尽管AI表现疲软，苹果仍被视为安全的科技股；短期看涨，认为期权gamma挤压可能推动股价冲高至接近340美元的新高。
逐段跳播
不过 Don，我对你这里的最后一个标的很好奇。我们来看 Apple。市场对它的这些新产品发布、以及它在 AI 方面的动作有很多乐观情绪。它在本次交易时段走高。年初至今上涨了 21%。你现在会怎么操作 Apple 的交易？
But Don, I'm curious about your last one here. We've got Apple. We've had a lot of optimism about these new product launches, uh, their moves they're making in terms of AI. They're higher on the session here.
Year to date, they're up 21%. How would you approach Apple for trading right now?
是的，Apple 恰好就是，我们可以稍微谈谈基本面。它是一头现金牛。我不觉得我对一些新推出的产品印象有多深。我的意思是，没有什么能接近像 chat GPT 或 claude 那样的东西，对吧？
Yeah, you know, Apple happens to be just, we can get into the fundamentals a little bit. It's a cash cow. Uh, I don't think I'm too impressed with some of the new products out.
I mean nothing comes close to like a chat GPT or a claude, right?
所以在这一点上，我认为 Apple 更像是，可以这么说，科技板块里的安全资产。它是科技界的 Walmart。我相信 Apple 听到这个会很不爽，但它已经变成了科技界的 Walmart。事实就是这样。
So uh at that point I I think Apple is much more if you will it's safety in tech. It's the Walmart now of technology. I'm sure Apple would be disgusted to hear that but it's become the Walmart, you know, of technology. That's really what it is.
也正因如此，我在看一个有点不寻常的交易。这个交易更多是关于，可以这么说，逼近历史高点。我认为如果 Apple 再往上爬一点点，也许到 340 这个区间，它实际上会向上挤压。
And uh to that effect, I'm looking at kind of an unusual trade. This one's it's it's much more about the approaching, if you will, of all-time highs. And I think that if Apple creeps up just a little bit further, it gets maybe to this like 340 range, it'll actually squeeze higher.
散户交易现在非常非常喜欢在创新高时买入。好吧，我们在很多科技股里一次又一次看到这种情况，尤其是最近。我说的就是 gamma 挤压。归根结底，如果 Apple 开始往上爬，到了 338，如果到了 340，散户就会蜂拥而入，他们会买入看涨期权。
而当散户开始买入看涨期权时，实际上会促使做市商把看涨期权卖给他们，然后反过来，做市商就会买入股票，这实际上就形成了一个反馈循环。不知不觉间，股价可能就高出 5 美元、10 美元，好吧？这又是我们所说的 gamma 挤压。
Retail trade right now loves loves to trade into highs. Okay, we've seen it again and again in many of the tech stocks uh especially recently. And what I'm talking about is a gamma squeeze.
And that is ultimately if Apple starts creeping up, it gets to the the 338, if it gets to 340, retail is going to come rushing in, they're going to buy calls. Now, as retail starts to buy calls, it's actually causing market making firms to sell them the calls and turn around.
And the market makers, okay, are then buying stock, which actually forces this into a feedback loop. Before you know it, the stock could be 5, $10 higher, okay? And that's again, it's what we call a gamma squeeze.
要让这个交易发生，是的，我们得再往上爬一点点，但我实际上会采取相当短期的视角，因为正如我几分钟前说的，我对科技板块有点看空，对 Apple 倒没那么看空。在非常近的短期内，我认为 Apple 实际上会，可以这么说，冲到历史高点，而这正是这个交易所布局的。
Now, for that trade to occur, yeah, we got to creep up a little bit further, but I'm actually going to take a fairly short-term horizon because, as I said just a few minutes ago, I'm a little bit bearish on tech, not so much in Apple.
In the very near term, I think Apple actually pops, if you will, to the all-time high, which is exactly what this trade is set up for.
