Parkev Tatevosian, CFA on $SOFI (Oct 30, 2026)

SoFi announced quarterly financial results that exceeded expectations across the board. Given the macroeconomic difficulties of the past three months, these results seem all the more impressive.

Furthermore, the management team provided strong forecasts for the remainder of this year and for many years to come. Given the management team's reputation for being conservative in their expectations—that is, they usually exceed the expectations they set for themselves— investors were very pleased with the results, and the share price rose by more than 15% after the company announced these figures .

Of course, I'm happy about that . I upgraded my rating on SoFi stock to "buy" since it crashed to $18 per share earlier this year.

And now, even after this increase, it costs $16.70. Therefore, it still hasn't reached the level at which I upgraded it as a purchase opportunity. So, in this video, I wanted to review the details of SoFi’s latest quarterly financial results , highlight what Wall Street and investors liked the most, and update you on my estimate of the company’s fair value.

I reviewed my predictions today. I will update you on my assessment of SoFi stock, whether to buy, hold, or sell.

For the three months ending September 30, 2026, SoFi reported adjusted net revenue of $1.37 billion. This represents a 44% increase compared to the same period last year.

In addition, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 70% to $470 million. In fact, these results were so good that the management team raised its expectations for the full year 2026, saying they now expect adjusted net revenues of $5 billion, representing a 40% increase, and $1.66 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Furthermore, they provided forecasts for 2027, which indicate adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 27% and a net profit margin of approximately 20% . Net revenue growth of 27% for fiscal year 2027 would be a slowdown from this year's growth , but it will be difficult to achieve additional growth on top of the exceptional results they announced this year.

This is truly the first year that SoFi's lending platform business has accelerated to such enormous levels. SoFi continues to grow in terms of membership and adds many new customers.

In fact, they added a record 1.2 million members during the recently ended quarter, and they now boast more than 17 million members.

These are the people who have an account with SoFi. Because of its digital services, it is able to offer services and products to customers that perfectly match what they are looking for today.

Traditional banks bear the burden of thousands of branches that they must invest in, maintain and staff, limiting their ability to innovate new products and adapt to meet current customer needs flexibly.

SoFi wants to be by your side no matter what financial product or financial need you may face in your life. Whether it's a mortgage, car loan, student loan, personal loan, credit card, checking account, savings account, investment account, the list goes on.

So, Sophie wants to be there for you regardless of your financial needs. They want to provide everything for you.

This business model, and this strategy, are extremely risky. It is more difficult to implement, but it carries far greater rewards ; If they succeed in this endeavor, they may grow to become more valuable to customers, and thus generate greater revenue and profits per customer in the long run .

Investors were closely monitoring its technology sector. Remember that they lost a major client last year. Therefore, the technology platform's accounts decreased by 11% year-on-year to 140 million, but they added 6 million new customers compared to the previous quarter.

This is the second consecutive quarter in which they have added millions of new customer accounts to their technology platform. So, this is a good sign. They are recovering from that significant loss of that client, whose identity they did not specify, but they did mention that they lost a major client who moved off the platform.

Therefore, they are now working on gradually developing this technological platform .

This is important because it enables "Sofy" to trade with a higher and more distinctive valuation. If Sophie derives a large proportion of its revenue from loans, its shares will trade at a price closer to a conventional bank valuation, i.e., a price-to-earnings ratio in the high singles or low tens digits.

But if it manages to increase its technology revenue, its shares could trade like technology stocks , which could mean a future price-to-earnings ratio approaching 20, or perhaps even 30.

So, I'm always keeping a close eye on the details of Sofie's loan portfolio. I hope the company will achieve greater loan growth from the student loan sector, the mortgage sector , or even the newly established small business sector, because these sectors are less risky than the personal loan sector.

The personal loans sector is the fastest growing and largest sector for Sofi. Sorry, it's not the fastest growing, but it's the largest for SoFi, and nominally, it's the fastest growing.

So, in this sector, they added about $5.6 billion to the total fair value of loans in the last quarter ended. If we look only at the principal amount of outstanding repayment, it increased from 26.1 billion in the quarter ending June 2026 to 30.9 billion in the quarter ending September 30, 2026, an increase of approximately 4.8 billion on a quarterly basis.

The student loan sector saw the largest increase on record for the company, but it rose by only about 1.9 billion compared to the previous quarter. So, you can see that this growth was less than half the growth of personal loans.

As for the mortgage sector, they actually sold more and more loans were repaid, so the value of the outstanding principal amount of mortgage loans decreased from 2.1 billion to 1.8 billion.

