$AAPL · Schwab Network · 2026-11-03
尽管每股收益和营收均超预期，AAPL仍下跌逾3%，因股价此前已上涨24%，市场预期极高。产品毛利率恶化——可能源于与新Siri AI相关的内存成本上升——仍是近期的主要问题。营收增长约12%至1145亿美元，但增速较16%放缓；iPhone增长17%。当前远期市盈率为36至37倍，且目标价正被下调，说话者质疑其还有多少下跌空间，不过自由现金流和强劲的资产负债表使其成为轮动交易中的避风港。
逐段跳播
我们确实有一些让你感兴趣的、来自 Apple 和 Palantir 的利润。
We certainly have some profits that interest you with Apple and Palantir.
如果科技板块出现急剧反转，那就要当心了。我们盘前有一点买盘，但 Apple 尽管业绩好于预期，仍然承压。是的，Diane，我们昨天谈过这个。Apple 的股价昨天在财报发布前下跌，但在财报事件之前它仍上涨了约24%，而且正如我们谈过的，他们必须满足所有预期，但他们没有做到。
这很可能解释了为什么你看到今天股价下跌超过3%，因为预期的天花板非常高。
Well, if we see a sharp reversal in the technology sector, beware. We have a little pre-market buying, but Apple is under pressure despite its better-than-expected results. Yes, Diane, we talked about this yesterday.
Apple's stock fell yesterday ahead of the report, but it remained up about 24% before the earnings event, and as we talked, they had to meet all the expectations, but they didn't.
This probably explains why you saw this decline of more than 3% in stocks today, because the ceiling of expectations was very high.
那些前瞻性估值是未来12个月盈利的36到37倍，然后你出来说：“我们的每股收益超出了预期，营收也超出了预期，但产品毛利率的恶化仍是近期的一个主要问题，这很可能是由于与新的 AI 数字助手 Siri 相关的内存成本上升所致。”
Those forward-looking valuations are 36 to 37 times earnings for the next 12 months, and then you come out and say: "We have exceeded earnings per share, we have exceeded revenue, but the deterioration of gross margins for products remains a major near-term issue, and this is probably due to the higher memory costs related to the new AI digital assistant, Siri."
总营收增长约12%，达到1145亿美元。这高于预期，但销售增长实际上较上一季度16%的增速有所放缓。所以，这是 iPad 表现的疲软之处，中国及其可穿戴设备业务也令人失望。iPhone 再次成为亮点。
一个持续的超级周期。iPhone 营收增长17%，达到9月季度创纪录的576亿美元，超过了他们此前预期的565亿美元。
Total revenues increased by approximately 12% to reach $114.5 billion. That was higher than expected, but sales growth actually slowed from a 16% growth rate in the previous quarter.
So, this was a weakness in the iPad's performance, and China and its wearable devices business were disappointing. Once again, the iPhone was the standout item. A continuous super cycle. iPhone revenue grew 17% to a record $57.6 billion for the September quarter, exceeding the $56.5 billion they had expected.
数字不错，但我们谈过这个。当你的评级这么高时，你就应该做到一切。这只股票此前表现优异。现在，它会继续下行吗？
Good numbers, but we've talked about this. You should achieve everything when your rating is this high. This stock was outperforming. Now, will it continue moving downwards?
最近它被用作轮动交易中的避险标的，仅仅是因为它的自由现金流、强劲的资产负债表，以及与其他科技公司相比资本支出影响极小。所以，你需要把这一点考虑进去。我们看到目标价方面出现了一些下调，但与此同时，如果这只股票继续作为避险交易的替代选择，那么即便估值如此之高，潜在的下跌空间能有多大？
当你开始谈论利润率时，情况什么时候会改善？内存芯片价格什么时候会下降？也许不会很快。
Well, it has been used as a safe haven in rotational trades recently, simply because of its free cash flow, strong balance sheet, and minimal impact of capital expenditures compared to other technology companies.
So, you need to take that into account. We are seeing some pullbacks in terms of price targets, but at the same time, if this stock continues as an alternative to safe-haven trades, how much of a potential fall is possible even though valuations are so high?
When you start talking about the margins, when will things improve? When will memory chip prices decrease? Perhaps not soon.
观察点
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 50 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。