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$AAPL · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-03

AI 摘要 · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

苹果在财报后下跌并不构成买入机会:尽管业绩出色,但其估值过高——远期市盈率超过34,现金流折现估值为204美元,而股价为338美元;此前该股在2026年上涨超过20%,涨幅接近标普500的两倍。说话者将等待更好的价格再买入。

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《Is Apple Stock a Buy After Earnings? | AAPL Stock Analysis》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-11-03 · 14 段内容
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14 段内容
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Apple 宣布,随着 iPhone 销售火爆,其净销售额升至 1145 亿美元。然而,在公司公布季度财务业绩后,Apple 的股价下跌了超过 3%。

Apple announced that its net sales rose to $114.5 billion as iPhone sales boomed . However, Apple's stock price fell by more than 3% following the release of the company's quarterly financial results.

那么,股价为什么下跌,这算不算一个买入机会?这些是我在审阅公司季度财务报表后想要得到答案的问题。令人意外的是,在截至 2026 年 9 月 26 日的上一季度,Apple 的产品销售额超过了其服务销售额。

So why did the stock price drop and is this a buying opportunity? These are the questions I want answered after reviewing the company's quarterly financial statements . Surprisingly, Apple's product sales outperformed its services sales in the last quarter ending September 26, 2026.

我说这令人意外,是因为公司的产品销售额通常在假日季——也就是下一个季度——表现更好。此外,公司当时正准备发布一款全新的大规模 iPhone,它也确实推出了“两款 iPhone”,而令人意外的是,许多买家在那款新产品发布之前就购买了 iPhone。

I say it's surprising because the company's product sales usually perform better during the holiday quarter, which is the next quarter. In addition, the company was preparing to announce a new and massive iPhone, which it did by launching the "Two iPhones," and was surprised to see many buyers purchasing the iPhone before the release of that new product.

此外,Apple 一如既往地在控制成本方面做得很好,即使零部件通胀上升,其营业利润仍同比增长 32 亿美元,达到 356 亿美元,整体增幅约为 10%。内存和存储的高成本对 Apple 的业务产生了负面影响,因为公司需要支付将这些产品集成到其设备中的投入成本。

In addition, Apple, as it always has, did a great job of controlling costs, even with rising component inflation, and its operating income rose by $3.2 billion year-over-year to $35.6 billion, representing an overall increase of approximately 10%.

The high costs of memory and storage negatively affect Apple's business due to the input costs it pays to integrate those products into its devices .

无论你买的是 iPad、iPhone 还是 MacBook Pro,你都需要内存和存储,而自 AI 热潮以来,这些组件的价格已经上涨了三位数以上。

Whether you're buying an iPad, iPhone, or MacBook Pro, you need memory and storage, and the prices of those components have risen by more than three figures since the AI ​​oom .

Apple 也是上一季度在中国取得显著改善并表现良好的少数美国公司之一,该地区销售额升至 175 亿美元,而去年同期为 145 亿美元。

Apple is also one of the few US companies that has made significant improvements and performed well in China in the last quarter, with sales in the region rising to $17.5 billion, compared to $14.5 billion in the same period last year.

在截至上一季度的九个月里,其销售额跃升至 824 亿美元,高于去年同期的 640 亿美元。iPhone 销售是 Apple 的一大亮点,升至 576 亿美元,而去年同期为 490 亿美元。

全年来看,iPhone 销售额跃升至 2540 亿美元,高于 2090 亿美元,尽管有传言称即将迎来大规模升级周期。

For the nine months that ended in the last quarter. Its sales jumped to $82.4 billion, up from $64 billion in the same period of the previous year. iPhone sales were a major bright spot for Apple , rising to $57.6 billion, compared to $49 billion in the same period last year.

For the entire year, iPhone sales jumped to $254 billion, up from $209 billion, even amid rumors of a massive upgrade cycle to come.

