$AAPL · Schwab Network · 2026-11-04
苹果具有防御性，但当前处于历史高位的原因并不正确，缺乏创新与AI；说话者预计市场会在两个月内意识到这一点，而非短期。他于1月15日建立的335/325看跌价差成本为3.15，需要苹果在1月底前跌破325；随着流动性转移，他预计会进一步下跌。
逐段跳播
这不像是在交易苹果股票。
This is not like trading in Apple stock.
我们把苹果列为你的第三个选项。最近我们有过很多讨论，大多是在财报发布之前，讨论它到底是一门反AI的生意，还是这个领域里的防御性选择。你怎么看苹果，以及我们从它身上得到的结果？
And we have Apple as your third option. We've had a lot of conversations recently, mostly prior to the earnings report, about whether it's an anti-AI business or a defensive option in this area.
What is your view of Apple and the results we obtained from it?
这正是我现在在看的。今天这本质上就是在买苹果。苹果再一次成为防御性选项，但它也已经变成了一场彻底的“伽马挤压”。这基本上意味着交易已经开始转向苹果。今早开盘铃响了，散户交易者看到了这一点，开始蜂拥买入苹果的看涨期权，于是股价上涨了。
但现在买苹果和买沃尔玛这样的股票有什么不同？嗯，它是一个非常防御性的选项。就像我说的，这可以说是一个三部曲，体现在缺乏创新上。告诉我，你的iPhone双机现在怎么样了？利润惩罚了这只股票，嗯，几天前。
而现在我们处在历史纪录水平，而且再一次，标普500中市值最大的公司并没有被认真对待。我简直无法接受。我相信有一个演示可以追溯到根本源头。我们正在出于完全错误的理由转移资本，转向任何同样缺乏创新和人工智能的东西。
市场会在未来两个月内意识到这一点。但最后这句话才是重点：未来两个月。这不是一笔短期交易。我会回到1月15日的期权到期日，我会买入行权价335的看跌期权。我会买入行权价335的看跌期权，卖出行权价325的看跌期权。
这是一个整整10美元的看跌期权价差，执行成本为3.15美元。尽管这只股票到目前为止涨得非常快，但它很可能会跌得更低。但你看，底线是我们需要标的资产从现在到1月底低于325，低于325。
随着流动性在这些板块进出，这极有可能发生。但苹果，再一次，在我看来，是那些出于错误理由创下历史新高的股票之一。
You know, that's exactly what I'm looking at here. This, as you know, is buying an Apple specifically today. Apple, once again, is the defensive option, but it has also turned into a full-blown "gamma squeeze".
What this basically means is that trading has started to shift towards Apple. The opening bell rang this morning. Individual traders saw this, and began rushing in to buy Apple call options, and we went up.
But how does buying Apple now differ from buying a stock like Walmart? Well, it's a very defensive option. As I said, this is like a trilogy, so to speak, in terms of lack of innovation.
Tell me, how are your iPhone duos doing now? The profits punished the stock, well, a few days ago. And here we are, at historic record levels, and once again, the largest market capitalization in the S&P 500 is not taking it seriously.
I simply cannot accept that. I believe there is a presentation that goes back to a fundamental source. We are transferring capital for entirely the wrong reasons, to anything that again lacks innovation and artificial intelligence.
The market will realize this within the next two months. But this last phrase is the important part: the next two months. This is not a short-term deal. I will go back to the option expiry date of January 15th, and I will buy put options at 335.
I will buy put options at 335, and sell put options at 325. It is a put option spread of a full $10, executed at a cost of $3.15. Although this stock has risen very quickly so far, it is likely to fall even lower.
But look, the bottom line is that we need the underlying asset to be below 325, below 325 from now until the end of January. This is highly likely to occur as liquidity moves in and out of these sectors.
But Apple, once again, is one of those stocks that is hitting historic highs for the wrong reasons, in my opinion.
好。所以，我们正站在这些历史纪录水平上。我们还有另一个水平，今天的354.33。苹果股价在对其财报和假日季展望可能出现的负面反应之后上涨了约6%。
Good. So, we are standing right at these historic record levels. We have another level, 354.33 today. Apple's stock rose by about 6% after a potentially negative reaction to its earnings report and holiday quarter outlook.
苹果也明显落后。我的意思是，遗憾的是，Siri在这个阶段除了设置提醒或计时器这类基本功能之外，处理不了更多东西。所以，我真的很想看看未来几天这会走向何方，因为财报的一部分说他们正试图在Siri的AI能力上投入更多。
不过，在这里，我们在340或345附近看到的那些旧纪录水平现在已经被突破了。我们正在突破它。价格目前接近那些纪录水平，接近我们最近几周之前记录的那些350附近的旧水平。所以，在我们现在开始这个选举后交易体系之际，这是一个有趣的情况。
所以，我们可以看到，我们这里的白色趋势线，穿过这些基准水平的那条，在这一点上已经在很大程度上被决定性地突破了。所以，我们接下来要看的移动平均线是再次交汇的5日和21日移动平均线。
这些水平大约在342，价格今天到目前为止已从该水平反弹。我们将不得不观察它是否会继续守住。我们也回到了这里的蓝色通道。我们的上行轨迹仍然完好。相对强弱指数（RSI）仍然显示我们有一条尚未触及的长期红色趋势线，尽管我们在50中线上方快速向下交叉然后向上交叉。
所以，如果你的展望乐观，就预期那会发生；如果你的展望悲观，就预期该指数再次受挫并跌破50。所以，这里的成交量节点，大约在335和343，是突出的区域。现在，我们移动到交易强度较低的这个区域，这很合理。
我们在这些较高水平上没有花太多时间，但如果我们开始下行，它们可能是支撑区。所以，343和335附近的这些区域是我们从规模角度观察的地方。
Apple is also significantly behind. I mean, unfortunately, Siri can't handle more than the basics like setting a reminder or timer at this stage. So, I'm really curious to see where this is headed in the coming days, because part of the earnings report said they were trying to invest more in Siri's AI capabilities.
However, here, these old record levels that we saw near 340 or 345 have now been broken. We are on our way to overcoming it here. The price is currently close to those record levels, close to those old levels around 350 that we previously recorded in recent weeks.
So, an interesting situation as we begin this post-election trading system now. So, we can see that our white trend line here, which passes through these benchmark levels, has been decisively broken to a large extent at this point.
So, the next moving averages we will look at are the 5-day and 21-day moving averages that meet again. These levels reach around 342, from which the price has bounced so far today.
We will have to watch to see if it will continue to hold out. We've also returned to our blue channel here. Our upward trajectory remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still shows that we have a long-term red trend line that we have not yet reached, despite our rapid crossover downwards and then upwards above the midline at 50 here.
So, expect that to happen if your outlook is optimistic, or expect the index to stumble again and fall below 50 if your outlook is pessimistic. So, the volume nodes here, around 335 and 343, were the standout areas.
Now, we move to this area with less intense trading, which makes sense. We haven't spent much time at these higher levels here, but they could be support zones if we start moving downwards.
So, these areas around 343 and 335 are our places to observe from a size perspective.
好。目前，苹果股票回到了新高。我们略低于该水平，但今天触及了它。我们目前是351.17，盘中上涨近6%。
Good. Currently, we have Apple stock back at a new high. We are a little below it, but we touched it today. We are currently at 351.17, up nearly 6% in the session.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 50 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。