The Compound on $SPHR (Oct 27, 2026)
SPHR is a story-driven, money-losing company whose stock fell from $175 to $100 on slowing Wizard of Oz growth, but the speaker likes the trade: the gap is erased and $100 was defended, with risk capped by a 15% loss exit. He ignores long-term fundamentals; funding new builds is an open burden, and if buyers do not return at $100 it is over.
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Speaking of unconventional things , I thought I'd share a viewpoint on a stock that...is not part of the S&P 500 index, but rather quite far removed from it . He suffered a very painful blow.
Close the gap and bounce back, and I feel that risk management here is very easy. If the stock crashes, you will exit with a 15% loss. The arrow is " Sphere". Let's look at the graph.
So, this is the setup I was talking about. The gap has been erased. It was defended at the $100 level . Numbers, I mean, this is a stock that depends on its story. The numbers look very bad.
Safir Company is losing money. There was a slowdown in the presentation of "The Wizard of Oz ", and this is why the stock dropped from $175 to $100. But I like this setup . Brother, did the stock hit its lowest point on the day you went to the " Metallica" concert?
maybe. maybe. Well, it's all mixed up in my mind. When did you go to " Safir"? I left... I don't know. Two weeks ago? Give us a quick 30-second review of the " Metallica" show.
I don't know anyone else who went. The best show of my life. Seriously, and honestly. I'm not just saying... the best offer of your life? Yes, I'm not saying that to exaggerate.
How many times have you seen "Metallica" ? I don't...that's strange. I think I've seen Metallica four times, and I'm not a big fan of theirs. I mean, I don't listen to their music at normal times.
But I enjoy it...maybe three times, I don't remember. But I really enjoy seeing them on stage. This offer was unbelievable. But it's not just the events and concerts that take place there.
The Wizard of Oz show is still going strong . It is true that growth is slowing down, but I think it generated revenues of $400 million or so. They have a new release coming next year, which is a rather unusual choice , "Rocky Horror Picture Show".
Who cares? I do n't care about long-term fundamentals. I think you can take a risk here. And if the stock crashes , so be it. Therefore, this is a very conservative proposal. And if I'm right , that's great.
And if I 'm wrong, it will be amazing. No, it's not conservative . It makes sense. It is very clear that buyers entered at the 100 level and said, "Oh, no, no, no, no." This is very low.
I'm buying it. If they do n't reappear at the 100 level, it's over. This tells you something. It tells you that the market views this stock differently than it did previously. I think this is not...this is not lukewarm.
This is how you are supposed to trade. I think the problem here is that they're going to build another one in Maryland, and the cost of the project remains a big open question.
They will have to finance it somehow, or they will have to sell more shares to finance it. It's a building that will cost one or two billion dollars. They are building one in Abu Dhabi.
It...it costs a fortune. Yes, so we don't know anything about the funding for that. This puts a burden on the stock. There are a lot of pessimists, and a lot of short selling , because, as I said , it's a story-driven stock , it's new, and people like to bet against those experiences.
I think that... It is also interesting that the MSG network is what this stock represents. Yes, I know that. This is the MSG network plus Sphere, and the MSG network, as well as the Knicks team that is doing...
They changed the ticket. Correct, correct, correct. It's not a great business . correct. I think...the thing about "The Wizard of Oz", I think what worries people is what will happen when everyone who wanted to go actually goes.
So the solution is: Okay, we 'll have the new thing. I understand "The Rocky Illustrated Horror Show". You know what this is, don't you ? not quite. Well, this was a common thing in the seventies and eighties.
She hadn't really been born yet. It used to be shown in cinemas every Friday night across the country, and all over the world . It was a huge phenomenon and people were dressing up as movie characters.
Tim Rice was the transgender person from Transylvania. It was a very colorful and daring film, and it contained many things that were forbidden at the time and that we laugh at now , but it was considered very scandalous.
People were wearing the clothes of their favorite characters. They would bring acting tools with them. They would go to the cinema in the middle of the night every Friday and repeat all the dialogues of the film in front of the screen.
It was more like a collective ritual, perhaps the first of its kind. If you talk to anyone in their fifties or sixties, they will remember him well. It was extremely important.
And if they manage to revive that experience and present it to a new generation, they will say, "My God, what is this?" People really love wearing costumes and going on unique experiences.
I can only imagine what they are planning at "The Sphere". It might work . Well, that explains that decision, because I was wondering exactly: "Why are they doing that?" Um, I'll look this up on Google later. It was something, it was a really big deal.