$AAPL · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-03
Apple 是一家成熟、缺乏惊喜的公司:营收低双位数增长并伴随回购,但毛利率降至 45%;折叠屏的损坏问题确实存在,但规模不大、可预见且可修复,需求超过供给。现金是优势,但 Apple 应更积极地锁定内存及供应链。
逐段跳播
苹果,新CEO,还是老一套的财报。
Apple, new CEO, same old earnings.
我承认,由于各种原因,我最近对苹果的财报并不是特别兴奋。相当长一段时间以来,基本上都是老样子。但我们确实有CEO John Turnis。这是他在他领导下的第一份财报。我其实更想看看他们这次会说些什么,尤其是有了像折叠屏手机这样的新产品。
I will admit I have not exactly been super excited about Apple's earnings recently for various reasons. It's kind of, you know, the same old same old for quite a while. But we do have CEO John Turnis.
This is his first earnings uh under his leadership. And I was actually more intrigued to see what they had to say this time around, especially with new products like the foldable phone.
我完全理解你为什么一段时间以来对苹果的财报不兴奋。我的意思是,我会说,至少在过去三四年里,它们历来是Mag 7里最无聊的。
it I I totally understand why you have not been excited about Apple's earnings for a while. I mean, I I would argue they're historically the most boring out of the Mag 7, at least over the past like 3 or four years.
而这在某种程度上是刻意为之。这是一项伟大的成熟业务。他们保持收入以低两位数速度增长。他们持续回购股票。他们持续做好资本配置。
Um, and that's kind of by design. It's a a great mature business. They keep growing revenue at a low double-digit rate. They keep buying back stock. They keep doing good capital allocation.
苹果是供应链中最有实力的买家。一家公司可能仅仅因为苹果成为其客户,规模就能翻倍甚至变成三倍。所以苹果有很大的影响力,但即便是它,也无法以合理的价格获得足够的所需内存。
Um, Apple is the most powerful buyer in the supply chain. A company can double or triple just because Apple becomes their customer. Um, so Apple has a lot of pull and even it can't get enough memory that it needs at reasonable price.
而新任CEO John Turnis称这是前所未有的。但当像苹果这样的公司说出这种话,即AI数据中心正在出更高价从苹果手里抢零部件时,这确实只能说明AI建设有多么激烈,以及内存市场的供应有多么受限。
And John Turnis, the new CEO, called this unprecedented. But when a company like Apple is saying something like this, you know, AI data centers are are outbidding Apple for parts, it really just tells you how intense the AI buildout is and how supply constrained the memory market is.
是啊。Lou,我也不得不猜想,当Sam Alman上周末说“哦,我们不该再自私地把所有内存都留给我们的个人设备,应该全都拿去给数据中心,对吧?”的时候,John Turnis肯定不太高兴。
Yeah. Lou, I have to imagine too that uh John Turnis wasn't too happy when Sam Alman said over the weekend, "Oh, we should stop being selfish and have all the memory, you know, to our personal devices and it should all just be going to the data centers, right?"
我可能得把我的401k交给他们。但我不会放弃我的电脑。好吧,Sam。抱歉,不过我觉得这里很难找到什么令人震惊的东西。
I may have to give up my 401k to them. I'm not going to give up my computer. Okay, Sam. Sorry, but uh yeah, I I think you it's hard to find something that's shocking here.
我的意思是,我会说,要说的话,Matt在内存方面说得对,但毛利率仍然下降到了45%。
I mean, I I would say if anything, Matt's right with the memory, but still gross margin fell to 45%.
所以,这真是——我开玩笑说,这是新的伯克希尔·哈撒韦,就是他们怎么都无法让人眼前一亮。可能最让我说“咦”的最大数字,是我读到的与财报相关的一个数字。自6月下旬以来,苹果的市值增加了1万亿美元。1万亿美元。
So, you know, this is such I've joked it's the new Birkshar Hathaway where they just can't impress. Probably the biggest number that made me say, "Huh," was one I read in relation to the earnings.
Apple has gained a trillion dollars in market share since late June. A trillion dollars.
