预计 AAPL 将进一步上涨，因高搜索热度预示销量与买入增加，其影响超过分析师目标价低于当前股价所释放的谨慎信号。
逐段跳播
说出这句话让人觉得不可思议，但这是五万亿美元。这就是 Apple 所达到的成就，我还记得我年轻的时候，我们当时关注的是第一家市值达到一万亿美元的公司。
It's crazy to think of saying this, but five trillion dollars. This is what Apple has achieved , and I remember when I was young and we were looking at the first company to reach a value of one trillion dollars,
现在我们看到一万亿？这根本不算什么，对吧？我们有一家市值五万亿美元的公司，还有一位全新的 CEO。Apple 股票现在是否仍然是最值得买入的股票之一？
Now we're looking at a trillion? This is nothing, is it? We have a five trillion dollar company and a completely new CEO. Is Apple stock still one of the best stocks to buy right now?
我在 Apple 股票上有一笔交易，已经上涨了 157%。你持有 Apple 股票吗？
I have a trade in Apple stock that has risen by 157%. Do you own any Apple stock?
让我们回顾一下基本情况和所有你需要了解的内容，看看 Apple 在即将推出的折叠屏手机上是否有机会。上个月，Apple 的股票在搜索量最高的股票榜单上从第九位跃升至第二位。为什么？因为那款手机。就是那款手机。
Let 's review the basics and everything you need to know to see if Apple has a chance with its upcoming foldable phones. Apple's stock jumped from ninth to second place in the list of most searched stocks last month. Why? Because of the phone, man. It's the phone.
它在 7 月触及五万亿美元的估值，而在 24 天内，John……Terness？Terence？他将以 CEO 身份提交他关于第一季度的报告。我们那里有了一位新的领导者。
It touched a valuation of five trillion dollars in July, and within 24 days, John...Terness? Terence? He will present his report on the first quarter as CEO. We have a new leader there.
44 位分析师的平均目标价低于该股今晚的收盘价。你听到我刚才说的话了吗？44 位分析师的平均目标价低于该股的收盘价。
The average price target of 44 analysts is lower than the stock's closing price tonight. Did you hear what I just said? The average price target of 44 analysts is lower than the stock's closing price.
但当你看看 Apple，并说许多分析师认为它的价值应该更低时，哇。
but when you look at Apple and say that many analysts believe its value should be lower, wow.
收盘价是 340.42 美元，我昨天就该说了。这是我昨晚准备的。过去十二个月上涨了 38.8%。2026 年迄今上涨了 25.6%。它继续以非常好的速度增长。
$340.42 is the closing price, I should have said yesterday. I prepared this last night. An increase of 38.8% over the past twelve months. And 25.6% so far in 2026. It continues to grow at a very good pace.
而且你知道，Warren Buffett 把这作为他的第一笔投资。他倾尽全力、用尽他所有的力量投资了它。他已经开始减持，但天哪，这仍然是他最大的投资之一。
And you know, Warren Buffett made this his first investment. He invested in it with all his might, with all the strength he possessed. He has started reducing his stake, but man, it's still one of his biggest investments.
五万亿美元这一关口是在 7 月 28 日达到的。五万亿美元。历史上仅有的第二家达到这一估值的公司。它在 2025 年 10 月突破了四万亿美元关口。而且它还在继续攀升。
The $ 5 trillion mark was reached on July 28. 5 trillion dollars. Only the second company in history to reach this valuation. It surpassed the $4 trillion mark in October 2025. And it continues to climb higher.
11 月 2 日，新任 CEO 的第一份报告。我想知道，那会是什么样子？这个差距就是这段视频存在的唯一原因。这里，44 位分析师的平均预测是 328.09。我们在 340。我们在 340。
我们比分析师的 12 个月目标价高出约 4%。多么美妙。
On November 2nd, the new CEO's first report. What will it be like, I wonder? This gap is the only reason this video exists. Here, the average forecast of 44 analysts is 328.09.
We are at 340. We are at 340. We are about 4% higher than the analysts' 12-month target price. How wonderful.
