$AAPL · Meet Kevin · 2026-11-03
苹果值得看好但并不便宜：华尔街预期增长9%，而说话者预期16–20%，因为最新季度仅计入Mac Studio一周的销售；他认为其PEG接近2。尽管面临内存成本，毛利率仍从36.8%升至39.3%，自由现金流是Palantir的两倍，他建议小仓位配置。
逐段跳播
像AMD、Apple、Intel这样的大公司，当然还有SuperMicrosoft等公司，刚刚公布了财报，
Big companies like AMD, Apple, Intel, and of course companies like SuperMicrosoft and others, have just announced their earnings,
Apple的现金流收益率是Palantir的两倍。
Apple has twice the cash flow yield of Palantir.
没问题。把我那两台Mac Studio电脑连起来。这让你觉得你对Apple是公平的，因为Apple刚刚公布了利润，并且在内存价格飞涨的时候还在扩大定价权。这就让你不禁想问，等等，Apple是怎么在那段时间提高利润率的？
我得说我不知道，但他们确实做到了。看看这里的利润表。你可以看到Apple产品的毛利率是39.3%。去年是36.8%。所以尽管，或者说尽管内存价格飞涨，利润率还是有了实实在在的提升。
就连他们服务部门的利润率也提高了。这就是定价的力量。这很了不起。
No problem. Connect my two Mac Studio computers together. This makes you feel you are being fair to Apple, as Apple has just announced its profits and is expanding its pricing power at a time when memory prices are skyrocketing.
This then makes you wonder, wait, how does Apple increase its profit margins during that time? I must say that I don't know , but they are succeeding at it. Look at their income statement here.
You can see that the gross profit margins for Apple products are 39.3%. Last year, it was at 36.8%. So you have a tangible improvement in margins despite , or should I say despite, the skyrocketing rise in memory prices.
Even their service sector margins have increased. That's the power of pricing. This is impressive.
Apple、AMD和SuperMicrosoft的利润表现都超出了预期，而且超出幅度很大，并且上调了他们将安装的服务器数量预期。
Apple , AMD, and SuperMicrosoft have outperformed in profits, significantly so, and have raised their expectations for the number of servers they will install.
Nvidia的芯片、Apple的电脑，以及在ASIC电路上
Nvidia chips, Apple computers, and on ASIC circuits
好，我告诉你。AMD和Apple，我很喜欢它们。我在这两家都有投资。它们目前不是最便宜的选择。根据华尔街的估计，Apple的估值非常高，不过我认为他们的数字会是错的。华尔街预计Apple只增长9%。
我认为那会高得多。他们最新的财报只包含了新“Mac Studio”设备一周的销售。他们将实现超出所有人预期的增长。因此，我估计他们的增长率大约在16%到20%之间。我会把他们放在更接近2倍的市盈增长率（PEG）上。
但他们也有非常强劲的资产负债表和稳健的现金流，你知道，是Palantir自由现金流的两倍，这非常好。
Okay, I'll tell you. AMD and Apple, I love them. I have investments in both of them. They are not the cheapest options at the moment. Apple has a very high valuation based on Wall Street estimates, although I think their figures would be wrong.
Wall Street expects Apple to grow by only 9%. I think that will be much higher. Their latest earnings report included only one week of sales for the new "Mac Studio" device. They will achieve growth that exceeds all expectations.
Therefore, I estimate their growth to be between 16 and 20 percent approximately. I would place them closer to a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of two. But they also have a very strong balance sheet, and solid cash flows, you know, double the free cash flow of Palantir, which is very good.
那我为什么提这个？嗯，如果Apple大约在2.1到接近4之间，取决于你用谁的估计，
So why am I bringing this up? Well , if Apple is around 2.1 to nearly four depending on whose estimates you use,
所以，基于更高的增长率，Apple处于第二档。
So, Apple was at level two based on a higher growth rate .
相反，在Marvel投一点，在Broadcom投一点，在AMD投一点，在Apple投一点，在Nvidia投一点。
Instead, invest a little in Marvel, a little in Broadcom, a little in AMD, a little in Apple , and a little in Nvidia.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 23 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。