Micron is a buying opportunity: Chinese memory competitor news is bad and long-term contracts may lower ASPs as competition rises, but enough safety margin remains. At $989 versus his $1400 fair value, he sees ~42% upside over next 12 to 18 months; effects unlikely before 2028. He favors a peer with a stronger moat.

We have some unfortunate news for semiconductor companies , including Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others, So, I wanted to share with you the details of this announcement and what it might mean for some competitors , and more specifically for Micron and SanDisk.

Is this a buying opportunity for these two companies when the price drops? Therefore, shares of companies such as Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and other stocks in the South Korean market fell by between 2 and 4% on the back of this news .

News reports indicated that Chinese memory manufacturer Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced significant progress in the design of a new memory cell aimed at increasing storage density, an area of innovation also pursued by the world's largest memory manufacturers , including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Therefore , news of this technological advancement by one of the competitors leads to a drop in the shares of all these other companies .

So, what do I think this means for Micron? There was an interesting question from one of my channel members asking me, you know, why am I more optimistic about Nvidia compared to Micron?

They are similarly achieving significant leaps in revenue and operating profitability as a result of the increasing demand for artificial intelligence , and you could argue that Micron is doing better, and indeed it is .

If you look at revenue growth and operating profit margins, you'll find that Micron has performed better in recent quarters compared to Nvidia. Micron has just achieved two consecutive quarters with an operating profit margin exceeding 80%.

I have never seen a company do that even once in my entire career in corporate research, which has involved 2,000 to 4,000 hours a year and hundreds of companies and thousands of financial reports.

I have never seen a company before Micron achieve an operating profit margin in any quarter that exceeds 80%. Micron has just done that for two consecutive quarters, and is expecting a third consecutive quarter of similar performance.

So, a great performance, huh? The best performance of any company I see right now comes from Micron. However, I would rank Nvidia higher as a buying opportunity compared to Micron.

I have rated Micron as a buy opportunity for several years now, and have confirmed that several times this year. So, I'm optimistic about both companies, but more so about Nvidia.

This is an example of why. I feel , and most analysts feel, that Nvidia has a stronger competitive advantage compared to Micron. Nvidia's technology has a stronger defensive trench than Micron's.

And today we see evidence of that. Over the weekend, news emerged of developments that cast doubt on Micron's advantage.

Indeed, as you know, SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are very similar in terms of technology. So, Micron, as you know, is not at the forefront of technology; it is not a leader in its industry in the way that Nvidia is a leader in its industry, where it is at least one step ahead of the competition .

For this reason, I am more optimistic about Nvidia than about Micron. But I remain optimistic about Micron. Following today's price reaction, Micron shares are trading at $989.

I calculated a fair value of $1400. Therefore, I see the potential for an increase of approximately 42 % from here over the next 12 to 18 months for Micron.

The entire production of the sector has been booked for this year and next year. Micron is even saying that 2028 is likely to be the year in which its products are completely sold out.

Thus, whatever the effects of this development from the Chinese memory company may be , they are unlikely to appear before 2028 at the earliest.

Now, there are some clauses in the contracts that Micron signed with its customers that may result in a decrease in the selling price of its components that it has already contracted to sell.

Remember that Micron talked about a price range in those long- term strategic agreements with customers.

Therefore , if the average selling price of those components decreases, that will be a negative thing, and although the company will continue to sell, the average selling price may be lower.

This could be a result of increased competition, which is something I expect to happen anyway.

When an industry is in this kind of situation, when a company achieves operating profit margins above 80%, and has competitors like SK Hynix and Samsung who can create similar products, and other companies in neighboring industries that may expand into these categories, there will be increased competition.

And I was expecting that . Again, this is one of the reasons why I do n't rank Micron higher than Nvidia and some other companies that I'm more optimistic about than Micron.

So, to answer the question: Is this a buying opportunity for Micron? I think so. Is this bad news for Micron? I think so, but there is enough safety margin here to remain justifiable as a buying opportunity in Micron.

I'm not as optimistic about SanDisk as I am about Micron.

But I will focus on the less prestigious names in these categories, including Micron, and even Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, while Nvidia remains an excellent choice here.