Apple 在一个月内从第九位升至第二位。它当时就在最底部，排在第九位。就搜索量最高的词而言。根本没人关心它。真的没人关心。Apple 与手机。Apple 与数字。Apple 与新的领导层。Apple，Apple，Apple。
Apple moved from ninth to second place in one month. It was right at the bottom, in ninth place. In terms of most searched terms. Nobody even cared about her. Nobody really cared.
Apple with phones. Apple with numbers. Apple with the new leadership. Apple, Apple, Apple.
然后我看着我的投资组合，想，这对我的股票是好还是坏？我应该卖出吗？还是应该买入更多？还是应该继续持有？这取决于每个人自己。目前，我只是继续持有。我喜欢看到那 157% 的涨幅。
Then I look at my portfolio and think, will this be good or bad for my stock? Should I sell? Or should I buy more? Or should I just keep it? That's up to each individual. Currently, I am only keeping . I love seeing that 157% increase.
因此，自从手机及其他一切发布以来，它一直受到大量关注。折叠屏手机是件大事。Apple 有了一位新 CEO，而大多数人还没有注意到。John Ternos 于 9 月 1 日接替 Tim Cook。
已经一个多月了。Ternos，我希望我把这个名字念对了。Ternos 是通过硬件工程一路晋升上来的。他是公司的一部分，很了解这项业务。他很懂这份工作。
Therefore , it has been receiving a lot of attention since the announcement of the phones and everything else. A foldable phone is a big deal. Apple has a new CEO and most people haven't noticed.
John Ternos took over from Tim Cook on September 1st. It's been more than a month already. Ternos, and I hope I pronounce the name correctly. Ternos rose through the ranks through hardware engineering .
He was part of the company and knew the business well. He knows the job well.
11 月 2 日是他作为 CEO 的第一份财报。这将在一个月内发生。这是关于这个名字最不为人所重视的事实。我应该这么说，更换一家如此规模公司的 CEO 比任何产品生命周期都更重要。
它得到的报道要少得多。事实上，很多人甚至不知道他们已经更换了领导层。
November 2nd is his first earnings report as CEO. This will happen within a month. This is the least appreciated fact about this name . Changing the CEO of a company of this size is more important than any product lifecycle, I should say.
It received far less coverage. In fact, many people didn't even know they had changed leadership.
如果我现在在评论区问你们，你们会知道吗？你们知道他们更换了领导层吗？还是你们知道他们推出了折叠屏手机？我可以直接告诉你们，我对折叠屏手机的了解更多，对他们更换领导层的了解反而更少。
更换公司领导层极其重要。股价通常会因此受到负面影响。但这一次还没有。
If I asked you now in the comments, would you know? Did you know that they changed the leadership? Or did you know that they made the foldable phone? I can tell you straight away that I knew more about the foldable phone than I knew about their change to driving.
Changing the company's leadership is extremely important. The stock price is usually negatively affected by this. But not this time yet .
一年前，股价是245美元。苹果一年前的股价是245美元。今天，或者说昨天，收于340.42。漂亮。非常漂亮。九个月从4万亿到5万亿。这太多了。九个月内上涨25%。
A year ago, the price was $245 . Apple's stock price a year ago was $245. Today, or yesterday, it closed at 340.42. Beautiful. Very beautiful. Nine months from 4 trillion to five.
That's too much. A 25% increase within nine months.
我知道很多人在说：“怎么会呢，Mo？怎么会？”各位，全球人口仍在爆炸式增长。人们想要这些手机。你知道，它依然存在。他们有了那项新技术，它会很棒吗？还是不会很棒？一款折叠屏手机。
我会买。听着，我不会骗你们。我会买。我想要更大的屏幕。我喜欢折叠功能。我会自己去评估。我没有关注那些头部相关的设备。我不想要。我体验到了轻微的晕动感。但是，老兄，给我一部稍微大一点的手机，一部我能折叠起来放进口袋、然后拿出来展开的手机。
来吧。来吧。然后有人提到了iPad。是的，如果你愿意，我就直接用iPad。我明白。我明白。但你知道吗？我想在一台设备上做所有事情。就是这样。
I know many people are saying, "How, Mo? How?" you guys. The population is still exploding around the world. People want these phones. You know, it still exists. They have that new technology, will it be great?