这是 OC 23 到期。这是在下一个财报周期之前，期限相当短，对吧？O 23。我要买入 345 看涨期权。买入 345 看涨期权，同时卖出 350 看涨期权。这个交易以 1 美元净支出完成。
虚值价差，押注向上冲高。Apple 基于 gamma 挤压创出新高。
This is the OC 23 expiration. This is going fairly short duration before the next earning cycle, right? O 23. I'm going to buy the 345 calls. Buy the 345 calls, sell the 350 calls against them.
This trade is done for a dollar debit. Out of the money spread, looking for the pop to the upside. Apple into new highs based on gamma squeeze.
好的，Rick。那么，在我们看 Apple 的时候，你是否也看到了我们可能给这轮上涨再添一些燃料的可能性？是的，但首先，Claude 和 Siri 根本不该出现在同一个句子里。我觉得我必须得这么说一句。
All right, Rick. So, as we look at Apple here, are you also seeing the possibility that we could add some more fuel to this rally? Yes, but first of all, Claude and Siri do not even belong in the same sentence. I feel like I just have to kind of say that.
但我们可以看到，345 这个前期高点，就是 Don 似乎在讨论的这个区域。不过我们可以看到，我们这种上行通道形态仍然有效。我们最近确立了一条下行趋势，但它似乎守住了这个支撑区域，也就是我们的趋势线。
Um but we can see 345 old highs here uh is where uh Don seems to be discussing this uh this area in question. Uh we can see though that our upward channel type shape is still in play.
Uh we have a uh uh downward trend that has been established recently but it seems to be uh holding on to this supportive area that is our trend line.
所以，一个值得注意的水平位，这里 330 附近的一个前期低点，后来变成了高点，然后又变成了支撑。我们确实在该点位之上创出了盘中低点，但我们的收盘价正好落在该水平附近。收盘价通常比盘中波动更重要。
这里也一样，在 340 出头附近是我们收盘最好的位置，尽管盘中曾上冲到 345 以上。所以这些就是短期内交易者可能会关注的一些相关区域，以捕捉那种 gamma 挤压式的突破行情。
So, a notable horizontal level, an old low here near 330, then became a high point and then became support. We did make intraday lows beyond that point, but our close happened right around that level.
The closing prices are typically more important than the intraday fluctuations. Same deal up here around the low 340s is where we had our best closes despite the intraday pushes up to above 345.
So those are some of the relevant areas in the near term that traders uh could have their eye on for that that gamma squeeze breakout type of activity.
至于 RSI，我们确实出现了压缩，进入这个三角形形态，就在 50 中线上方小幅震荡。目前并没有明确的短期方向。
So RSI, we did have this compression into this triangular shape here kind of just bouncing around slightly above the 50 midline here. Not really a clear short-term direction right at this time here.
我们还看到，最贴近当前走势的移动均线，我们的 5 日和 21 日，价格现在大致在它们之间，在 330 到 333 左右。所以如果价格确实显著突破这两个边界中的任何一个，就关注它如何自行解决。
Uh we do see as well that the moving averages that are closest to our current activity, our 5day and our 21day price is uh roughly between them right now between 330 to 333 or so.
So look for that to to resolve itself if price does make a significant push above either of those boundaries.
最后，我们的成交量分布研究显示，这里 328 到 336 是成交量最集中的区域，然后 308 到 314 也是一个更重要的水平。所以如果我们真的开始回落，我们可以看到那可能是一个支撑区域。
它与这些前期高点相吻合。你常常会看到这些成交量分布节点会与重要的前期高点或低点相吻合，或者也与长时间区间震荡的走势相吻合。
So finally our volume profile study shows that here 328 to 336 is the closest concentration of trading volume and then 308 to 314 is a more significant level as well. So if we do start to pull back we can see that that could be a supportive area.
It lines up with these these old highs. You can often see that these uh uh volume profile nodes will line up with significant old highs or lows or also uh long periods of rangebound activity.
好的，在我们再次看 Apple 的时候，今天又出现了一波上涨。一个不错的上行日。我们上涨了三分之一。
All right, and as we look at Apple again, having a move to the upside again today. A nice positive day. We're up a third of a percent.
观察点
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 22 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。