我记得以前这可是一大笔钱。这恰恰说明了我们在这里谈论的规模有多大。这些大船很难调头,也很难做出任何让你说“哇”的事情,或者像你说的,“咦”。
I remember when that used to be a lot of money. It just kind of speaks to just all of the just the the scale we're talking about here. It's hard to move these big battleships and it's hard to really do anything that makes you go, "Wow." or as you say, huh,
感觉我像个脾气暴躁的老头。我会说,我记得苹果市值突破1万亿美元的时候,那真是个关键时刻。我确实想谈一个我一直在纠结的问题,就是重新弄清楚这到底是个真问题,还是只是媒体需要找点东西来谈的问题。
那就是这个折叠屏手机——或者说我们最近在社交媒体帖子、财经媒体以及普通媒体上看到的,就是有报道说苹果推出的这些新折叠屏手机已经开始坏了。
feel like I'm being a cranky old man. I'm like, well, I remember when Apple crossed the $1 trillion mark and it was such this pivotal moment. I I do want to touch on an issue that I I'm struggling to just to re figure out if this is a real problem or if this is just kind of a media needs something to talk about problem.
And that's this folding phone uh is or we've seen recently in social media posts in uh financial media, regular media as well is like there's stories of these new folding phones that Apple bought out and they're already starting to break.
我很好奇,在财报电话会上或新闻稿里,你们有没有读到苹果真的提到了这一点。这到底是不是他们需要面对的真问题,还是说这可能只是因为它是苹果、是个好标题,媒体就想拿来大做文章。
And I was curious if on the earnings call or in the press release, anything you guys have read that Apple actually called this out. Is it actually like a real problem that they need to face or is this maybe just something that's amplified because it's Apple, it's a good headline, and you know, the media wants to run with it.
这是个真问题,但并不是苹果没有预料到的问题。而且这也不是苹果特有的问题。我隔壁邻居有一部Galaxy翻盖手机,过去一年里坏了两次。所以这不是苹果特有的问题。
>> It's a real problem, but it's not one that Apple didn't anticipate. Uh, and it's not an Apple specific problem. My next door neighbor has a a Galaxy flip phone, and it's broken twice in the past year. Uh, so it's not an Apple specific problem.
我确信,苹果的做法之一就是他们总是晚一步入场,就像他们在翻盖手机上那样,在真正把产品推向市场之前先向竞争对手学习。
And I'm sure they one of Apple's things that they do is they they're late to the party like they are on flip phones and they learn from their competitors before they actually go to market with something.
Apple 已经指出,有少量设备受到影响。他们正通过 Apple Care 进行更换。John Turner 特别提到,翻盖手机的需求仍然超过供应。
So Apple's called out that a small number of its units are affected. They're replacing them through Apple Care. They uh John Turner specifically said that demand remains ahead of supply on the flip phones.
所以听起来这确实是个问题,是的,他们入场晚了,但这是好事,因为这让他们有时间准备。他们知道,显然手机一翻开,就比一块砖头似的手机更容易坏。所以这是他们目前已经准备好的问题。这是个相当小的问题。
So it sounds like an issue that yes, they were late to the party in a good way because it let them prepare. They know that, you know, obviously when a phone flips open, it's more breakable than a phone that's essentially a brick.
So, it's it's an issue they prepared for for now. It's a pretty small problem.
不过我觉得,如果真发生了,他们其实并没有准备充分,对吧?你看,这不是对投资者有实质影响的事,但这里有几件事。首先,这很尴尬,因为 CEO John Turnis 在他的第一次电话会上,他是从哪来的?
他来自硬件部门。好吧,这不是他想要的开始方式,这事不会永远持续下去,但就是,为什么会发生这种事。
I don't think they didn't really prepare enough though if it happened though, right? Look, I mean, this isn't for investors needle moving, but there's a few things here. For one, it's embarrassing because nude CEO John Turnis in their his first call, where did he come from?
He came from hardware. Okay, this is not how he wanted to start it, you know, I mean, it's not going to linger forever, but it's just a uh why this hap happened.
另外,我认为这反映了一个本来就已经在消退的东西。已经很久没有人真的觉得“这是 Apple,它就是好用”了。那个光环,我觉得已经差不多消失了。
Also, I think it speaks to something that has been sort of gone anyway. It's been a long time since anybody really like the it's Apple, it just works. That halo, I think that's sort of gone.
