MU earnings were good but price action is weak; Goldman's neutral rating caps upside; speaker leans bearish and would not buy.

we have the results of Micron. It's down a little bit.

Stocks in focus for today are Micron Technology was 0.037% 037% higher in pre-market on Thursday after it posted fourth quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, beating analyst estimates of 50.75 billion and adjusted earnings of $3342 per share, beating estimates of $3145 per share.

because MU is going to be one that is at um driving the market today. I I think earnings were really good. Uh but it is down a little bit, but think about how much it's come up recently.

And that and that's why just as a a lesson when it comes to earnings and you could ask anyone this. I asked uh Tom Sausnoff this who own who owned publicly traded companies and he would say to me I own the company. we would release earnings and I would have no idea where the stock would go and and you know Micron probably was sitting there licking their chops about how that stock would explode on good earnings but you have to remember the 52- week range on Micron is 179 to 1,255.

The stock has 5xed more than 5xed at one point in the last 52 weeks, which is crazy. So, you know, to say, oh, it's good good earnings but not up. That I mean, doesn't matter. Stocks up 5x this year, right?

Nvidia or SanDisk or Micron, they're going to do what they're going to do, but it doesn't mean that it doesn't have these crazy wild intraday swings.

So I'm going to I'm going to talk about Micron for a minute. Obviously Micron had earnings. They're a huge mover. They're a huge influence on on both uh data centers and semiconductors. So they had great earnings yesterday.

And I'm going to read you all the analysts that have that have um reiterated their buy their outperformed their strong buy ratings and increased their price targets versus the one company who kept it neutral on it.

Okay, that's 18 firms that love Micron, reiterate their buys on Micron, and increase their prize targets on Micron.

Goldman Sachs actually reiterated a neutral on Micron and this is the reason why this is exactly this comes right from their report. Goldman S Goldman Sachs expects Micron shares to rise modestly after earnings and guidance speed expectations though gross margin was slightly disappointing.

The analyst sees tight memory supply through at least 2027 and views Micron's new long-term customer agreements favorably, but maintains a neutral rating because the potential upside and risks appear balanced at current prices.

Now, 18 to1 is kind of interesting. And Micron, well, it's down today, but let's be honest. It's down six points today. Seven points right now. Seven points is 7% of Micron's $1,65 price right now or $1,58.

So, I think this is a great sign for Micron. It's a great sign for the semiconductors because this is not down seven. If it was down, it would be it would be down 150 points, but it's not.

It's down seven points. So, I really like the price action on Micron.

So that's what I looked at today really. Micron, Amazon, Microsoft, and Accenture. But again, there are secondary and tertiary stocks that go along with that. And you can certainly trade those, but be careful trading those secondary and tertiary stocks because what happens is if Micron, let's say it starts to tail off and now it's down 20 or 30 points, those secondary or tertiary stocks, they're going to hit you hard because there's a lot less volume in it.

if Micron, let's say it starts to tail off and now it's down 20 or 30 points, those secondary or tertiary stocks, they're going to hit you hard because there's a lot less volume in it.

So, if you have to get out, the volatility is going to hurt you.

looking at the way he was going through the analyst comments for Micron saying okay all these people are upgrading it but Goldman Sachs who's the biggest player on the street is saying hold hold on now and maybe that's why we're seeing some resounding

It everything is really going to be attributed in some form or fashion to Micron today. Now, uh there's two schools of thoughts. one Micron destroyed earnings. Guidance was through the roof. So, there's going to be a

I'm only throwing a little bit of caution to the wind because one, Micron is fixated in a pretty tight range. Number two, uh there was a massive skew on calls versus puts yesterday.

So that tells us how a lot of retail, maybe even Wall Street is trading this. They're certainly looking more up than down.

And number three, because of that, especially with at least one more day to the end of the week, it's still going to face a big volatility crush being at the range that they're opening right now.

So, you know, for me, I see a lot more buyers looking to dump sellers to try and see if it's going to hold. I think Micron balances at some point today, maybe even early on. I think it's going to pull back and then if there's going to be a breakout, it's going to be a diptorip move.

Now, this is where we'll see a lot of those buyers join back in and try to play the upside momentum. And again, broadly seeing AI as strong as it was this morning. It's going to be really interesting to see if the demand continues to follow in outside of just a pop.

And if it does, then we may see the expected move happen a little bit more intraday as opposed to, you know, uh, aftermarket when they had reported.

Now, if they dump and there's no bottom and they don't slow down, this is where things could get really nerve-wracking for the markets where we could see one drop. Um especially relative to you know a lot of retail traders, a lot of buyers trying to come in, you know, keep trying to buy into these pullback pullbacks getting run over and then next thing you know we could be pressing against this range which is a gap fill and that 1012 plus that psychological price and anything underneath that that starts bringing in the really negative narrative on Micron and a lot of these other AI names.

And so, we're going to see some downside pressure early. I'm pretty sure we're going to see some buyer demand off the lows. If we don't break out vertically, this is just going to get hammered down and this is where things could really start getting ugly ugly.

So for more for my approach to the morning, it's going to be pretty aggressive on pullbacks. But uh again, if we start seeing that crack in the dam and we start seeing things leak, this is where buyers have to be really patient.

This is where traders have to be willing to trade both sides. And this is where I tell people, trade what you see, not what you think.

And you know, today could be a really bad, you know, trap day for the bulls. uh if things get ugly and if thing balances out, this could be a day that the bulls have been waiting for for weeks on weeks here.

