看好苹果：重新聚焦高端机型，支撑 iPhone 出货量达到 2.6 亿或 2.7 亿部；2000 美元的 Duo 已售罄，积压订单达 3 个月。18 系列因产品重叠而表现疲软并非问题，因为苹果正转向更高的平均售价/产品结构。AI/Siri 是增长引擎，苹果能够持续盈利，并成为以 AI 为核心的公司。
逐段跳播
是的，这对 Apple 来说是美好的一天，尤其是当你看看其他许多科技股的表现时。Apple 所做的，是真正重新聚焦于高端品类。因此，我们已经看到 Apple 的出货量有可能达到 2.6 亿或 2.7 亿部。
Yes, it's a good day for Apple, especially when you look at the performance of many other technology stocks. What Apple has done is really refocus itself in the premium category.
Therefore, we are already seeing Apple shipments potentially reaching 260 or 270 million units.
其中很大一部分正朝着高端品类倾斜，或者至少产品结构正朝着有利于它的方向倾斜。“Duo”设备出现的时机恰到好处，正好赶上这一趋势。
Much of that is trending towards the premium category, or at least the mix is leaning in its favor. The " Duo" device comes at just the right time for this to happen.
正如我提到的，这是一款基础版本就要 2000 美元的手机。然而，数量在几分钟内就售罄了。我们掌握的信息是，订单积压大约有 3 个月。所以，我们可能会看到一个相当可观的规模，但它无法与其他 iPhone 的规模相比。
As I mentioned, it's a phone that costs $2000 for the basic version. However, the quantity ran out in minutes. The information we have is that there is a backlog of orders for approximately 3 months.
So, we might see a fairly good size , but it doesn't compare to the sizes of other iPhones.
折叠屏手机属于另一个品类。但它属于那个特殊群体。购买这款特定手机或这种设计，似乎没有任何犹豫。
Foldable phones are in a different category. But it falls within that special group. There doesn't seem to be any hesitation in buying this particular phone or this design.
我在交易大厅有个朋友，是个交易员，他过去常说：永远不要在第四季度做空 Apple 股票。我们谈论 Apple 生态系统还没过多久，对吧？新电视、聚光灯、门铃、你可以使用的摄像头，还有恒温器。我们还能继续看到 Apple 带来更多东西。
I had a friend here on the trading floor, a trader, who used to say: Never short Apple stock in the fourth quarter. It hasn't been that long since we were talking about the Apple ecosystem, has it?
The new television, spotlights, doorbell, cameras you can use , and thermostats. There was a lot more we could continue to see with Apple.
“Due”设备作为一款昂贵的奢侈品，会影响“18 Pro”的销量吗？因为“Pro”版本现在的等待时间更短了，也许是 4 天，而去年同期更长。所以，也许他们对“Duo”版本更感兴趣，还是说有什么问题？更短的等待时间意味着供应更充足、买家更少吗？
Will the "Due" device , being an expensive luxury item , affect sales of the "18 Pro"? Because the "Pro" version now has shorter waiting periods , perhaps 4 days, compared to the previous year.
So, perhaps they have a greater interest in the " Duo" version, or is there something wrong ? Do shorter waiting periods mean greater availability and fewer buyers?
这里有一个相当有趣的故事，我们已经看到有报道称，针对 18 英寸“Pro”和“Pro Max”手机，制造商收到的指引被要求略微下调。
There is a rather interesting story here, and we have seen reports that the guidelines for manufacturers regarding the 18-inch "Pro" and " Pro Max" phones have been asked to back down a bit.
首先，是的，我认为存在一些重叠。一些原本会购买 18 英寸“Pro”或“Pro Max”手机的人，正在转向“Duo”，所以你会看到那边出现一些下滑。这对 Apple 来说不是问题。
很明显，他们只是在转向更高的平均售价，或者略微调整产品结构。这不会影响他们的利润。营收将保持强劲。这仅仅是产品结构的变化。因此，你可能会因此看到 18 系列出现一些疲软。
Firstly, yes, I think there is some overlap. Some people who would normally have bought an 18" "Pro" or " Pro Max" phone are switching to the "Duo," so you are seeing some decline there.
This is not a problem for Apple. It is clear that they are simply moving to a higher average selling price, or changing their product mix slightly. This will not affect their bottom line.
Revenues will remain strong. It's simply a change in the mix. Therefore, you may see some weakness in the 18 series because of that.
另一件事，你可能还记得，Apple 决定对 18 系列采取双发布策略。“Pro”和“Pro Max”版本立即上市，而一些中端机型将在春季发布。所以，我认为我们看到的一些疲软，或者关于向制造商及其合作伙伴发出指引、要求减少本季度部分产量的报道，也与这个双发布的时间安排有关。
The other thing, as you may recall, is that Apple decided to adopt a dual-launch strategy for the 18 series. The "Pro" and "Pro Max" versions are available immediately, while some mid-range models will be released in the spring.
So, I think some of the weakness or reports we are seeing about guidance to manufacturers and their partners to reduce some production volumes for this quarter is also related to this dual-launch timing.
你看，我们仍然认为 Apple 是一家 iPhone 公司，但 Apple 还有很多其他东西在为其利润做贡献，对吧？我是说，他们有各种各样的服务和其他增长引擎。
Look, we still consider Apple to be an iPhone company, but there's a lot more that goes into Apple and contributes to its profits, right? I mean, they have all kinds of services and other growth engines.
嗯，如你所知，它是一家平台公司。它是一个完全垂直整合的整体。但我认为真正需要关注的事情，我知道我会像其他人一样听起来像在重复老调，仍然是人工智能。所以，Apple Intelligence、新的 Siri，以及所有那些与更自主、更以 AI 为导向的应用和体验的代理式整合，那绝对是你要关注的。
Well, as you know, it's a platform company. It is a fully vertically integrated package . But I think the thing that really needs to be focused on, and I know I'll sound like a broken record like everyone else, is that it's still about artificial intelligence.
So, Apple Intelligence, the new Siri, and all those proxy-capable integrations with more autonomous, AI-oriented apps and experiences, that's definitely what you need to look at.
因为归根结底，这些设备强大而可靠。她确实做了非常了不起的事情。而且它看起来也很棒。但它仍然只是所有这些基于 AI 的服务的载体。因此，预计 Apple 将继续从中获利，并转型为一家主要专注于人工智能的公司。
Because ultimately, the devices are powerful and reliable. She does really amazing things. And it looks great too. But it is still just a vehicle for all these AI-based services .
Therefore, expect Apple to continue to profit from this and transform into a company that focuses primarily on artificial intelligence .
随着 John Ternos 上任，你肯定会在硬件方面看到更多动作。我非常兴奋地看到 Apple 终于重新聚焦智能家居。我认为这是她之前努力有些薄弱的领域，而这对她来说是一个非常正确的方向。
With John Ternos taking office, you will certainly see more activity on the hardware side. I am very excited to see Apple finally refocusing its efforts on the smart home. I think it's an area where her efforts were somewhat weak before, and this is a very good direction for her.
如果我们开始看到对空间计算更大的关注，并且 Apple 即将推出的智能眼镜系列更轻薄、更具成本效益、更便宜、更容易为大众所接受，我不会感到惊讶。所以，也要留意这一点。伴随着这个基于 AI 的实验的共同主线。
I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a greater focus on spatial computing, and if Apple's upcoming smart glasses collections were thinner, more cost-effective, less expensive , and more accessible to the public.
So, keep an eye out for that too. With this common thread of AI-based experiments.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 28 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。