$AAPL · Verified Investing · 2026-11-03
AAPL 财报表现良好却下跌，原因是资金从它的反 AI 交易轮动回 AI；内存成本侵蚀利润并限制其跑赢表现。说话者会在 325 附近按兵不动，认为它并不便宜，只有在 300 附近、即上升通道下沿才会做多，不过他并不预期会跌到那么低。
逐段跳播
昨天盘后我们公布了Apple和Palunteer的财报，但今天早上我们先来看一下标普期货。
We had Apple Palunteer earnings yesterday after the bell, but let's go first check on the S&P futures this morning.
更多是Apple，我来告诉你为什么。Apple公布了不错的数字，但股价却下跌了。Apple一直是反AI交易的代表。在AI交易崩塌的同时，它却一路上涨，创下历史新高。换句话说，资金正从AI交易中撤出，流入Apple。
而今天Apple在财报后下跌，资金正在轮动回来，至少在今天开盘时，是回流到AI交易那边。
It was more so Apple, and I'm going to tell you why. So, Apple reported good numbers, but the stock fell. Apple has been the anti- AI trade. It has gone higher, made new all-time highs while the AI trade has crumbled.
In other words, money was coming out of the AI trades and going into Apple. With Apple falling today after earnings, money is rotating back, at least at the start of the day today, back towards the AI trade.
Apple因财报下跌。Apple实际上财报非常非常好。营收超预期。盈利指引或者说盈利超预期，指引也还行，但关键在于这只股票在过去几个月里已经大幅上涨。再说一次，正如我所说，它是反AI交易，所以股价一直在涨。
这次财报依然很好，非常好，但它们确实强调了内存成本正在侵蚀利润，并且是它们甚至无法表现得更强的主要原因之一。
Apple is down on earnings. Apple actually had very very good earnings. They beat on revenue. They beat on guidance or on on earnings and did all right on guidance, but the key was this stock had traded up tremendously going up over the last couple months.
Again, the anti- AI trade as I said and so the stock was going up. These earnings again were good. They were very good, but they did highlight memory costs as eating into profits and as a major kind of reason they're not even outperforming more.
现在从技术分析的角度看，我们看到Apple在盘前交易在325附近。首先我们看大格局，Apple的大格局是一个漂亮的上升平行通道。每次触及上轨就被压回。每次触及下轨就会出现大幅反弹。
所以我们一直处于这个上升趋势中。所以，这告诉我的是，作为一名波段交易者，我需要暂时观望Apple，即使我认为它在这里很便宜——其实我现在并不这么认为——而是要寻找平行通道的下轨。
平行通道的下轨大约在300这个整数关口。如果我们回到那个位置，那才是我会考虑做多波段交易的地方。但除此之外，对于今天的下跌，如果我要做日内交易，说实话，我可能也会等到300。我不认为它会跌那么多。
对于像Apple这样市值5万亿美元的稳定公司来说，那将是巨大的跌幅。但再说一次，在未来几个交易日里，300这个水平将是我潜在交易机会的区域。
Now on a technical analysis basis here we see Apple trading around 325 in the pre-market. First of all we look at the bigger picture here and the bigger picture of Apple is a beautiful ascending parallel channel.
Every time we hit the high end it gets rejected. Every time we hit the low end you get a big bounce. So we've been in this uptrend. So, what this tells me is that as a swing trader, I need to stay back on Apple even if I think it's on sale here, which I really don't think at this point, but to look for the low end of the parallel channel.
The low end of the parallel channels around the 300 even number. Should we come into that, that would be where I would consider playing it as a swing trade long. But aside from that, on this drop today, if I was going to day trade it, honestly, I'd probably wait for the 300 as well.
I don't expect it to drop that much. That would be a massive drop on a $5 trillion kind of stable company like Apple. But again, that over the next few trading days, that 300 level is going to be my zone of potential trading opportunities.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。