$AAPL

AAPL 在 350 美元处面临阻力;Tim 在 11 月财报前做空,预期将向 Microsoft/Nvidia 均值回归,因为 AAPL 的跑赢表现令他趋于保守。KG 认为在临近两周突破位处出现上升楔形:若向上突破则上行至 380 美元,若向下破位则下行至 325/330 美元;长期看多。

他说的是几周内
《The Big 3: NVDA, AAPL, MSFT》
Schwab NetworkTim and KG发布 2026-10-20 · 20 段内容
01:41/ —打开原视频

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20 段内容
1:418:41

我们接下来要看的另外两只股票,Apple 和 Microsoft,在那段时间里下跌了约3%。

Apple and Microsoft shares, the other two we will look at, fell by about 3% during that period,

接下来我们看看 Apple。Apple 一直很有意思。我们离历史高点非常近了。它在某些方面某种程度上成了“反 AI”交易。关于 Apple,我一直听到这种说法。

Let's move on to Apple here. Apple has been very interesting. We are very close to historic highs. It has emerged somewhat as an " anti- AI" deal in certain ways . I keep hearing that when it comes to Apple.

那么,Tim,你现在怎么看 Apple?是的,看看 Apple,它是三大公司之一,在过去几个月里是表现最突出的。

So, Tim, what's your take on Apple right now? Yes, looking at Apple, which is among the Big Three companies, it has been the most outstanding performer of all over the past few months.

它在那段时间里上涨了超过12%,但在350美元水平面临显著阻力。我不止一次试图强力突破那个水平,但每次都失败了。

It rose by more than 12% during that period, but it faces significant resistance at the $350 level . I tried to break through that level forcefully more than once, and failed every time.

我只是在饶有兴趣地关注这个水平。我会在这笔交易中采取更激进的立场,卖出看跌的看涨价差。我喜欢这只股票走势艰难这一点。

I'm just watching this level with interest. I will take a more aggressive stance in this trade , by selling a bearish call spread. I like the fact that the stock is having a hard time.

他们的财报将在11月第一周发布。因此,我会在财报前保持做空,并卖出10月30日到期的看涨期权价差(350-355),从中赚取超过一美元。

Their earnings results will be released in the first week of November. Therefore, I will remain short before earnings, and sell the spread of the call options (350-355) for October 30, making more than a dollar for it.

所以,我喜欢这个风险回报比,而且这笔交易中我也有上行方向的安全边际。

So, I like this return on risk, and I also have a safety margin for upside in the deal.

我认为 Apple 大概率会这样,除非我们看到市场遇到对 Apple 有利的事情,对吧?我看不到 Apple 会从所谓的避险资金流入或“反 AI”交易中受益,仅仅因为我认为所有股票都会下跌。

And I think Apple probably will, unless we see the market encounter something beneficial for Apple, right? I don't see Apple benefiting from some kind of flight to safety, so to speak, or an "anti- AI" deal, simply because I think all stocks will go down.

我认为 Apple 的优异表现正是你可能对它持偏保守态度的原因。我的意思是,我是那种相信均值回归的人。因此,我相信 Apple 未来会回到 Microsoft 和 Nvidia 这类股票的水平。

I think Apple's superior performance is a reason why you might be downwardly conservative towards it. I mean, I'm the type of person who believes in returning to the average. Therefore, I believe that Apple will return to the levels of names like Microsoft and Nvidia in the future.

好。你这笔交易的到期日是10月30日,这排除了它的财报事件,财报要到11月2日才会发布。但是 KG,当你看看 Apple 以及我们最近看到的一些走势,特别是关于他们一些新产品发布,你在图表上看到了什么?

Good. You have an expiration date of October 30 for that deal, which excludes its earnings event, which will not be released until November 2. But KG, when you look at Apple and some of the moves we've seen recently, specifically regarding some of their new product launches, what do you see in the graph?

嗯,这只股票在日线时间框架上看起来位置非常好。我的意思是,这只股票能够回撤到关键支撑位,然后恢复上涨走势。目前,在过去六七个月里,我们一直在录得更高的高点和更高的低点。

Well, this stock looks very well positioned on the daily timeframe. I mean that the stock was able to retreat to key support levels before resuming its upward movement. Currently, over the past six or seven months, we have been recording higher highs and higher lows.

我们看到去年12月底的这次下跌,以及今年年初,下跌是朝着200日移动平均线去的。然后我们开始看到买家强力介入。这就是AI交易开始影响这家公司的时候。

We saw this decline at the end of December last year, and at the beginning of this year, the decline was towards the 200-day moving average. And then we started to see buyers stepping in strongly.

This is when AI trading began to affect this company.

在过去一个半月到两个月里,我们能够把20日均线作为关键支撑区域来利用,此外还有50日均线。你可以把这个形态称为“上升楔形”,但我们几乎已经接近未来两周的顶点位置,届时我们预计要么向上突破,要么向下突破。

Over the past month and a half or two months, we have been able to take advantage of the 20-day moving average as a key support area, in addition to the 50-day moving average. You could call this pattern a " rising wedge," but we've almost reached the peak point in the next two weeks, where we expect either an upward breakout or a downward breakout.

如果发生向下突破,就意味着我们失守20日均线,转而依靠50日均线作为325美元的支撑区域。如果跌破该位置,我们就会朝200日均线方向走。

If a break down occurs, it means we are losing the 20-day moving average and relying on the 50-day moving average as a support zone at $325. If we break below that, we are heading towards the 200-day moving average.

但我们又一次处于盘整阶段,并试图实现向上突破。如果我们实现这次突破,那么从当前水平看,大约有40美元的上涨空间。因此,380美元水平可能是下一个主要阻力区域。

But we are, once again, in a consolidation phase and trying to achieve an upward breakout. If we achieve this breakout, you are looking at a rise of approximately $40 from these current levels.

Therefore, the $380 level could be the next major resistance zone.

价格动能实际上在这里减弱。相对强弱指数(RSI)正在录得更低的高点,而MACD指标在日线周期上向下交叉。所以,这是一只已经表现不错的股票,但它现在正处于一个关键水平或关键节点。

The price momentum actually diminishes here. The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is recording lower highs, and the MACD indicator is crossing downwards on the daily timeframe. So, this is a stock that has already performed well, but it now stands at a crucial level or pivotal point.

在周线图上,情况变得更加乐观,相对强弱指数也出现了更高的高点和更高的低点。相对强弱指数(RSI)出现更高的低点,同一指数也出现更低的高点。

On the weekly chart, things are becoming more optimistic, with higher highs and higher lows on the Relative Strength Index as well. Higher lows on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) , and lower highs on the same index as well.

所以,我们正在失去价格动能,而我们目前略高于这个关键突破点。因此,如果出现向下回调,我们又会看向大约330美元的水平。

So, we are losing price momentum, and we are somewhat above this key breakout point. So, if there is a pullback downwards, we are looking again at the $330 level, approximately.

但这张图在长期来看非常积极,尽管在日线周期的短期上,我们又一次站在未来两周的那个关键节点上。我们看看事情会如何发展。

But this chart is very positive in the long term, although in the short term on the daily timeframe we are once again standing at that crucial point over the next two weeks. We'll see how things go .

好。如果苹果股价涨到我提到的接近380的水平,那肯定会创下该公司的新高。目前,该股稳守在348.15,这是我们上周才达到的水平。

Good. If Apple's stock rises near the 380 mark I mentioned, it will certainly set a new record high for the company. Currently, the stock is holding steady at 348.15, a level we reached only last week.

这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 32 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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