$AAPL · The Compound · 2026-11-03
AAPL 的财报表现不错，但算不上出色；服务业务增长正在放缓，毛利率随预期一同下滑，内存成本和设备涨价可能对销售构成压力，不过苹果有能力消化成本，产品换代也使其保持在正轨上。它是一只资本开支极低的大盘反AI对冲标的。
逐段跳播
苹果，你对财报有什么看法？你怎么想？我认为它们很好，但非常不非凡。而且我认为股票的反应相当成熟。我不确定本季度苹果是谁在买入，他们依赖本季度的收入来做。我认为购买苹果的人目的不同。
他们寻求收入稳定性，而不是特定的增长利润率。而且我认为他们愿意接受这个赌注。在 John Turnas 的领导下，苹果开发的产品将跟上最近的势头。而且我不认为他们昨晚听到了会改变他们决定的事情。
Apple What is your opinion on the earnings report? What do you think? I think they were good, but very Not very extraordinary. And I think the stock The response was quite mature.
I Not sure who Apple is this quarter They were buying, they were relying on this quarter's income He was doing it on the basis of. I think those who buy Apple The purpose is different.
They are looking for income stability, no Not a specific growth margin. And I think they're willing to take this bet. Under John Turnas, Apple developed its products Will keep up with the recent momentum.
And I don't think they were like that last night. Heard something that would change their decision.
让我们看看数字。我认为苹果股票上涨了约 5%。它附近下跌了。首先，它刚刚收盘下跌 2%。这是一个很好的结果。曾经是。我是说，股市的反应是，谁在乎？就是这样。伙计，几个月前它还在 300。
是的，不，这是一个好的。它回吐了很多，我认为那是一个成熟的反应。
Let's look at the numbers. I think Apple stock is up 5% or so. It went down nearby. First of all, it's just Closed down 2%. This is a great result. Was. I mean, the stock market The reaction is, who cares?
This is it. Dude, it was at 300 a few months ago. Yes, no, this is a good one. It gave back a lot, and I think That was a mature response.
所以，有两件事在给它压力。再次，压力或其他什么，已经下降了 2%，但服务收入增长正在放缓。现在，再次，这是一个巨大的数字，但然而，市场通常不喜欢它，他们肯定会看下一个图表。不喜欢它。
毛利率在下降，他们的估计也在下降。他们在电话会议中说了很多关于内存需求的事情，以及他们如何处理它，因为价格在上涨并保持高位。
So, two things are putting pressure on it. Again, the pressure or whatever, has decreased by 2%, but Revenue growth from services is slowing. Now, again, this is a huge number, but However, the market generally doesn't like it, And they will definitely be the next chart.
Don't like it. Gross margin is decreasing And their estimates are also going down. They A lot of talk about memory requirements in calls said, and how they are handling it because Prices are rising and staying high.
好。这是好消息。当他们明年上半年第四季度然后第一季度报告时，他们将已经应对这种飙升的内存成本。虽然这肯定不是好事，但成本的比较情况与之前相同。不会太糟。
Okay. This is good news. When they are fourth in the first half of next year Quarterly and then first quarter When they report, they will already To cope with this skyrocketing cost of memory Will take.
And while it's certainly not a good thing, the cost The comparative situation is the same as before. It won't be bad.
根据你的观点，问题是，他们进入下一个级别是正常的。这种推动将成为销售的障碍，如果没有，他们本可以。哦，就像他们有触摸屏的新 MacBook。宣布了。是的，但这比以前贵了 900 美元，谁会买？
这些是胡说八道的东西吗？我完全不认识人。你想买吗？所以这是他们 iPhone 的记录。这是边际的。所以他们可以处理它。但消费者无法承受这个额外的价格。他们设法做到了，但他们能走多远？你能增加吗？
The problem according to your point is, which It is normal for them to go to the next level. This push will be an obstacle to sales, which If not, they could have. Oh, like they're new MacBooks with touchscreens.
Announced. Yes, but This is $900 more than before, who's buying? Are these nonsense things? I don't know people at all. Do you want to buy it? So this is a record for their iPhone.
It was marginal. So they can handle it. But consumers can't bear this extra price. They have managed to do it, but how far can they go? Can you increase it?
