$AAPL · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-06
Apple 无需在 AI 上做到出类拔萃也能保持盈利,其在 AI 上的轻投入契合硬件与服务模式。尽管有创纪录的假日销售,但受内存芯片与 Siri 改版成本以及 iPad、可穿戴设备和大中华区表现疲软拖累,利润未必提升。说话者看好其长期盈利能力,认为现金流与避险需求支撑其高估值。
逐段跳播
好,让我们为一只非常令人兴奋的股票——Apple——铺平道路,对吧?好,我得谈谈另一家刚刚公布财报的大型科技公司。我第一个承认,任何关注……或持有 Apple 的人都知道这一点。
我的意思是,这不是一家直接从其 AI 服务中获利的公司。事实上,人工智能的兴起正在推动其设备和服务收入逐步增长。因此,很明显,Apple 不对 AI 功能收费,而是利用它们来加速其许多硬件升级。
例如,iPhone 18 系列和搭载 AI 的 Mac(如 Mac Mini 和 Mac Studio)需求强劲。这帮助 Apple 实现了创纪录的财年。当用户通过 iOS 订阅 ChatGPT 或其他第三方生成式 AI 应用时,它还能从 App Store 获得可观的费用。
okay, let's pave the way for a very exciting stock, Apple, right? Okay, I have to talk about another big technology company that just announced its earnings. And I'll be the first to admit it, and anyone who follows...or owns Apple knows that.
I mean, this isn't a company that makes direct profits from its AI services. In fact, the rise of artificial intelligence is driving gradual gains in the revenue of its devices and services.
Therefore, it is clear that Apple does not charge for AI features, but rather leverages them to accelerate many of its hardware upgrades. For example, there was strong demand for the iPhone 18 series and AI-powered Macs such as the Mac Mini and Mac Studio.
This helped Apple achieve a record financial year. It also receives substantial fees from the App Store when users subscribe to third-party generative AI applications such as Chat GPT or other apps via iOS.
所以,当用户订阅外部生成式 AI 应用时,它会收取这些应用商店费用。据估计,这每年超过十亿美元。这才是他们看重的。然后,他们当然充当着超过 25 亿台活跃设备的主要分发门户。因此,他们能够与第三方 AI 模型(如 Gemini)合作或引导用户使用,同时从高利润率的服务中产生收入。
这值得注意,因为尽管 Apple 的大部分收入和利润来自硬件部门,iPhone 仍是 Apple 有史以来最畅销的产品,但其服务部门增长最快。它正从这些二阶和三阶 AI 推动因素中获得逐步增长。
这是值得注意的一点,如果你关注 Apple,可能并不明显。
So, it receives these app store fees when a user subscribes to an external generative AI application. Estimates suggest it exceeds one billion dollars annually. That's what matters to them.
Then they act as a major distribution gateway, of course, for more than two and a half billion active devices. Therefore, they are able to partner with or direct users to third-party AI models, such as Gemini, while generating revenue from services with high profit margins.
This is noteworthy because, although most of Apple's revenue and profits come from the hardware sector, with the iPhone still being Apple's best-selling product of all time, its services sector is the fastest growing.
It is experiencing gradual gains from these second- and third-order AI enablers. This is something noteworthy that may not be obvious if you follow Apple.
当然,他们公布了 2026 财年及其第四季度的收入。第四季度收入总计约 1150 亿美元。这同比增长了 12%。超出了分析师的预期。这是 John Turnus 最近接替 Tim Cook 后的第一份财报。
每股收益超出了预期。iPhone 收入达到约 580 亿美元。公司在财年最后一个季度表现强劲,销售额同比增长 17%,超出预期。其服务业务创下约 320 亿美元的纪录新高,而 Mac 设备收入增长了 24%。
因此,Apple 在季度和财年层面都表现极为强劲。
Of course, they have announced their revenues for fiscal year 2026 and the fourth quarter of it. Fourth quarter revenues totaled approximately $115 billion. This represents a 12% year-on-year increase.
It exceeded analysts' estimates. This was John Turnus' first earnings report since recently taking over from Tim Cook. Your earnings per share exceeded expectations. iPhone revenues reached approximately $58 billion.
The company delivered a strong performance in the last quarter of its fiscal year, with sales rising 17% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. Its services recorded a record high of approximately $32 billion, while Mac device revenues increased by 24%.
Therefore, Apple's performance was extremely strong, both on a quarterly and fiscal year level.
