$AAPL · Schwab Network · 2026-11-03
Apple 依赖渐进式更新而非创新,他质疑客户还能为每次100美元的加价买单多久;投入成本上升挤压利润率,而在没有新战略的情况下,股价下跌是合理的反应。其市盈率高于标普500,他怀疑在没有真正新技术的情况下这一水平还能维持多久。
逐段跳播
接下来是投资者对 Apple 最新业绩的反应。我们的下一位嘉宾说:“要留意 iPhone 的升级周期;它作为增长引擎可能不够充分。”
Where investors react to Apple's latest results . Our next guest says: "Be mindful of the iPhone upgrade cycle; it may not be sufficient as an engine for growth."
我刚才在和 Slatestone Wealth 的 Kenny Pokkari 交谈,他说:“你看,谁会为 Apple 的 1144 亿美元营收感到困扰呢?”听着,你说这是一个强劲的季度,但它是否为下一个增长引擎奠定了基础?
I was just talking to Kenny Pokkari of Slatestone Wealth, and he said, "Look, who would be bothered by Apple's $114.4 billion in revenue ?" Listen, you say it's a strong quarter, but does it lay the groundwork for the next growth engine ?
我认为真正的问题是升级与创新之别。Apple 历来如此,坦白说在近期也是如此,依赖的是更新,而不是必然依赖任何创新。
Well, I think the real question is upgrading versus innovation. You know, Apple has historically, and frankly in recent history, relied on updates rather than necessarily on any innovation.
所以,让我们担心的是,客户还会为这些更新多付多少钱,以及他们什么时候会对更新感到厌倦?这是个问题。其次,我希望 Apple 在谈到其新增客户时能披露,我想知道:这些人是升级用户、转投用户,还是新客户?
这会让我们对增长轨迹有更清晰的认识,但目前这方面还有很多问号,而且我对这些以 100 美元为增量的持续更新非常批判。作为一种增长现象,这还能持续多久?
So, what worries us is how much more customers will pay for these updates, and when will they get bored with the update? This is a matter. Secondly, I hope Apple will disclose, when it talks about its additional customers, I want to know: are they people upgrading, switching, or new customers ?
This will give us greater clarity on the growth trajectory, but at the moment, there are a lot of question marks about it, and I am very critical of these continuous updates with $100 increments.
How long can this continue as a growth phenomenon?
但平心而论,这两款产品,我知道它没有计入上一季度的业绩,对 Apple 来说是新的东西。他们此前并未进入折叠屏手机市场。你认为这作为一种潜在激励因素怎么样?
But, to be fair, the duo, and I know it was n't counted in these last quarter results , is something new for Apple. You know, they weren't in the foldable phone market. What do you think of that as a potential incentive?
是的,我在笑,因为我相信这印证了我的看法:这不算创新。他们只是在照抄其他手机厂商。因此,我非常失望。我很不想回到 Steve Jobs 的时代,但我想知道,如果他看到 Apple 如今的战略处境,会怎么想。
Yes, I am smiling because I believe this reinforces my position that this is not an innovation. They are simply copying other phone manufacturers. Therefore, I am very disappointed.
I hate going back to the days of Steve Jobs, but I wonder what he would have thought if he had looked at Apple’s strategic position now.
既然我们在谈新产品,Diane,我们应该谈谈触屏 MacBook。我相信你的观众和听众都意识到,他们现在宣传的是触屏,但那是横向屏幕。想想看,如果你触摸的是竖向屏幕,抱歉,是竖向屏幕而不是横向屏幕,你会感到舒服多少、又会疲惫多少。
而一旦如此,这就只是一款在直觉上不易使用的产品。我想 Jobs 先生会说:“要触摸一块竖向屏幕,这太荒谬了。”比如,我们在飞机上都有这种体验。如果你竖向看屏幕,过一会儿就会感到身体疲惫。
所以,想象一下用这样的 MacBook 工作几个小时。我就是觉得这不是看待新技术的正确视角。
And while we're talking about new products, Diane, we should talk about the touchscreen MacBook. I'm sure your viewers and listeners realize that what they are advertising now is a touchscreen, but it's a horizontal screen.
Just think how much more comfortable and tired you would feel from touching a vertical screen, excuse me, a vertical screen and not a horizontal one. And when that happens, it is simply a product that is not intuitively easy to use.
I think Mr. Jobs would have said, "It's ridiculous to have a vertical screen that you have to touch." We all experience this on airplanes, for example. If you watch your screen vertically, after a while you will feel physically exhausted.