Or will it not be great? A foldable phone . I will buy it. Look, I'm not going to lie to you. I will buy it. I want a bigger screen. I love the folding feature. I will evaluate it myself.
I didn't pay attention to all those head-related devices. I didn't want it. I experienced a little motion sickness. But man, give me a slightly bigger phone, one I can fold and put in my pocket, then take out and unfold.
Let's go. Let's go. Then someone said something about the iPad. Yes , if you want to, I'll simply use the iPad. I understand that. I understand that. But you know what? I want to do everything on one device. And that's all there is to it .
有四件事推动了这一增长，全球智能手机市场份额达到创纪录的20%。他们掌控着它。如你所知，苹果一直是最好的手机。我知道人们会就此与我争论。他们中80%的人会反对我。我认为苹果拥有市面上最好的手机。
我知道其他手机能做到苹果做不到的事情，但苹果拥有绝对的优雅、编程和安全。我真的很喜欢它。它是另一个层次的。
Four things drove this growth, a record 20% share of the global smartphone market. They control it . Apple has always been, as you know, the best phone out there . I know people will argue with me about that. 80% of them will oppose me.
I think Apple has the best phone available. I know other phones do things that Apple can't do, but Apple has absolute elegance, programming, and security. I really love her. It's on another level.
设备价格在6月下旬上涨，iPhone 18 Pro于9月18日发布。你们知道这一点。Siri的更新是那些400美元目标所建立的基础。我们拭目以待能否达到400美元的目标价。
Device prices increased in late June, and the iPhone 18 Pro was released on September 18. You know this. The Siri update is the foundation upon which the $400 goals were built.
We'll see if we reach that price target of $400.
苹果现在是最好买的股票，还是它最好的日子已经过去了？如果他们推出这款产品并且大获成功，请在下方评论区告诉我。你会买新的折叠屏手机吗？即使它不是折叠屏的，你会买苹果的新手机吗？因为如果有很多人说“是的，这个圣诞节我会买。”
已经好几年了，因为对我来说已经好几年了。那可能就是你入手新产品的时机。人们看着说：“嗨，我的手机已经用了两三年了。”“时候到了。”他们可能会。
Is Apple the best stock to buy now, or are its best days behind it ? If they launch the product and it's a huge success, let me know in the comments below. Will you buy the new foldable phone?
Would you buy Apple's new phone, even if it wasn't foldable? Because if there are a lot of people saying "Yes, I'll buy it this Christmas." It's been a few years, because it's been a few years for me.
That could be the course where you get a new product. People look and say, "Hi, my phone is two or three years old." "The time has come." They might.
平均目标价要低得多，嗯，不是低得多，但低于当前价格。我说过大约4%。你可以看到这一点。我是Dan Ives的超级粉丝，老兄。我一直很钦佩Dan。他的目标价是400美元，我支持你，Dan。
我支持你。我认为我们会达到那里。我们拭目以待。今天的价格，340。Morgan Stanley，360。分析师平均观点，328。肯定有人错了。我认为是分析师，所有分析师加在一起。
The average target price is much lower, well, not much lower , but it's lower than the current price. I said about 4%. You can see that. I'm a big fan of Dan Ives, man. I have always admired Dan.
His price target is $400, I'm with you, Dan. I'm with you. I think we'll get there . We'll see. Today's price, 340. Morgan Stanley, 360. Average analyst opinion, 328. Someone must be wrong.
I think they are the analysts, all the analysts combined.
有四个理由需要谨慎。你知道，当我们谈论苹果的价格预测时，我总是呈现我的两种观点。平均共识目标价低于当前价格。这很不寻常，因为你通常看到的是，一旦价格变动，这些分析师就会出来改变他们的估值。
你好，我正在改变我的目标价。没人在乎。如你所知，新闻周期只是在变化。如你所知，他们不会那样做。
There are four reasons to be cautious. You know that I always present my two points of view when we talk about Apple's price predictions. The average consensus target is lower than the current price.
This is unusual because what you usually see is that these analysts, once the price moves, come out and change their estimates. Hello, I am changing my price target. Nobody cares .
As you know, the news cycle is just changing . As you know, they don't do that.