但这又回到,你规模越大,参与的事情越多,就越难控制供应链的每一个环节、设计的每一个环节。这就是这里正在发生的情况。但这只是一个成熟公司的问题。
But this is again, the bigger you get, the more you know, the more you're involved in different things, the harder it is to kind of control every element of your supply chain, every element of your design.
That's what's playing out here. But it's just a mature company problem.
看起来这确实是可以解决的。同样,也许在初始季度有几台,看起来不太好,但如果这是他们能随着时间推移解决的问题,那会是个不错的变化。
>> It certainly seems like it can be fixable. Again, like maybe a few in a in the initial quarter doesn't look great, but if this is something they can kind of figure out over time, that would be a nice change.
Lou,你一开始提到了一点,我觉得这是个很好的切入点,你说 Apple 正在变成类似 Berkshire Hathaway 式的投资。财务数据也说明了这一点。他们资产负债表上有大量现金。
他们在偿还债务。他们在回购股票。他们在支付股息,而且仍然有超额自由现金流。他们不像那些超大规模云厂商,不会把所有钱都投入数据中心和其他东西。
Now, Lou, you mentioned something at the top and I feel like this is a good jumping off point where you're saying Apple's becoming a Berkshire Hathawayesque type investment. And the financials say that too.
They got tons of cash on the on the balance sheet. Uh they're paying down debt. They're buying back stock. They're paying a dividend and yet there's still excess free cash flow.
They're not like the hyperscalers. They're not plowing all this money into data centers and all this other stuff.
所以,让我们来当一回纸上 CFO,面对资产负债表上这些四处浮动的超额现金,Blue,你觉得他们接下来应该怎么做?
So, let's play a little like armchair CFO like with all this excess cash in just kind of floating around in the balance sheet. Blue, what do you think they should do next?
是的,这就是我喜欢这个 Berkshire 对比的原因,他们几乎能做什么来真正推动局面呢,对吧?我不知道他们能买什么来真正让人惊叹“哇,这是改变”,你知道,给公司一个全新的视角,他们在做的一切上已经做得很好,过去十年股本已经减半。
>> Yeah, I mean that that's why I love the Birkshshire comparison because almost what can they do to really move the needle, right? I don't know how you can I don't know what they could buy to really make a wow this is a change you know a new just perspective for the company they've done a great job with everything they're doing the share count is cut in half in the last decade
但如果你想要点什么,不如收购 Perplexity,拥有一个模型无关的 Siri,如果 Siri 要来了,带着所有 AI 的好处,为什么要把它绑在 Google 或其他人身上?
为什么不买一家擅长让任何模型都能运作的公司,把它整合进来,这样他们未来就不必依赖任何人。
but if you want something how about perplexity buy perplexity and have like model agnostic Siri if Siri is coming you know with with all the AI goodness why tie that to Google or anyone else why not buy a company that's good at just kind of you know whatever ever model works, just making it work and integrate that in so they're not tied to anyone going forward.
Matt,对于像收购 Perplexity 这样大胆的事,你觉得他们应该用现金去做,还是也许就坚持做那些无聊的事?
>> Matt, anything on the something as bold as buying perplexity you think they should do with their cash or maybe just stick on doing the boring stuff?
回购是无聊但显而易见的答案。我认为他们应该投资于自己的供应链。Apple 可以在它所需的内存芯片上做类似的事。你知道,要么预付内存协议,要么直接投资于一家内存制造商,以确保获得所需的内存。
它可以做很多事,而且有大量现金可以动用,这给了它甚至相对于许多 AI 参与者的优势。所以我希望看到 Apple 在控制供应链方面变得更积极一些。
>> The the buybacks are the boring but the obvious answer. Uh I think they should invest in their supply chain. Apple could do something similar with the memory chips it needs.
You know, either prepaying for memory agreements or invest directly investing in one of the memory makers to secure the memory that it needs. There's a lot that it could do and it has a lot of cash to throw around that gives it an advantage even over a lot of the AI players.
So, I I I'd like to see Apple kind of get a little more aggressive on controlling its supply chain.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。