VICI's dividend looks safe: Caesars is 38% of rent roll, but the AFO payout ratio is 74.7% and even a 20% rent cut lifts it to 82.4%; a ~53-54% cut would be needed for 100%. Management guides 3.4% AFO growth vs a 2.2% dividend hike, retaining cushion; with 2-3% dividend growth, upside is 18-40%+. I'm holding.

Is Vichi Property set for a dividend cut? That's what investors are starting to ask. In the last year now, the stock is down by 25% and the starting yield is now at an all-time high for this stock, excluding the 2020 crash.

We're now sitting at an 8% yield for Vichi Property, something that was unthinkable just a few months ago in reality. And Vichi is now trading at its lowest valuation multiple all time. again with the exception of 2020 now trading right at about 9.13 price to AFO multiple.

Keep in mind its historic average over the last 5 years is about 13.78. So incredibly cheap relative to how it's historically traded.

But that lower valuation is undoubtedly justified if the company cannot maintain its current dividend. Number one is Vichi Properties priced as if there's going to be a dividend cut.

And number two, what's the actual probability of a dividend cut?

Now, we can answer that question relatively easy by jumping over to our stock valuation spreadsheet from tickerdata.com link in the description. But if we come up here and plug in Vichi, all the data will load in.

But if we check out our dividend discount model, what we can see right now, if we assume 0% dividend growth for Vichy Properties in perpetuity, then the stock is worth about $20.76 per share.

Well, the stock is trading at $2346. So naturally, there is dividend growth priced into this stock. So, this stock is not yet priced as if there's going to be a dividend cut.

In fact, if we bump this up to 1%, we get very close to the current share price. So, the stock is priced as if we're going to see dividend growth at a rate below inflation moving forward.

But, there is still dividend growth priced into this stock.

Now, here's what's so interesting about this. If you look at the average AFO per share and dividend per share estimates from analyst, at least moving forward for Vichi, what you'll notice is they're projecting both of these to be well above 1%.

So naturally, what's starting to happen is we're seeing some investors continue to believe that Vichi will meet its expectations. It'll meet the guidance they've been issuing over the last few years.

But now we have another portion of the market that does believe that a dividend cut is coming in.

Why do they believe that? Well, it all boils down to one specific issue, and that's Caesar's regional master lease. Caesars currently accounts for 38% of Vich's entire rent roll, and this is a company that is set to go private and will likely be losing visibility into what future rent coverage will actually look like.

Now, here's what's interesting. If we take a look at a document that was put out in December of 2025, what you'll notice during this time period is rent coverage sat at about 1.1 times.

So rent coverage was very small and it's now estimated that they're just barely covering rent at about one times coverage. So they've never missed a rent payment, but rent coverage is low.

And so if Caesars renegotiates a new lease upon being taken private and they no longer have to pay as much rent, what happens to Vichy Properties? What happens to their adjusted funds from operation?

And will it continue to cover the dividend? This is perhaps the most important question and analysis we can do for Vichy.

So, here's what we know about Vichi right now. Their Caesar's rent right now is about $1.25 billion a year. Again, that's roughly around 38% of their entire rent roll share. So, there's definitely some tenant concentration when it comes to Caesars.

There's no doubt about this. We already know this.

Now, the portion of the rent that's really under scrutiny right now is the regional rent, and that's about 740.5 million. So, it's not the full Caesar's rent under scrutiny where there's concerns.

It's the regional rent which to be fair is the bulk of Caesars.

Now again remember dividends are paid out of AFO per share and what we can see right now AFO per share of about $246. The dividend they currently pay out is $184. So the AFO per share payout ratio for Vichy Properties is about 74.7% which in reality is right in line with their target payout ratio.

It's what their management team has stated in the past.

But now we need to run a few different scenarios. What happens if rent gets cut? What if it gets cut by 5%, 10%, 20%, or even 50%, which really you would think would be unthinkable, but we'll run the numbers just to find out.

So, right now, where they stand right now with with Caesar still covering their rental payments, again, the AFO payout ratio is 74.7%. We can see that here.

What happens if we see a 5% reduction in their rent? A 5% rent cut would lead to about 62.3 million in lost rental income. Now, the real question is, how does that correlate to AFO per share?

Well, naturally, this would likely reduce AFO per share to around $241, meaning a decline of 2.3%. So, how does that impact the dividend coverage? Well, this would push the AFO payout ratio to about 76.5%.

Now, their target payout ratio is around 75%, but 76.5% is still very healthy for Vichy Properties. The dividend would still be very well covered. In fact, it'd be covered by about 57 cents per share at that point.

So, overall rental coverage would be about 1.31 times. So, at a 5% rent cut, there's nothing really too much to be concerned about.

Obviously, it wouldn't be ideal in terms of the ability for the company to continue to grow and reinvest back into the business, but as far as it relates to the dividend, I wouldn't be too concerned.

At a 10% rent cut, we can see loss rental income would be around 125 million. This would lead to a decline in AFO per share of 4.6%, but the payout ratio would still be at 78.4%.

We can see the same for 15% and at 20%, a 20% rental cut. This would lose around $250 million of rental income. It'd be a big hit for the company. It would lead to about a 9.3% decline in AFO, but at that point, we can still see the AFO payout ratio is 82.4%.

Now, obviously, we certainly don't want it to go that high, but the dividend is still undoubtedly still covered at those levels, and it would still leave them with 39 cents per share of cushion.

So, how much would the rent actually have to get cut for the company to go over a 100% AFOP ratio? Well, at 30%, you can see we're still not there. At 40%, we're still not there.

At 50%, we start getting very close. And what you'll see is the numbers at around 53, maybe 54%, that's about how much of a rent cut they would have to see from Caesars to be sitting right at a 100% AFO payout ratio.

These are the numbers and this is perhaps the most important thing you need to understand about Vichy properties right now. So what actually are the probabilities of a rent cut?

Well, it's still very difficult to say, but the reality of a five to even 15, even 20% rent cut is not as much of a threat to the dividend payment as one may suspect.

If management did decide to reduce the dividend, then it's because they want to have the ability to fund more internal growth. But the reality is when we look at these numbers, we can see the dividend will still be well covered.

management is guided to around 3.4% AFO per share growth over the next year. And what's interesting about this is their recent dividend hike was only 2.2%. So typically you'll see dividend growth in line with AFO per share growth if they're already sitting at their target payout ratio, but it's clear they're providing a little more cushion.

They're retaining more capital to reinvest back into the business and again more cushion for the dividend.

And so while if you look at the average price target from Wall Street, it's certainly been reduced by quite a bit. It wasn't long ago that this number was sitting as high as 34, 35, $36 a share, but now it's down closer to around $30 per share.

But even at current prices, with the way we've seen the selloff, that would still imply 26% upside.

And from a dividend discount model perspective, if they do maintain around 2% dividend growth, that'd be almost 18% upside. And if they pull off 2.5% about 28.5% upside and if there's a world where they don't cut rent and the dividend continues to grow at roughly 3% at that point that implies over 40% upside.

So what am I doing with my Vichy shares? Well, I'm holding. There's no doubt concern about the tenant concentration. It's something I'm keeping up with closely.