So, imagine working on a MacBook like this for several hours. I just don't think it's the right view of the new technology.
好,你认为这不是看待新技术的正确视角,但我们接着谈谈利润率。这显然是从现在起会被提出的担忧之一。然而,Turnus 管理下的利润率实际上比 Cook 时期更好。为什么会有这么多担忧?是因为市场原本预期更高的利润率吗?
Okay, you don't think that's the right view of the new technology, but let's move on to talk a little about profit margins. This is clearly one of the concerns that will be raised from now on.
However, the margins under Turnus's management are actually better than they were under Cook. Why is there so much concern? Was it because the market was expecting larger margins?
是的,投资者当然喜欢看到稳定的利润率,即使不是持续增长。因此,投入成本将会更高这一事实会给利润率带来压力。我认为这再次凸显了他们重新制造产品这一事实。而像利润率这样的东西,如果这是一款全新的产品,我认为投资者不会那么敏感。
但他们的策略是:我们会改进现有产品,这没什么新意,然而我们需要这些利润率上升,或者至少保持稳定。所以,当你缺乏战略而投入成本又在上升时,我认为股价下跌是合理的反应,因为这表明增长轨迹可能不如预期。
Yes, of course investors like to see consistent profit margins, if not constantly growing. Therefore, the fact that input costs will be higher will put pressure on margins. I think this highlights once again the fact that they remanufacture products.
And something like margin, you know, if it were a completely new product, I do n't think investors would be that sensitive. But the strategy is: we will improve existing products, nothing new in that, yet we need these margins to be increasing or at least stable.
So, when you lack strategy and input costs are rising, I think it's a reasonable reaction for the stock to decline, because it shows that the growth trajectory may not be as hoped.
Peter,我给新任 CEO John Turnus 写了一封公开信。如果你在那里担任高管,关于创新你会说什么?因为看起来你觉得他们没有以你希望看到的方式创新。如果你想给他们一些指导,你会说什么?
Peter, I have written an open letter to the new CEO, John Turnus. If you were in senior management there, what would you say regarding innovation? Because it seems you feel that they are not innovating in the way you would like to see them do.
What would you say if you wanted to give them some guidance?
我会说,你们是一家大公司,当然,以这样的规模和这样的市场份额,你们非常谨慎。你们对做任何渐进式变化之外的事情都非常谨慎,但我会挑战他们,让他们把“更具创新性”作为座右铭。
Well, I'll say, you're a big company, and of course you're very careful with this size and this market share. You are very cautious about doing anything beyond gradual changes, but I would challenge them to adopt the motto of being more innovative .
例如,为听障人士设计的助听器;我与听力不佳的人有大量接触,他们使用助听器的体验非常糟糕。Apple 处于理想位置,可以开发一种创新且全新的技术来改进现有的助听技术,我相信它在这个领域不会遇到竞争。
他们可以利用人工智能,那将真正让他们回到我们都希望看到的创新之路上。但就目前状态而言,它的股票是作为成长型公司在交易,市盈率却高于标普 500,我想知道,如果它不能推出某种能改变我们行为方式的惊艳新技术,这还能维持多久。
我的意思是,这曾是 Apple 的本性,但现在我认为这令人失望,正如我所说,只是对现有方案的改进。
For example, hearing aids for the hearing impaired; I have extensive experience with people who are hard of hearing and their experience with hearing aids has been terrible. Apple is ideally positioned to develop an innovative and entirely new technology to improve current hearing technology, and I believe it will face no competition in this area.
They can use artificial intelligence, and that will truly put them back on the path of innovation that we all hope to see them on. But in its current state, you know, its stock is trading as a growth company, but with a price-to-earnings ratio higher than the S&P 500 , and I wonder how long it can maintain that if it doesn't deliver some new kind of amazing technology that will change the way we behave.
I mean , that was Apple's nature in the past, but now I think it's disappointing, as I said, just improvements to existing plans.
我很欣赏这一点,我在这里没有先入为主的看法。我听说过这种说法,而且听着,我拥有第一代“AirPods”耳机。我听说 AirPods Pro 2 和 Pro 3 确实具备一定的助听功能。
现在,我不知道这能到什么程度。我听说它是有帮助的,比如,如果你患有轻度到中度听力损失。
Well, I appreciate that point and I have no preconceived notions here. I've heard this, and listen, I own the first generation of " AirPods" headphones. I've heard that the AirPods Pro 2 and Pro 3 do have certain hearing-aid capabilities.
Now, I don't know how far that goes. I've heard that it's helpful, you know, if you suffer, for example, from mild to moderate hearing loss.
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