AAPL 呈两面性：40 倍远期市盈率对比略低于 30 倍的历史常态，加之对 iPhone Duo 需求的疑虑，构成防御理由；而 70%+ 的服务业务利润率、iPhone 17 超级周期、25 亿用户基础、中国市场份额提升以及强劲的自由现金流，则可能支撑其溢价。净来看方向不明。

Apple's stock is in the spotlight, as it brought back a familiar scene: long queues. The tech giant launched its first foldable phone, the "iPhone Duo," in stores today with customers lining up from Shanghai to New York.

Although its base price starts at around $2,000, demand appears to be strong. Before today, online orders indicated delivery dates extending to 2027. Initial reviews praise the phone's design, but there are some concerns about apps that have not yet been optimized for the foldable screen.

The big question for Apple is whether it can convert the initial enthusiasm into sustained sales and maintain widespread adoption of the new device. For me, Apple shares are nearing their all-time highs.

today's launch of "Duo" was big, and as you know, there are a lot of TV ads about the queues outside Apple stores. I have to admit, I'm not a candidate to buy one, but when they said you'd have an iPad in your pocket, it really caught my attention.

Many people are watching television now or watching videos on their phones, and a larger screen might be worth watching.

Now, after that, we come to the problems, which is the $5 trillion market capitalization, an indicator of the kind of company Apple represents. But the price-to-earnings ratio of 40 is what worries me.

Once he reaches 40, he'll lose me as a fan of this company anymore. I'm starting to take a slightly defensive stance. They have earnings results coming out on November 7th, Diane.

With the evaluation, and with this launch, I think the launch will not be as great as they expected, but slowly but surely, I think people will start to like this product. I'm just worried about a P/E ratio of 40, Diana and Tom.

No, I forgot that I had made an appointment on the calendar, and then the manager told me to wait for the second version of any new iPhone model. So I postponed it; it wasn't my decision.

But still, you know, it's a great device, isn't it? You know there's a lot of noise about it. They didn't produce much of it. Remember that. This is part of the problem and the reason for the delay in orders.

If you order online, you will not receive it until January 25th at the moment. But this is just another arrow in their quiver that they will use. Now Kevin mentioned valuations based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times.

This is expensive compared to historical rates, which are slightly less than 30 times the standard. So think about that.

But let's now talk about some of the reasons why the stock is rising and reaching record levels today, up 27% this year. Profit margins are expanding. The services side of their business achieves margins exceeding 70%, and this increases their overall margins.

They just went through a supercycle with the iPhone 17. The iPhone 18 is getting good reviews. This is a positive thing. They have a user base of 2.5 billion products that they can leverage.

Artificial intelligence, they've finally started expanding it, haven't they? While we continue to wait for that. That might be a positive thing. But then you start to look at capital spending.

We talk about this with the big cloud computing companies all the time. They are spending hundreds of billions of dollars, intensifying it, and expecting to expand it further. Well, that's just a drop in the ocean compared to Apple's capital spending.

So, they are the winners here. So, their margins are increasing, the supercycle is expanding, they are able to raise prices, and the consumer is ready to accept it.

They are gaining market share in key markets such as China at this stage. So yes, there are many positives to be gleaned, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio assessment may well be justified, and don't forget that, folks.

In this mix we have seen so far this week in the technology sector, technology has declined and many semiconductor names have declined. Well, you have a solid balance sheet with Apple, and huge free cash flows for that company. Therefore, it is stable.

It has risen by 1.2% this week under extremely volatile conditions. Therefore, investors may use this as a safe haven, given its strong balance sheet. You mentioned that they have profits on November 2nd, and I want to set up my trades so that I'm after that, since it becomes expensive, right?

Think about this. The expiry date of October 7, or sorry, October 30, is trading at a volatility of around 24, slightly less than 25. As for November 13, which is what I am buying, it is trading at a volatility of 30.8.

