MU is undervalued with a forward PE in the fives; strong earnings beats and expected HBM price increases/supply constraints support a bull thesis.

Micron, the most popular memory stock. I would say, one of the most popular semiconductor stocks on the market right now, just released their earnings report. The stock price has remained fairly stable despite delivering exceptional earnings, great revenue, and incredible guidance.

In today's episode, I will analyze in detail the company's valuation and, more importantly, what management has said for the upcoming quarter and the next year or two. As I said, today we will learn more about Micron.

Although I do n't own any shares of Micron, I enjoy analyzing this company because it provides a great insight into the entire industry.

So, comment below and let me know if you are buying or selling Micron after this earnings report?

In my opinion, the income was quite good. I mean, the biggest positive thing about this stock is that it was trading at a forward PE ratio of 7.17 before earnings , right ? And after the earnings, they exceeded expectations and clearly the next months will be even better.

So, the forward PE ratio is probably trading in the fives, which is really incredible.

And I know the market and a lot of investors were saying, "Jose, this needs to be re-rated somehow." And when this happens, investors will be extremely excited.

In my opinion, if Micron continues to deliver results like this , you will see the stock price increase even if the forward PE ratio does not increase, but the multiple remains the same.

So, if you are optimistic about Micron, that is another advantage.

So, for Micron's fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, yes, they just finished their fourth quarter , they reported revenue of about $54.2 billion. Which was 6% more than expected. That was the expectation.

And in terms of earnings per share , they earned $33.42 cents in the quarter , which is 5.7% higher than expected.

Now, for the next quarter , they have given guidance of around 6.15, which is around 8% higher than the consensus. So, BB is a triple B and the stock remains almost unchanged. This at least gives you some indication in after hours that expectations are very high for Micron.

Now, what we are likely going to see in the coming days is an increase in Micron's valuation from analysts and this could create a positive sentiment towards the stock price in the short term.

When we look at the estimates, these are the numbers. The fourth quarter revenue estimate was around 51, exceeding 3 billion. Earnings per share were estimated at $31, exceeding estimates by $1.81.

And its outlook was also much higher than expected.

Now, next quarter guidance, as we've seen, revenue is 60 to 63 billion. The estimate was about 57. Micron expects earnings per share to be between $37 and $39. The estimate was about $35.40.

For this quarter , pricing again played a key role. So, in the case of DRAM, revenue grew 27% year-over-year. NAND has grown by 42% year-over-year. So, the NAND market is still heating up.

Now, in terms of bit shipments , DRAM grew in the mid-single digits and NAND grew by 10%. So, the volume of products sold has increased, but the number of shipments versus revenue growth tells you where the real story is being created now.

Currently, what is driving revenue growth is price per bit and this is growth compared to the previous quarter. So, DRAM has grown to a high tine and NAND has grown by about 30%.

And it's important to note because, again, this is one of the most exciting things about memory space. Currently, there has been a slight slowdown in consistent growth. If you remember, DRAM grew by about 60% last quarter , and the quarter before that it grew by the same 60%, but now we are seeing higher volumes.

So, I wonder if the market is a little bit thinking, "Hmm, is this going to change?"

Now, management has given us guidance for fiscal year 2027. They are expecting prices to increase at a more moderate pace. So, they are seeing continued price increases , but obviously, when you have higher numbers, that higher number rule starts to work.

So, maybe you'll see revenue growth and the numbers grow very nicely, but on a percentage basis or a consistent basis, it's not as unusual as it used to be. However, they fear further price increases in the coming quarters.

Now, even though the quantity of bits has increased, the supply remains limited. So, this is the industry's bit shipment growth forecast for DRAM. DRAM growth will be in the mid-20s in 2026, and in the early 20s in 2027 and 2028.

However, Micron expects a narrower market in 2027 and 2028. So, even if you continue to grow, right ? You're growing shipments by 20% every year , which is huge , right? Despite this growth, which is huge, Micron still expects a narrow market in both 2027 and 2028.

Now, when I hear something like that, right? This makes me extremely optimistic for the rest of the industry , doesn't it? For cloud players, if a limited amount of memory can be produced, it means that only a limited number of chips can be produced.

If a limited number of chips can be made , that means cloud players and those with compute power will make a lot of money, right? Because the demand for AI will continue to grow.

I think the demand for AI in 2027 will be much higher than it is today. The same situation will occur in 2028. So, if your shipments increase by only 20%, you can only produce a certain number of more chips.

And remember, theoretically each new generation of chips is using more memory— CPUs, GPUs, AI servers, HBM, the list goes on. So, even if you're increasing supply, that does n't mean you can make more chips than before with the same amount of memory , right?

Because it depends entirely on the quality of the memory number. So, to me, this indicates that the semiconductor market will remain narrow as well. And this gives me the opportunity to believe that a disruption will prolong the cycle of the memory and AI sectors , which makes me very optimistic for the AI industry.

Now, HBM bit growth should be faster than conventional DRAM through 2028. Now, the market has two different speeds. The outlook for AI infrastructure is quite strong, which makes sense, right?

A large part of the demand is going there. And they are seeing a somewhat weak consumer market. PC and phone sales are expected to decline by double-digit percentages in 2026. Premium device revenue and memory content are increasing.

