TLT is at a historical support level; repeated past bounces suggest potential upside, but current lack of bounce signals possible breakdown.
“"Something ALWAYS Breaks" | Major Black Swan Risk.”
Meet KevinPublished Sep 25 · 2 passages
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If you look at the technicals on TLT, TLT is sitting which which is an average duration about 25-year bond. If you look at the weekly chart of TLT, you'll find that TLT is at this nearly glorious bottom.
We've been at this level on this bond ETF which has been plummeting. We only broke down right over here in 2023, but we've been at this level in 22, been at this level in 24. Been at this level in 25.
Been at this level in 25 again, and here we are again. And every single time we have hit this level, with the exception of right here for a brief period in 2023, we have bounced right back up, which suggests something might be breaking right now.
What this channel has said about $TLT
Meet Kevin has 3 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.
2026-09-29Bullish
I wonder if yield sensitives moved. I mean, a classic yield sensitive would be TLT tried to. And then let's try arcade. Barely more movement in the after hours, but TLT is trying to get back to having lost that line.
Quote at 1:24:59 ›2026-09-25This one
If you look at the technicals on TLT, TLT is sitting which which is an average duration about 25-year bond.