$AAPL · FAST Graphs · 2026-10-27
Apple 是一家卓越的公司，但在市盈率 38.64 倍、盈利增速已从十四年前的 25% 放缓至 12%、近八年降至 9.89%、而分析师预期仅约 10.5% 的情况下，并非明智的投资。回归合理价值意味着年化回报 -20%；若按其五年正常倍数、以 10% 增长计算，年化回报仅 2.2%。其 38 倍市盈率高于 Nvidia 的 26 倍，而增速却大约只有后者的五分之一。
逐段跳播
另一方面是 Apple。它占7.5%的份额。Apple 的情况完全不同。我们可以用看 Nvidia 的同样方式来看 Apple。Apple 实现了巨大的增长，但看这条黑线，这条黑线代表的是 Apple 在近期历史上基本达到的最高估值倍数。市盈率是38.64。
On the other hand, we have Apple . That's a share of 7.5 percent . Apple tells a completely different story. As you know, we can look at Apple in the same way we looked at Nvidia.
You know that Apple has achieved tremendous growth, but looking at this black line, this black line represents the highest multiple Apple has traded at essentially in its recent history. Well, the price-to-earnings ratio is 38.64.
与 Nvidia 不同，Apple 的问题在于，它已经从一家增长25%的公司，在过去十四年里降为增长12%的公司，过去八年又降到9.89%的增长，以此类推。所以，Apple 在利润方面实际上正在放缓，但估值却在扩张。
The problem with Apple, unlike Nvidia, is that Apple has declined from a company growing at 25% to a company growing at 12% over the past fourteen years, down to growth of 9.89% over the past eight years, and so on.
So, Apple is actually slowing down in terms of profits , but the valuation is expanding.
现在，人们当然都在追捧 Apple。Apple 是一只非常受欢迎的股票，不是吗？它是一家卓越的公司，但为个位数增长支付33倍盈利并不是明智的投资。
Now, as you know, people are of course embracing Apple . Apple is a very popular stock, isn't it? It is an exceptional company, but paying 33 times the earnings for single-digit growth is not a wise investment.
如果我们看预测，分析师预计增长10.5%。所以，如果它回到按公允价值交易，我们可以预期你的投资可能获得-20%的年化回报率。如果你退回到按它5年的正常倍数交易，而公司增长10%，你的钱只能赚到2.2%。
If we look at the estimates, as you know, analysts are predicting growth of 10.5 percent. So, if it returns to trading at its fair value, as you know, we can expect a potential annual rate of return of -20% on your investment.
If you retreat to trade at its 5-year normal multiple, while the company grows by 10%, you will only earn 2.2% on your money.
现在，用同样的方法，我们来看看预测以及分析师的预期。分析师已经上调了12个月前的预期。他们有点乐观，但除此之外相当中性。所以，分析师一直在跟踪这家公司，Apple 不会凭空爆发。
它不像 Nvidia 那样有可能实现50%的增长。
Now, doing the same thing, let's take a look at the forecasts and what the analysts expect. As you know, analysts have raised their estimates from what they were 12 months ago.
They are a little optimistic, but otherwise they are rather neutral. So , analysts are keeping their track of this company, and you know, it's not like Apple is going to explode out of nowhere.
It's not as if they're going to achieve potential growth of 50 % like Nvidia is.
首先，无论 Apple 是否在增长，它的市盈率都比 Nvidia 高。市盈率是38对26，而它的增长率大约比 Nvidia 的增长率低五倍。所以，风险集中在这两家公司身上，对吧？
First, Apple, whether it 's growing or not, is trading at a higher price-to-earnings ratio than Nvidia. As you know, the ratio is 38 compared to 26, and it is growing at a rate approximately five times lower than Nvidia's growth rate .
So, there are risks concentrated in these two companies, right?
正如我们在 Microsoft 和 Apple 身上看到的，尤其是 Apple，它是第二大持仓，年增长只有10%，却拥有这份名单上最高的估值倍数之一，对吧？
As we saw with Microsoft and Apple , especially Apple which is the second largest holding and is growing at only 10% annually, but has one of the highest multiples on this list, right?