对。我认为这就是阻碍苹果的原因。但看，我们在苹果的正确轨道上。我们是一个节目。我做了。不。你，我没有。你是。好。在这个节目中，我们做了一整集，我做了一个标题为“为什么苹果 400 会去”的片段，当我们谈话时股票是 310、312。
我回到那个我看到了部分。我们所说的一切都是发生的事情。这是向新管理层的过渡，更关注产品、硬件回归创新，以及增加的材料成本，许多人认为应对处于更好的位置。
Right. And I think that's what's holding Apple back. But look, we're Apple's I was on the right track. We are a show. I did. No. You, I didn't. You were. Okay. On this show, we do an entire episode I did a piece titled Why Apple 400 is going to, and as we were talking The stock was 310, 312.
And I went back to that I saw the part. And everything we said Those are what happened. It was a transition to new management. , More focus on products, hardware Return to innovation, and increased costs of materials What many people think about coping To be in a better position.
苹果实际上完全不同于此。如果你是一个大型成长型经理，你不再与 Google 或 Meta 关联。不想要，但它相当于你的。用市值的东西替换它。有必要做。你能买什么？你还能去哪里？Nvidia 是最大的之一。
Apple is actually completely different beyond that. If you are a big growth manager and You are no longer associated with Google or Meta. Don't want it, but it's equivalent to yours.
Replace it with something of market cap. It is necessary to do. What can you buy? Where else will you go? ? Nvidia is one of the biggest.
只是苹果吗？是的，是苹果。
Is it just Apple? Yes, it's Apple.
我们提到苹果今天收于最高水平。
We mentioned that Apple closed at its highest level today.
谢天谢地苹果不在这场游戏中，因为投资者对苹果仍然平静，但兄弟，这是一件大事，甚至苹果也面临压力。我们已经提到内存消耗正在惊人地增长。《华尔街日报》报道，苹果今年将推出 250 亿美元的闪存设备，高于一年前的 60 亿美元。
本可以花数十亿美元购买。是的。它从 60 亿美元增加到同样的东西。它是 250 亿美元。Tim Cook 内存你知道芯片价格上涨叫什么吗？他将其比作百年一遇的可怕洪水。比较了。
Thank goodness Apple isn't in this game, because Investors are still calm about Apple , but brother, this is a big deal and even Apple is also under pressure. We already I mentioned that the memory consumption is surprisingly Growing.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple to launch 25 million flash storage devices this year billion dollars, up from 6 billion a year ago. Could have been bought for billions of dollars.
Yes. It has increased from 6 billion for the same thing. It's $25 billion. Tim Cook Memory Do you know what the increased price of chips is called? He compared it to the terrible flood of 100 years. Compared.
所以在这个主题上找到了比 Yahoo Finance 更好的信息。也许现在是卖出的时候了，因为现在每个人都说这是对冲。
So Something better than Yahoo Finance on this subject Information found. Maybe it's time to sell now because everyone Now they say this is the hedge.
这对苹果来说是个问题。把它变成对冲。那么，你在这里做什么？你看到的是苹果股票的增长速度，而 SOX，即费城半导体指数，下降了 2% 或更多。这是按年份计算的。所以，这是每年占的。
而今年 65% 的时间当 SOX 下跌 2% 或更多时，苹果有更多。这告诉你什么？字面上。在某种意义上，这就是我们说的会发生的事情。苹果是一个巨大的反 AI 巨头。大盘科技交易。
This is a problem for Apple. Turning it into a hedge. So, what are you doing here? What you're seeing is the growth rate of Apple stock. , while SOX, which is Philly Semiconductor Index, 2% or more Decreased.
And this is according to the year. So, this is Account for each year. And this year 65% of the time when If the SOX falls 2% or more, then Apple There was more. What does this tell you?
It's literal. In a sense, that's what we said would happen. Apple is a big anti-AI giant. Cap Tech Trade.
苹果的资本支出几乎在图表上不显示。它太小了。所以，这是过去四个季度的资本支出。我认为过去四个季度的差异。苹果的增加是 100 亿美元。
Apple's CapEx is almost on the charts It's not showing. It's so small. So, this is the capex for the last four quarters. I think the difference in the last four quarters . Apple's increase is 10 billion.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。