturing risks at the moment, aren't we ?
Supplies cannot keep up with demand. Therefore, if there are any problems, this limits the extent of revenue growth. At the same time, this can give it strong pricing power.
The other thing is that the company has seen a good amount of growth in its adjusted diluted stock. So, it's something to keep an eye on , but overall, for fiscal year 2027, which ends on July 3, 2027, the forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 32.61.
I repeat, I don't think this year will be the year of optics yet, do I ? With it remaining at 32.61 at a current price of $820, it doesn't look bad. I repeat, there are risks, the market is always risky, but with forward valuations, there is an attraction at this price point right now.