大数定律在5万亿的水平上是成立的。你不可能一直涨、涨、涨。它永远不会立刻达到20万亿，永远不会。因为我们可能会达到那里。我记得当你在1万亿水平时说，它甚至不会达到2万亿。现在我们到了5万亿。
The law of large numbers is true at the 5 trillion level. You can't keep going up and up and up. It will never reach 20 trillion immediately, ever. Because we might get there. I remember when you said that at the trillion level , it wouldn't even reach two. Now we are at five.
而且我仍然持有这只股票，老兄。我们在做我们的工作。我们买入和卖出。这些年来我从苹果身上赚了很多钱。我离开了它。我又回到了它。我离开了它。我又回到了它。总是乐于回来。现在我决定了，我只会持有这只股票。我多么高兴我这么做了。
And I still own the stock, man. We are doing our job. We buy and sell. I have made a lot of money from Apple over the years. I left it. I went back to her . I left it. I went back to her .
Always happy to come back. Now I have decided that I will only keep the stock. And how happy I am that I did it .
新任CEO仍然未知。我们拭目以待他们计划做什么。他们的领导层是什么？会是……？我们拭目以待。我喜欢他们是工程师，因为他们有好的想法。这很好。
The new CEO is still unknown. We'll see what they plan to do. What is their leadership? Will it be ...? We'll see. I like that they are engineers because they have good ideas. This is good.
乐观者所支付的收入尚不存在。他们在押注未来。这次电话会议实际上应该提供什么？好的？这次电话会议，第四财季业绩，涵盖了iPhone 18 Pro的最初几周，该机型于9月18日开售。
回到正题。指引，这才是我们想看到的。这就是故事。Siri的问题：关于AI变现，到底是什么数字？那些400美元的目标需要这个，而它们还没有被呈现出来。这就是差距。我们会弄清楚他们将如何做到。
The revenues that optimists are paying for do not yet exist. They are betting on the future. What should the call actually offer? Good? This call, the fourth fiscal quarter results, covers the first weeks of the iPhone 18 Pro, which went on sale on September 18. back.
Directives, that's what we want to see. That's the story. Siri's question: What number at all regarding AI monetization? The $400 targets needed this and they haven't been presented.
This is the gap. We'll find out how they'll do it.
人工智能是很大的一部分。你知道我看到苹果迈向下一层次的是什么吗？你知道Tesla制造了机器人Optimus。而我把苹果看作一个拥有工程、软件、生产、工厂和供应链的公司。如果你看苹果，我把苹果看作家用机器人领域的真正巨兽。
我说的是严肃的那种。一种做饭、清洁、样样都行的类型。我们说的是花5万美元买这个机器人。但这个机器人什么都做。你什么都不用动一根手指。房子完美干净，饭做好了，早餐准备好了，垃圾清理好了，诸如此类。
一切都完成了。我认为人们会愿意花买一辆车的钱来买这些机器人。我知道我会。如果你让我的生活更轻松并为我节省时间，我会付钱。现在，我们知道苹果有这个能力。我们没听到太多讨论。想想未来5到10年。
这不是今天。是5到10年之后。你会买吗，你首先期待什么？像iPhone那样炫目的东西。你知道，我期待如此。这绝对疯狂。这就是我希望从苹果身上看到的。我希望你们看这个。
Artificial intelligence is a big part. Do you know what I see for Apple to move to the next level? You know that Tesla makes the robot, Optimus. And I look at Apple as someone who owns engineering, software, production, factories, and supply chains.
If you look at Apple, I see Apple as a real monster in home robots. And I'm talking about the serious kind. A type of cooking, cleaning, everything. We are talking about paying $50,000 for the robot.
But the robot does everything. You won't have to lift a finger for anything. The house is perfectly clean, the food is cooked, breakfast is ready, the garbage has been cleaned up , and everything like that.
Everything is done. I think people would pay what they pay for a car to buy these robots. I know I will. If you make my life easier and save me time, I will pay. Now, we know that Apple has the capability.
We don't hear much talk. Think about the next 5 to 10 years. This is not today. 5 to 10 years from now. Will you buy it and what do you expect in the first place? Something flashy like an iPhone.
