$AAPL · StockCharts TV · 2026-11-03
AAPL 财报前的图表结构偏建设性：股价守住上行的 50 日均线，200 日均线略高于 300 美元，已触及 10 月高点，上升趋势仍然完好，因此在被证伪之前可视为良好。但自 5 月以来，RSI 在接连创出历史新高时持续走弱；若财报令人失望，股价跌破 50 日均线和 330 附近支撑，下一个下行目标约在 300 美元，即再跌 8% 至 10%。
逐段跳播
这件事正好发生在苹果于盘后发布财报之前。
This is happening just before Apple's earnings report is released after the market closes.
一个是微软，第二个是苹果，第三个是特斯拉。话不多说，我要给你们看的前两张图是苹果和特斯拉。我把这10张图分成了五对。前两个是重要的成长型股票，至少我认为它们仍然展现出相当有建设性的技术形态。
One is Microsoft, the second is Apple, the third is Tesla. And without further ado, the first two charts I'm going to show you are Apple and Tesla. I have divided these 10 charts into five pairs.
The first two are major growth names, at least I think they still show quite a constructive technical setup.
整个局面可能会在未来12到24小时内发生变化，因为苹果的财报将在今天盘后发布。我们可以看到，今天这轮交易中成交量有所增加。在今天财报发布前，它在美国东部时间中午时下跌了约2%。
但它是少数在10月创下新高的Mag Seven公司之一，我认为这一点应该被认可。
This entire game could change in the next 12 to 24 hours, with Apple's earnings report due after the market closes today. And we can see that share sales have increased in today's session.
It was down about 2% at noon Eastern Time before today's report. But this is one of the few Mag Seven companies that reached new highs in October, and I think it should be acknowledged.
这会把我们带到苹果财报发布前的什么位置？所以目前来说是安全的，对吧？我们守住了上行的50日移动均线。我们的上行200日移动均线就在每股300美元上方。按照我的分析，我会说在证明有罪之前它是无罪的，对吧？
我认为它已经处于上升趋势相当长一段时间了。再说一次，这是少数在10月创下新高的Mag Seven股票之一，我认为这很重要。它是Mag Seven中少数尚未跌破50日和200日移动均线、并且处于上升趋势的股票之一。它满足所有条件。
Where does this take us ahead of Apple's earnings report? So it's safe for now , right? We have maintained the upward 50- day moving average. Our upward 200-day moving average is just above $300 per share.
According to my analysis, I would say it's innocent until proven guilty , right? I think it has been on an upward trend for quite some time. Again , this is one of the handful of Mag Seven names that reached new highs in October, and I think that's important.
It is one of the few names in the Mag Seven that has not yet broken its 50- and 200- day moving averages and is trending upwards. It meets all the conditions.
如果我们对今天盘后的财报感到失望，我个人会把300看作下一个合理的下行目标。那将是200日移动均线。此外，7月底或8月中旬的波段低点也包含在内。你可以看到正好在300附近。所以，我认为如果我们跌破50日移动均线，如果我们跌破330附近的支撑位并继续下行，那么300大概率会是我的下一个下行目标。
那将比我们目前看到的再下跌8%到10%。但我要说，总体而言，这张图仍然相当不错。
If we are disappointed by the earnings report after today's close , I personally would see 300 as the next reasonable downside target. That would be the 200-day moving average.
In addition, the swing lows of late July or mid-August are also included. You can see right around 300. So, I think if we break the 50-day moving average , if we break the support level near 330 and go down, then 300 would probably be my next downside target.
That would be another 8 to 10 percent decline than what we've seen so far. But I would say overall, the chart is still pretty good.
我是说，从技术角度看，我想说还有一点值得提，这张图让我担心。这就是为什么我认为密切关注它极其重要。看5月创下的历史新高，RSI大约在80，显示超买。看7月中旬的下一个历史新高，RSI峰值大约在72。
在7月底的下一个历史新高时，RSI大约在68。看9月底对该历史新高的下一次回测，RSI大约在70，我们可以说是76或77。我在看哪里？抱歉，我在这里说65。然后，大约一周前我们创下了一个历史新高，当时RSI大约在63。
所以，看起来自5月以来苹果每次创下历史新高时，RSI都在走弱。随着股价创新高，这看起来像是一个重大的背离。所以，动能确实似乎在减弱，但作为趋势跟随者，我会说趋势仍然是正面的。
I mean, from a technical perspective, I would say there's another thing worth mentioning that concerns me about this chart. This is why I think it is extremely important to monitor it.
Look at the new all-time high for May, with the RSI at around 80, indicating overbought. Look at the next new all-time high in mid-July , where the RSI peaked at around 72. At the next all-time high in late July, the RSI was around 68.
Look at the next retest of that all-time high in late September , RSI around 70, we could call it 76 or 77. Where am I looking? Sorry, I'll say 65 right there. Now, about a week ago we reached a new all-time high, where the RSI was around 63.
So, it seems that every time Apple has reached a new all-time high since May, the RSI has weakened. It looks like a major divergence as the stock reaches new highs. So, it definitely seems like the momentum is waning, but as a trend follower, I would say the trend is still positive.
我认为这是一张值得关注的重要图表，因为只要它处于正面趋势中，记住这一点就很重要。但从市场分析的角度来看也是如此，对吧？我是说，如果苹果——在这些图表中一直是最强的——都无法带着一些乐观情绪挺过它的财报，那么我不难想象11月AI相关股票会进一步下跌，那会让2026年看起来很像2014年或2018年。
I think this is an important chart to watch because as long as it is in a positive trend, it is important to remember that. But also from a market analysis perspective , right?
I mean, if Apple, which has been the strongest on these charts, ca n't get through its earnings report with some optimism, I don't think it's hard to imagine anything other than a further decline from the AI names in November, which would make 2026 look a lot like 2014 or 2018.
所以，苹果的图是第一张，我认为在证明相反之前它是一张好图。今天的财报将非常重要。
So, Apple's chart is number one, I think it's a good chart until something else is proven. Today's earnings report is going to be very important.
观察点
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。