Merger creates immediate scale (200M+ subs) but near-term landscape change is unlikely due to debt issues and weak revenue synergy potential.
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Guys, the big news today is that Paramount has officially completed its merger or acquisition deal with Warner Bros. Discovery.
I mean, my short answer is yes, with a big note next to it. I mean, this makes the merged company an immediate major player, absolutely. This gives the combined HBO Max and Paramount Plus services just over 200 million subscribers.
Not only do they lack a good track record of carrying all this debt, but this company, Time Warner, has a long history of strange mergers, which are arguably failures.
There's a lot of talk about combining HBO Max and Paramount Plus or combining non-premium services, but they need liquidity to pay off those debts.
And I'm not currently convinced that there are many people who would subscribe to HBO Max if it were only one dollar cheaper. Look, I really think this is a very strong set of assets in the world of digital streaming.
If they can get through the initial phase, if they can pay off the debts, and move from just surviving to actually investing in the business, but in the near term, I don’t think the landscape has changed much because I don’t think they will be able to pool and achieve synergies on the revenue side in the way they would like.
Lou, do you think there's a chance that this bundle will make it appealing enough for those of us who probably aren't paying for Paramount or HBO Max, whatever they call it now?
The package I subscribe to is through Disney, but it includes "HBO Max". So, I don't know, will it be taken away from me? Will I have to resubscribe to Paramount Max?
When we return, we will talk about potential winners other than Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery.
Well, the biggest and real winner in this deal is David Zaslav and the rest of the Warner Bros. management team. Look, their papers were losing. They didn't know what to do. And now suddenly, they and their shareholders have received a good bonus, and I believe management has received compensation of about $800 million.
Now they have a stronger partner with greater financial resources, such as CBS, which is now owned by the merged company.
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