但有一件事没有让投资者印象深刻,我们在 Apple 公布财报后不久就看到了反应,那就是其对假日季创纪录销售额的预期,同时它指出了内存芯片的高成本以及重新设计 Siri 人工智能系统所需的计算成本。
这很可能对那些创纪录销售额带来的预期利润产生负面影响,尤其是在公司正经历显著增长的这个时候。公司还表示,预计 iPad 和可穿戴设备的销售以及大中华区的业绩会较弱,而大中华区是 Apple 的关键市场。
But one thing that didn't impress investors, and which we saw a reaction to shortly after Apple announced its earnings, was its expectation of record sales during the holiday season, while it pointed to the high costs of memory chips and the computing costs needed to redesign the Siri artificial intelligence system.
This is likely to negatively impact the expected profits from those record sales, especially at this time of year when the company is experiencing significant growth. The company also stated that it expects weaker results in sales of iPads and wearable devices, and in Greater China, which is a key market for Apple.
有趣的是,与许多其他公司不同……与其他大型科技公司不同,Apple 不在人工智能上投入巨资。它不开发自己的人工智能模型,也不像许多其他公司那样在芯片或数据中心上大举投资。正如我提到的,其大部分增长是渐进的。
这个部门仍然主要依赖经典的 iPhone。Apple 在其历史上多次尝试重塑 iPhone 的魔力,但我们仍然看到,旗舰硬件产品一次又一次地吸引消费者。我认为,在许多方面,这个细分市场是 Mac 7 中最可预测的,或许是最可预测的细分市场之一。
所以,这很有趣。我并不一定认为 Apple 需要在人工智能方面表现出色才能保持盈利;它不追求这一点,也不以同样的程度关注它。这就是我们在其他大型科技公司身上看到的情况。他们不在人工智能上花费巨资。
Interestingly, unlike many other companies... unlike other major technology companies, Apple does not spend huge sums on artificial intelligence. It does not develop its own artificial intelligence models, nor does it invest heavily in chips or data centers as many other companies do.
As I mentioned, most of its growth is gradual. This is the sector that still relies primarily on the classic iPhone. Apple has tried to reinvent the magic of the iPhone many times throughout its history, but we still see that flagship hardware products are what attract consumers time and time again.
I believe, in many ways, that this segment is one of the most predictable, and perhaps the most predictable, segments of the Mac 7. So, it's interesting. I don't necessarily think Apple needs to excel in artificial intelligence to remain a profitable company; it doesn't strive for that, nor does it focus on it to the same extent.
This is what we see happening with other major technology companies. They do not spend huge sums of money on artificial intelligence.
但另一方面,我认为近几个月来我们对这只股票看到的一些冷淡,一些投资者可能在想:“Apple 对人工智能相对谨慎的做法是自律还是冒险?”在围绕科技公司的许多兴奋都归因于 AI 业务的时候,我倾向于认为 Apple 的做法符合其工作性质。
But on the other hand, and I think some of the apathy we've seen toward the stock in recent months, some investors may be wondering: "Is Apple's relatively cautious approach to artificial intelligence disciplined or risky?"
At a time when much of the excitement surrounding technology companies is attributed to the AI business, I tend to believe that Apple's approach suits its nature of work.
例如,Apple 的经济模式与 Alphabet 完全不同。Alphabet 在 AI 基础设施上投入巨资,当其核心业务的一部分显示出 AI 可能略微放缓其增长的最初迹象时,就会受到惩罚。
另一方面,Apple 在 AI 基础设施上的支出相对较少,但当其 AI 部署成本影响利润率时,就会受到惩罚。所以,我认为市场是波动的,正如我们所见。我今天谈到的这两家公司表现优异,我相信它们长期都能盈利,但方式非常不同。
Apple's economics are completely different from Alphabet's, for example. Alphabet spends huge sums on AI infrastructure, and is penalized when a segment of its core business shows the first signs that AI may be slowing its growth a little.
Apple, on the other hand, spends relatively small amounts on AI infrastructure, but is penalized when its AI deployment costs impact profit margins. So, I think the market is volatile, as we have seen.
These two companies I talked about today are performing excellently, and I believe they are both profitable in the long run, but in very different ways.
我认为 Apple 股票以高市盈率交易的原因在于,它们能产生大量现金流,并且目前被视为投资者的避风港。此外,谁知道呢,或许在市场大幅下跌的情况下,它们能够利用这些流动性收购两三家 AI 公司,从而重返激烈竞争,我认为,无需费太大力气。
I believe the reason Apple shares are trading at a high price-to-earnings ratio is that they generate significant cash flow and are considered a safe haven for investors at the moment.
In addition, who knows, perhaps in the event of a major market downturn, they will be able to use that liquidity to acquire two or three AI companies, and thus return to strong competition, I think, without having to exert much effort.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。