“iPhone Duo”已经售罄,如果你今天下单,要等到 1 月中旬才能收到手机。这意味着当前 iPhone 销量很可能被低估了,仅“双 iPhone”就达到 1000 万部,而且平均售价远高于上一轮 iPhone 升级周期。

The "iPhone Duo" is already sold out, and you will have to wait until mid-January to receive your phone if you order today. This means that current iPhone sales are likely to be undervalued at 10 million units for the "dual iPhone" only, and that the average selling price is much higher than it was in the previous iPhone upgrade cycle.

Apple 在 2026 年表现优于同行,因为它没有在人工智能上大举投入,却仍实现了强劲的收入增长。事实上,在最近一个季度,其资产、厂房和设备扣除折旧后仅估值 520 亿美元。

Amazon 仅在最近一个季度就在这一类别上花费了近 800 亿美元。这只是为了让你了解 Apple 与同行之间差距的规模有多大。

Apple outperformed its peers in 2026 because it did not spend heavily on artificial intelligence, yet it still achieved strong revenue growth. In fact, in its most recent quarter , its assets, plants and equipment were valued at only $52 billion after deducting depreciation .

Amazon spent nearly $80 billion in this category in its most recent quarter alone. This is just to give you perspective on the sheer size of the difference in range between Apple and its peers.

Apple 保持了其轻资产商业模式。它没有投资人工智能。它没有投资制造业。因此,它能够在不大幅扩张资产基础的情况下实现销售增长,使公司得以维持其出色的资产负债表。

Apple has maintained its asset-light business model. It did not invest in artificial intelligence. It did not invest in manufacturing. Consequently, it was able to achieve sales growth without expanding its asset base, allowing the company to maintain its excellent balance sheet .

这正是 Apple 相对于其他大型科技公司的最大优势所在:现金流。过去 12 个月,它产生了 1450 亿美元的运营现金流,高于去年同期的 1110 亿美元。由于无需进行资本支出投资,它在这一类别上仅花费了 90 亿美元。

其自由现金流在同业中无可争议地最佳,使 Apple 能够用这些现金回购股票并减少流通股数量。过去 12 个月,它在股票回购上花费了惊人的 860 亿美元。

This is where Apple's biggest advantage over other major technology companies comes in: cash flow. It generated $145 billion in cash flow from operations in the last 12 months , up from $111 billion in the same period last year.

Since it did not need to invest in capital expenditures, it barely spent $9 billion in this category. Its free cash flow is undisputedly best in its class, allowing Apple to use that cash to repurchase shares and reduce the number of outstanding shares.

It spent a staggering $86 billion on share buybacks in the previous 12 months.

那么,既然有这么多利好,为什么 Apple 的股价在盘后交易中下跌了超过 3.25%?这主要归因于 Apple 在这些季度业绩发布之前的股价表现。自 2026 年初以来,Apple 的股价已经上涨了超过 20%,几乎是标普 500 指数涨幅的两倍,并在大型科技公司同行中表现突出。

So, with all these positives, why is Apple's stock price down by more than 3.25 percent in after-hours trading? This is mainly due to Apple's stock performance prior to the release of these quarterly earnings results .

Apple's stock had already risen by more than 20% since the start of 2026, nearly doubling the S&P 500 and outperforming its peers among major technology companies .

正如我之前提醒投资者的那样,其估值已经变得很高。该股当时的远期市盈率超过 34 倍。此外,用贴现现金流模型计算,公司估值为 204 美元,而在这些业绩发布前,当前市价为 338 美元。

Its valuation has become high, just as I had previously warned investors. The stock was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 34. In addition, when calculated using the discounted cash flow model, the company was valued at $204, while the current market price was $338 before these results.

那么,回答这个问题:在这次小幅下跌之后,我是否认为 Apple 股票代表一个买入机会?我不这么认为。尽管公司表现出色,我仍然认为 Apple 的股票被高估了,我会等待更好的价格再入场。

So , to answer the question, do I think Apple stock represents a buying opportunity after this slight decline? I don't think so. I still believe that Apple's stock is overvalued despite the company's excellent performance, and I will wait for a better price to enter.

这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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