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$AAPL

$AAPL · Schwab Network · 2026-10-30

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

Apple 走势向上,RSI 接近 61,尚未超买,因此说话者看好财报行情,通过 11 月 6 日的看涨垂直价差布局,若 Apple 回升至约 351.73 美元的历史高点即可获利。估值相对历史偏高,但有超级周期和服务业务增长支撑;支撑位约在 332 美元和 311 美元附近。

看涨他说的是几周内
《Options Corner: AAPL Outperforms Mag 7 Peers Ahead of Earnings》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-30 · 13 段内容
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13 段内容
0:023:43

加入我们深入讨论 Apple 的是 Fast Money 联合主持人、资深期权撰稿人 Tom White。是的,Diane,我们首先要看的 Apple 图表显示,其股价在过去 5 年里上涨了约 125% 至 126%。

Joining us for an in-depth discussion on Apple is Fast Money co-host and senior options contributor Tom White. Yes Diane, the first chart we're going to look at for Apple shows that the share price has increased by about 125-126% in the last 5 years.

你可以看到,这只股票表现确实很好。我们在 2023 年、2024 年看到了一些稳定性,但现在我们看到的是上升趋势。

You can see here that this stock has done really well. We saw some stability in 2023, 2024, but now we are seeing an upward trend.

所以,在财报公布之前,Apple 的回报确实很不错。如果我们更仔细地看这张图表,可以看到 Apple 在一年期内、或者说截至 2026 年,按昨天的收盘价计算,实现了约 28% 的增长。

So, really good returns for Apple ahead of earnings results. If we look at the chart more closely, we can see that Apple has achieved a growth of about 28% on a 1-year basis or until 2026 , as per yesterday's closing price.

我们现在大约在 345 美元,但在财报公布前我们需要关注一些关键价位,因为与历史估值相比,这个价格已经相当高了,不过由于超级周期和服务收入的增长,它们的表现很好。

We are now at around $345, but we need to watch some key levels before the earnings report because it is quite high compared to historical valuations, but they are doing well due to the growth in supercycles and service revenues.

这里是 50 日简单移动平均线,大约在 332 美元。在下跌趋势中,这可能是一个支撑区域。我们会密切关注这一点。自 8 月以来,我们还没有跌破过这个水平。

We have the 50-day simple moving average here, which is sitting at around $332. This could be an area of support in a downtrend. We will keep an eye on that. We haven't dropped below this level since August.

现在,如果你看动量和 Apple 过去 12 个月的表现,根据 RSI,我们在 50 以上,大约在 61。因此,这无论如何都不能被称为超买。每次它升破被视为超买的 70 水平,都会很快从那里回落。

Now if you look at momentum and Apple's performance over the last 12 months, we are above 50, around 61 according to the RSI. Therefore, this cannot be called overbought in any way.

Every time it rises above the 70 level, which is considered overbought, it drops back down very quickly from there.

关键点之一是,我们接近上周触及的约 351.73 美元的历史高点。所以,请记住这一点。这次财报会让我们达到新的高度吗?

One of the key points is that we are close to the all-time high of around $351.73 that we touched last week. So, keep that in mind. Will we reach new heights with this report ?

下跌趋势中的一个参考点大约在 311 美元。这将是一个强支撑区域,我们需要密切关注。

A reference point in the downtrend is around $311. This will be a strong area of support, which we need to keep an eye on.

看 50 日移动平均线,我们看到那里有一个成交量节点。这将是 332 美元至 337 美元附近的支撑区域。所以,我们会密切关注这一点。

Looking at the 50-day moving average, we see that there is a volume node there. This will be an area of support around $332 to $337. So, we will keep an eye on that.

在阻力或障碍方面,我们现在处于不确定的局面。请关注那个历史高点,它比该股潜在的起点价格 345 美元高出约 6.50 美元。

We are now in an uncertain situation when it comes to resistance or obstacles. Keep an eye on that all-time high, which is about $6.50 above the stock's potential starting price of $345.

我在这里用的是 11 月 6 日的周度期权。我一直在寻找可以按偏向进行交易的方式,比如看涨就买入看涨期权,看跌就买入看跌期权。不过,我想稍微降低买入看涨期权的成本,因为财报这类风险事件导致隐含波动率要高得多。

I used the weekly options for November 6th here. I've been looking for something where I can trade on a bias, like buying a call if it's bullish or a put if it's bearish. However, I would like to reduce the cost of buying bullish calls a bit, because the implied volatility is much higher due to risky events like earnings reports.

所以,我在这里选择了看涨期权垂直价差策略。如果你认为该股会回到最高价并创下新纪录,你就是乐观的。那么,我会买入价内的 340 看涨期权。这就是这个看涨垂直价差的看涨部分,对吧?

它的 delta 很高,反应很像直接持股。相反,我会卖出 355 行权价的看涨期权。所以,这是一个 15 美元价差的看涨垂直价差。我需要支付约 6 美元的权利金。这可能有点太多了。

我看到这个的时候,该股大约在 342 美元交易。它可能在 7 美元左右。不过,你支付的权利金就是你的风险,也就是大约 600 美元。这会让你的盈亏平衡点达到 346 美元。这仅比当前股价高 1%。所以,你不需要很大的变动就能超过盈亏平衡点。

So, I have chosen a bullish call vertical approach here. If you think the stock will return to its highest price and set a new record. You are optimistic. So, I will buy the in-the-money 340 call.

This is the bullish part of this call vertical, right? It has a high delta, it reacts much like a straight stock. On the contrary, I will sell the 355 strike call. So, this is a $15 gap bullish call vertical.

I have to pay a debit of about $6. It may be a little too much. When I saw this, the stock was trading at around $342. It could be around $7. However, the debit you pay will be your risk.

That is, about 600 dollars. And this will bring your break-even point to $346. This is only 1 percent higher than the current share price. So, you don't need a huge change to get above break-even.

那么,我为什么选择卖出 355 看涨期权?11 月 6 日的周度期权下周五到期,股价预计在 15 美元左右。所以,我就是这样做出决定的。通过卖出 355 看涨期权来对冲你买入的 340 看涨期权,成本被略微调整。

正如我所说,346 美元的盈亏平衡点仅比当前价格高 1%,并且处于期权市场当前估值的一个标准差之内。所以,如果你看涨,但你认为该股会回到最高价,那么这笔交易对你来说可能是有利可图的。

Diane,这里有机会以 600 美元的风险赚取 900 美元。

Now , why did I choose the 355 call for sale ? The November 6th weekly options expire next Friday, with the share price expected to be around $15. So, that's how I came to the decision.

The cost is being adjusted slightly by selling 355 calls against the 340 calls you purchased. As I said, the break-even point of $346 is only 1 percent above the current price and is within one standard deviation of the current valuation of the options market.

So if you are bullish, but you think the stock will go back to its highest price , then this trade could be profitable for you. Where there is a chance to earn $900 by risking $600 , Diane.

观察点

Apple 在财报前后创下高于 $351.73 的历史新高
创下高于 $351.73 的新纪录高点
在 11 月 6 日当周到期之前财报与股价
支持看涨看涨价差(call-vertical)的判断

这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 50 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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