In fact, I would like to see the value of this mortgage portfolio increase because it is safer. It comes with guarantees. If the borrower defaults, SoFi can foreclose on the home and sell it to recover its investment.

However, in the case of personal loans, if the borrower defaults, SoFi has no means of recourse. They can make phone calls and demand payment from the borrower, but ultimately there are no guarantees.

There is no asset that SoFi can seize to offset its losses.

I mentioned the existence of significant macroeconomic headwinds, and SoFi refers to this in small print here, stating that there is a higher weighted discount rate, which reduces the fair value of loans in its portfolio.

There was also a lower weighted nominal interest rate , meaning that SoFi achieves a lower rate of return on the loans it grants. There was a higher weighted default rate, meaning that people SoFi lent to were defaulting at a higher rate than they had been 3 months earlier.

So, all three of these factors are headwinds for business.

And you know, thanks to SoFi for reporting this in such a fine print right here at the bottom of page seven. So, investors are unlikely to find these numbers, but luckily you have someone like me reviewing these financial results.

This particular document consists of 30 pages. I read every page and the fine print so that I can provide you with information to make more informed decisions.

So, you might wonder, if personal loans are riskier, why does SoFi offer so many more personal loans than other types of loans? The answer can be found on this next page here within the financial statements of SoFi.

The reason is that personal loans generate a higher rate of return. It is more dangerous, therefore they can charge higher fees. For personal loans, the average weighted coupon rate was 12.8%, more than double that of student loans at 6.01%.

So, this is why Sofia is offering so many personal loans, because even with the higher default rate, which by the way rose to 5.1% compared to 4.77% in the previous quarter. But look how high that is compared to student loans, where the default rate is only 0.89%, but it's also up from 0.73%.

This weighted average default rate has been highlighted because the obstacles consumers face are increasing, are n't they? 2026 was not a good year for consumers. In fact, they started the year in a very healthy position.

Consumer balance sheets were relatively stronger than they had ever been . But 2026 was not a good year. The consumer, the average consumer, is paying more for their daily living expenses because of tariffs that have raised prices on everything from toys to electronics to food.

Consequently, people had less money. A study released today indicates that the average consumer pays about $1,100 more per year as a result of tariffs. So, that's one obstacle, isn't it ?

Consumers are paying more money and their incomes haven't increased, so this is money coming out of their pockets. Their income, I must say, has increased, but not to keep pace with the cost of living.

On top of that , there was the war in Iran, which caused oil prices to rise . So, this was another increase in the monthly consumer budget for essential spending that you cannot cancel or postpone.

Whether you're commuting to work or taking your children to school, all of these things require driving, and you have to pay for fuel to fill up your car. Thus, the overall consumer balance sheet has deteriorated , and this is reflected in higher default rates.

People are forced to make difficult choices about how to manage their limited monthly budget, which has not increased at the same rate as the rising cost of living. Therefore, their purchasing power is shrinking.

This creates a situation where they are forced to make difficult choices and trade-offs, and some consumers are forced to make this difficult decision to default on their personal loans.

For the third quarter , they achieved record loan volumes of $17 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase. The personal loan sector was the main driver of this amount of 12.6 billion out of 16.9 billion , an increase of 69% year-on-year, including 3.6 billion issued on behalf of third parties, whose appetite for buying loans remains strong but is declining.

SoFi is holding more of these loans on its balance sheet because third-party appetite is waning, which is understandable given their monitoring of default rates and a more challenging macroeconomic environment.

In addition to these figures , the management also provided optimistic projections extending to 2030 , with many of its products expected to generate revenues exceeding $100 million, $500 million, and $1 billion each.

This prompted me to revise my SoFi ratings upwards. Given that management is known for its conservative approach to forecasting, I believe it is reasonably likely that they will achieve the goals they set for investors when they announced these quarterly financial results.

I view the SoFi management team as the complete opposite of how I view the Tesla management team. Tesla consistently exaggerates its promises and understates its achievements. Meanwhile, SoFi consistently understates promises and exaggerates achievements.

As an analyst who sees what management does and assesses their habits, I make adjustments to my estimates based on the reputation the management team is gaining.

Therefore, after reviewing the free cash flow estimates upwards, I concluded that SoFi stock is currently worth about $22 per share compared to the current market price of about $17 even after this significant increase.

Therefore, I still expect a 30% or greater increase for SoFi stock over the next 12 to 18 months, and of course, an even greater increase in the long term for SoFi stock. As I mentioned, I upgraded SoFi stock to a buy opportunity when it dropped to $18 per share, and I made several videos in which I emphasized this buy recommendation as the stock fell further.

So today, after these quarterly financial results, I still see SoFi stock as a buying opportunity.