Supply constraints are also slowing the growth of server memory. So, we could have achieved faster growth here, but there are limitations in the consumer sector. There is also a slight downside because memory is very expensive, and now I won't buy a very cheap phone because the price has increased by about 50 percent due to the increase in the cost of its components or bill of materials.

So, the consumer market is weak. This was expected. Server unit growth is still high, but supply constraints are slightly slowing down the growth of the memory market. So, if we had more supply , it could actually increase.

Data center SSD revenue reached nearly $10 billion in the fourth quarter , which is quite good. Now, we talked a little bit about HBM , right? And also the price. They found that HBM prices will start to be re-determined in 2027.

The vast majority of HBM supply for calendar year 2027 is contracted and its price will increase significantly. The new pricing will be effective from the beginning of the 2027 calendar year. Um, so it's pretty exciting.

And management has noted that their gross margins will remain weak in the first quarter. It will increase from then on. And that explains the whole thing , doesn't it? If the new prices start in the 2027 calendar year, it would theoretically be the second quarter of their 2027 fiscal year. So, they should see that price increase.

HBM4 production continues to increase. HBM4E is planned for late 2027. The shipping time for the Nvidia and HBM collaboration has been kept secret , but they are working on it.

Now, the visibility of the agreement until 2030 was another big news for them. They have 26 multi-year ' take or pay' strategy customers. These agreements cover 35% of estimated revenue through 2030.

They cited $32 billion in customer financial commitments, primarily cash deposits, and $150 billion in RPOs, or residual performance obligations, measured at the lowest contract price.

So, it's actually a very positive aspect that they've given us their RPO for the next few years, which is $150 billion. But, they did that based on the lowest price of memory. Now, it's interesting that they're being very cautious , but if you look at the high price, that RPO number could have been much, much higher.

They have told us when the new capacity will come in, we see new HBM packaging coming in early 2027 and phase one production starting at ID1 in Idaho in mid-2027. In Taiwan, you will receive shipments of many products.

They have many different benefits for different types of products. And from this calendar, you can pretty much see that nothing major is happening in the near future. A lot will happen by the end of 2028 when large-scale production begins.

So, meaningful DRAM and NAND fabric volumes will come a few quarters after the first output. So, even in the case of initial production, it will take several quarters for actual product improvements or supply improvements to occur.

Therefore, some of them may not see significant production before 2029.

Free cash flow reached $33.2 billion. This is incredible. Huge amount of free cash flow. And they are increasing capital expenditure, right ? They noted that net capital expenditure is increasing.

In the first half of fiscal year 2027, they expect to use about $25 billion. In the first quarter alone, it was about 11.5 billion. Isn't that right ? So, a total of $25 billion for the first half.

They said that in the second half it will be higher than in the first half. That is, capital expenditure in 2027 will be at least more than $50 billion. And most of this increase compared to the previous plan is for capacity building by the end of 2028 and construction thereafter.

So, it's basically about building the factory or fab structure now , but that will take time and then they'll have to spend money on equipment. The market may not like it. The positive side here is that they are building this factory because they have a contract and they want to make sure they can supply the production as per the demand.

So, they are working based on demand, not by building a factory first and then sitting back hoping. It's the other way around. The demand is already there and they are creating it to meet that demand.

Great balance sheet, right ? Net cash of approximately $68 billion. This includes $12.7 billion in customer cash deposits. This is crazy. $68 billion in cash. They expect to start returning money to shareholders starting December 9th, when the two-year period of incentives received under the CHIPS Act will be over.

They are currently unable to buy back shares, but they have stated that after December 9th, 100 percent of the excess cash will be returned over time, primarily through share repurchases.

They currently have authorization to repurchase $2.2 billion in shares. I would n't be surprised if they announced on December 9th, " Look, we're going to buy back $50 billion of shares over the next few years or increase that amount through some massive program.

" The quarterly dividend is about 15 cents per share. It is probably not impossible to increase this dividend.

Now, let's talk about gross margin. Gross margin fell to 87 percent in the fourth quarter. They expect it to be around 86 percent in the first quarter. They noted that one of the biggest reasons for this is high compensation costs on inventory and other costs of running the factory.

They are paying their employees a lot more , which is a logical reason, right? You certainly do n't want those engineers or manufacturing players to go to SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung or anywhere else.

Therefore, they must be paid well. They are assuming the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 as the lowest level of gross margin. From that time on, the process of increasing HBM prices will begin.

Therefore, gross margins are likely to be quite strong after the first quarter.

So, what should investors watch next, right ? It is clear that the revenue target has been exceeded. In my opinion, sustainability is the question that the market keeps asking.

They have already told us that 2028 is going to be good, and even 2029 has the potential to be good. We see that there are not many major changes coming soon. However, the thing to watch out for is HBM's new pricing in 2027 and the recovery of gross margins after the first quarter.

They already told us that. We need to ensure that management sticks to their word. If not, some questions will be raised. It is also necessary to ensure that the work to increase production is being done on time.

That is, factory efficiency, cash flow, and customer demand, right? Share buyback program, how will it happen after December 9th? Contract coverage, what else can we get there ?

And the consumer sector, what's happening in that industry, even though it's not that big of a market anymore.