You know, when I started trading in 2007, I didn't trade off of a chart. I traded off of, you know, level two, uh, data and traded off the trading dom and I was just always looking for stack bids or asks and try and lean off of those levels and just hotkey in.

So price action and, you know, participation is always going to be important.

um you know once we start seeing you know certain kind of levels break you know points of emphasis where a lot of potential retail or institutional eyes may be watching you know it's more of like a cause and effect theory you know I I talked about a lot this week are we going to trade under possibilities or probabilities and possibilities you know are more you know far more speculative you know they're what we hope or what we could possibly see where probabilities with the course of price action, trading behavior, market demand really gives more of a concentrated, you know, percentage of success based on how it's going to perform.

And so follow-th through breakouts to the downside or upside you know for me the scenario outlined just because of the trading situation uh you know the dynamics of what we have seen when there's high expectations for stocks and not much movement you know you have to bring in the other equative measure of the option markets and you know this being an extremely high beta high V I high implied V name you know we know for those that don't know what a volatility crush is if there's no price movement people are just going to see their premium meltdown loss to start to compound and due to the cost of entry, you know, right?

The the price to do business, you know, disciplined traders will be willing to accept the loss and looking to salvage and and and that's what every good trader should do, right?

Capital preservation. They'll be looking to at least try and retain some of their uh cash back. And then the undisiplined trader will buy into like at the money calls at like $45 and just let it melt away and not take action.

And uh I just feel like, you know, when we're dealing with a stock like this, we're going to see a lot more people be more preemptive, more reactionary, and lesser people that are willing to gamble and risk at all.

Um especially when, you know, we're talking about people smaller account sizes that, you know, just felt Micron was going to be the one. that's the one that's going to double or triple my account today and they're going to be in a world of hurt if we don't go up.

So, you know, there's two courses of action. There's certain expectations of course, but until the market opens, we'll never know the market, you know, the trading is always going to be the truth, right?

The tape is in the volume. And that's really going to help us kind of guide what we should expect today. Uh whether we're going to see Micron go up or down or possibly both.

I think that's more relative to something like Micron. I think that would be relative to a stock having, you know, really big news, fundamental news, uh, that could explode the IV and then as soon as it slows down, the IV crush comes in.

and just looking what else we got. We'll see. We'll see what Micron does. That's on our list anyhow at the open.

Q's and uh I'll put Micron in the box to see what we got going on for this opening couple minutes together. Okay. Uh right now Micron heading lower. See if it has a reversal or anything.

micron. I mean, I think the thing to watch I'm not going to uh I'm not going to trade it myself, but yeah, if this looks like it's going to get in the range of positivity, you see if you get that gap on it, because I wouldn't consider this to be negative right now.

Um, options premium though, very expensive to trade this thing. It's it's within that where it makes one power tick and goes positive. Let's see if it's teasing us or not. Right. Is it a trap? I don't know.

Hamid, I agree. This is this is why people love the stock market because it's a soap opera where there's never a repeat. Um, so look what's happening with it. H pulling pulling away.

It was like looking like it could blow through that high and then just came off a couple points.

Um, notice I am not trading it. This is just more and and this is based on like what our guess at. We're we're processing the information for the day. all right. Getting back within that range if it wants to blow through.

I think BJM 6%. Oh, there we go. Positive on micron. That was that one power surge up.

I mean, this thing could be 1,075 in 2 minutes. You know, has people leaning the wrong way. Never went down. But we're going to remember everything we heard this morning as we process how this is trading.

We're going to remember that Goldman note. Coleman didn't love it. Will that put a cap on the ceiling?

171 micron. Wow. It was 10 1,50 like couple minutes ago. So, this is a this is a real real reser reversal, but I'm still not convinced. Certainly went short here, but I'm not convinced.

I am not convinced. Getting convinced. I am getting convinced. Yes. Zach Goldman wants to buy our shares.

just watch because if it comes back the other way like these once it's hovers around what what you'll notice is it hovers around positive or negative, which is a mental big thing.

Um, you get that quick move either way. So, it's like if I were trading this and I'm like, okay, this could go negative now. Like this is where I buy like the 1030 puts. Yeah. It just they moved a point in a second.

Um because it it's it it's like once it gets in like within a couple points of that positive or negative, the next tick is down. It's moving like three points at a clip, which is crazy.

So there we go. So Goldman's Goldman's cap on the ceiling, like we discussed, did limit the upside of that first move.

I like the way this group is moving on and look at the names we're watching. ACN, Micron, uh, Nvidia, stuff like that.

In uh wait, what in MU? What are you talking about? Um, MU Amory said we are landlocked inside yesterday's formations.

so we'll see. Uh so MU I mean we're starting to we're starting we'll give it five more minutes right to see if if this market can develop conviction any other way.

Where's our micro? I mean, I I tend to lean to the bearish side, but I it feels like we want to go negative today. Um, but who knows? We'll see. MU1046. I I I would not be a buyer right now, you know.

it's going to be the same thing like we saw with Micron where when it gets around that positive negative number, you get that big wild swing.

Uh Micron, let's see where it is. Oh, there we go. Here we go. So, we are There it goes. You see this? Do you see that 50 cent drop in the cues below the low of the day? That power down move uh with Micron at his low.

So, we are heading lower now. We are we are heading lower now.

Micron is towards the lows.