So, I'm buying higher volatility than I'm selling. Why is that? Why would I do that? Okay, I'm preparing to extend the period to include the earnings event. This is because the earnings event takes place in that middle week.

Tom, I looked at buying the 340 put option on November 13, which is only $7.50 or $8 less than the current trading price. Then I sell the put option 340 on October 30, which precedes the earnings event, hoping that when I extend the time period at the earnings event, the discount looks around 455 and may trade closer to 460.

That seems expensive for what I'm trying to do, but when I extend the time period, I will really be able to reduce that net discount. Tom, so I prepare and anticipate the earnings event by buying after it and selling before it, then I hope to extend the period directly to the time of the earnings event.

Yes, let's analyze this trade. I think this is a good illustration Kevin provides about this trade, which is that the risk-to-reward ratio doesn't look great if you only look at this risk profile, but what it's missing is the possibility of transferring your short option to a series of earnings-event options that have higher implied volatility and a higher option premium.

So you'll really get a very good balance if the stock is at or near the strike price of 340.

But let's analyze this trade. The November 13 weekly options, buying a 340 put option with 21 days to expiry, versus selling the same 340 put option in the October 30 weekly options that expire in 7 days, a slightly bearish calendar put option with a two-week spread around the strike price of 340.

You are paying a discount of about $455, meaning $455 per spread is your risk in this trade.

Your breakeven points will most likely be around 350 on the upside, maybe, but this could widen because as you approach the expiry over the next seven days, you will either be looking to close the deal if the market is open and if it widens, right?

If the stock starts to decline near 340, or carry that short option over to the weekly November 6 options that include that earnings event. This is where you will get a large balance that reduces a lot of risk and increases potential profitability.

It is restricted to a specific scope, isn't it? You want to be at or near 340, but you still have a range outside the 340 strike price. What you don't want to happen is for the stock not to rise from here or perhaps not to fall below 335 or 330.

This is where you start to lose profitability as well in this trade, but it's a broad two-week bearish "bot" calendar from Kev.

How, I looked at something somewhat neutral. It is neither bullish nor bearish, it is relatively neutral. I've looked at the short "Iron Condor" here, sometimes referred to as the short "Iron Butterfly," all in the weekly October 30 picks.

So, it is really a short-term positioning in this example deal. If you believe the stock will hold around its current share price.

I went to the October 30 weekly options, and sold a put option at a strike price of 345 and a call option at a strike price of 345. So, you sell a straddle at a strike price of 345, then buy a put option at 335 on the downside, and buy a call option at 355 on the upside.

So, this is a neutral short Iron Butterfly with a bid of $10. You accumulate a balance of approximately $7. It may be ten cents less, but the balance you accumulate is what you can profit from, right?

$700 per spread with a risk of $300, but that's above 355 or below 335 in this trade, Kevin. So, it's neither upward nor downward, Keif. It's the other option. It is neutral.

That's absolutely right, Tom. Tom, what Tom is thinking here uses some common sense. It's hitting its highest level ever. There's still a week or so until earnings are due, and he'll probably stay here for a while.

So sell a straddle of 345, buy the ends, create a $10 vertical put, a $10 vertical call, collect $7, and all you're trying to do here is let time pass, stay in that range, and then buy it back for less than $7.

The risk is that the stock will move ahead of earnings and one of these options will reach $10. Therefore, the return for risk is very favorable, but remember that you are betting on a movement within a specific range.

So it is a specific risk, and one last thing, one of these two options 345, whether it is a "call" or a "put", will be within the price range. So you'll have to defend this position, Tom.

Yes, that's a good point, Kevin. You need market stability, but you will face the risk of allocation on one of the short-term put options at the strike price of 345 where you sold the call option and the put option.

Regarding the breakeven point, you need to stay above the 338 level if it is declining, and below the 352 level if it is rising. So it is a neutral strategy here in the Diane and Kevin deal, the example of a bearish put option calendar.