SFM is a long-term buy at current levels due to low valuation (12x earnings), margin expansion potential from private labels, and strong return on capital, outweighing regulatory risks.
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And the last stock, this was a noisy trip, Sprouts Farmers Market. A specialty grocery store for people who actually read ingredient labels. Fresh, natural, and organic food.
Health-conscious shoppers tend to protect their grocery spending even when times get tough. But they have a federal class-action securities lawsuit targeting their CEO and CFO for allegedly misleading investors.
In a state of optimism, Michael Bury just added Spruces and made it a full-fledged investment hub. The stock is trading at only about 12 times earnings. Guys, another optimistic attitude I love.
Look at their gross profit margin here, 37 percent. This is high for a grocery store. Look at their net profit margin, it's getting better. Kroger achieves about 1 to 2 percent, and they are at 5.6 percent.
Why? Guys, they also have their own brand. Their own brand has gross profit margins of 40, 50, 60 percent and more. And they continue to add more to that.
This will continue to increase the profit margin for this company. I think this is a grocery store that can make 7-8 percent as a net profit. Now, the pessimistic outlook is due to the Securities and Exchange Commission's investigation. This is a problem.
The question we should ask ourselves is, what value can it reach? I started buying Sprouts stock when it was in the low thirties. Guys, the stock went crazy and I sold covered call options at 160 or 165 and lost the shares.
But once I lost it, I was okay with that because I didn't think the stock was worth anything close to that price.
Now look at the stock price. It's at $65 per share. I was adding to it while it was falling below $80 a share. So I got it in the early thirties, sold it at 165 I think, and started adding it back in at 80.
That was my strategy because the stock became completely unbalanced at 180, 165 and 170 in my opinion.
So, the things I like about him. High return on capital. This is especially important for a company that is growing, and this company can still triple its size.
It is currently selling at 12 times earnings and 17 times free cash flow, but their free cash flow is heavily influenced by the fact that they spend a lot of money on growth. Therefore, I will focus here on their net income.
Okay, let's take a look at their eight pillars. Eight amazing pillars, except for their debts. But remember that their free cash flow is less than their net income, and their debt includes all the leases they have.
Analyst estimates. Their profits aren't growing as much as you might think. 7.5 %, 10%, 12%, and then even over the next four years, but revenues grow by 7.5%, 9.5%, 10% and 13%.
Guys, this is amazing growth. As they grow more and more, their profit margin will become bigger and bigger as they add more of their brand to the shelves.
Revenue growth rates of 4%, 6% and 8% were set. Remember that this includes normal price increases as well as new store locations. Therefore, I think this is a conservative assumption.
I set a profit margin of 5%, 6% and 7%. They have already achieved approximately 6%, so I am comfortable with this. After that, I used P/E ratios of 16, 19 and 22.
I like the fact that their return on capital continues to improve. Finally, my own 9.5% return. The stock is currently at 65. I have a low of 80, a high of 185, and an average of 122.
Guys, every stock in my portfolio, based on what I consider reasonable assumptions, has the potential to generate annual returns of over 15% over the next 10 years based on my average assumptions.
This is what I invest in. I am not investing in today's story. I invest in these companies for the long term.
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What this channel has said about $SFM
Everything Money has only this one call on this stock.