You know, I expect so. That's absolutely crazy. This is what I would like to see from Apple. I hope you watch this.
我个人在关注的四件事：它会在财报前突破341.07吗？这是件大事，今年的最高收盘价。我们会知道能否突破它。分析师的平均预测是否会开始向该价格上升。通常，你会开始看到这些分析师出来上调他们的目标价。
他们不想显得软弱，尤其是在一只人人都在寻找和喜爱的股票上，连我也在说，老兄，苹果在创新。我非常高兴。我考虑过就此写一份报告。我赚了157%。它让我赚了很多钱。
Four things I am personally watching: will it exceed 341.07 before the report or not? A big deal to do, the highest closing price for this year . We will find out if we can break it.
Whether the average analyst forecast will start to rise towards the price. Typically, you will start to see these analysts come out and raise their target prices. They don't want to look weak , especially on a stock that everyone is looking for and loves, and even I was saying, man, Apple is innovating.
And I was very happy. I thought about writing a report about that. I earned 157%. It makes me a lot of money.
在11月2日之前，有没有任何指引或供应链消息的泄露？当然，我自己的规则是，在财报公布之前我不增加我的投资规模。你知道我讨厌押注盈利。我讨厌那样。我绝对讨厌它。这是世界上最奇怪的事情。
你可以碾压盈利预期，但如果指引不好，股票就会下跌。如果股票完全不及盈利预期，但他们提供了好的指引，股票就会疯狂上涨。我告诉你，你永远不知道它会走向哪里。
Any leaks of guidance or notes from the supply chains before November 2nd? And of course, my own rule is that I do not increase the size of my investment before the earnings are announced.
You know I hate betting on profits. I hate that. I absolutely hate him. It's the strangest thing in the world. You can crush earnings expectations, but if the guidance isn't good, the stock will fall.
If the stock completely misses the profits , but they provide good guidance, the stock will rise like crazy. I'm telling you, you never know where it's going to lead .
如果你记不住别的，请记住苹果是美国搜索量最高的单只股票。它在一个月内上升了七位。人们关注苹果有多个原因，不仅仅是因为股票。当他们谈论苹果时，他们想更多地了解手机；他们想知道。当你看到这种上升时，我告诉你，我认为这意味着更多的销量。
当你几乎成为搜索量最高的公司时，这是件大事。这告诉我，人们想更多地了解苹果的产品线。这通常意味着更多的销量，更多的买入。我们看到价格在上涨。它没有走弱，反而越来越强。因此，我乐观地认为我们会看到又一次上涨。
它已经触及5万亿的估值。我明白。它还能涨得更高。
If you can't remember anything else, remember that Apple is the most searched single stock in America. It climbed seven places in one month. People care about Apple for multiple reasons, not just because of the stock.
When they talk about Apple , they want to know more about the phones; they want to know. When you see this kind of rise, I tell you that I think it means more sales. When you become almost the most searched company, that's a big deal.
This tells me that people want to know more about Apple's product line . This usually means more sales, and more buying. We see the price rising. It does not weaken, but rather grows stronger.
Therefore, I am optimistic that we will see another rise. It has touched a valuation of 5 trillion. I understand that. It can rise even higher.
Tim Cook 在 9 月 1 日卸任，任职 15 年。现在换成了老 John。Timis、Timis，你是说 Ternis 吗？Temis？我得把那个姓念对，对吧？他现在是 CEO。
你们可以在评论区骂我。我敢肯定这个视频里已经有人这么干了。我就叫他 John 吧。John 上任了。你知道的，Tim、John。我喜欢这样。对，这样简单。这很简单。很好。平均是 4 到 4 码，我已经告诉过你我们低于这个数。
11 月 2 日，老 John 会出来干他的活。
Tim Cook stepped down on September 1st after 15 years. And now the old Johnny is there. Timis, Timis, did you say Ternis? Temis? I need to pronounce the last name correctly, right?
He is now the CEO. You can yell at me in the comments. I'm sure someone has already done that in this video. I'll just say John. John is there. You know, Tim, John. I like that.
Yes, that's easy. This is easy. Good. The average is 4 to 4 yards, I already told you we are less than that. On November 2nd, the old John will come out and do his job.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Stock Moe 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。