Adobe 值得买入；尽管存在 AI 相关担忧，但其基本面（营收/自由现金流）强劲，并受到高利润率和低估值倍数的支撑。
逐段跳播
那天我在领英上收到一条消息，发消息的人说他在一个大学投资社团里，所有人都认为Adobe是一家糟糕的公司，会跌到零，而他的看法恰恰相反。我说：“听着，Adobe仍然有可能跌到零。”
I received a message that day on LinkedIn from someone who said he was in a university investment group, and everyone thought Adobe was a bad company and would go to zero, while he thought the opposite.
I said, "Listen, Adobe is still capable of reaching zero."
各位，第五支箭是Adobe，Photoshop、Premiere以及设计师每天都在使用的创意设计工具的制造商。一旦你把业务建立在Adobe之上，你就会在未来很多年继续支付那笔月度订阅费。
转向替代方案的成本极其高昂。由于担心人工智能会将其彻底击垮，该股持续下跌。但看看这项业务真正的本质。
Guys, the fifth arrow is Adobe, the maker of Photoshop, Premiere, and the creative design tools that designers use every day. Once you build your business around Adobe, you'll continue to pay that monthly subscription for years to come.
The cost of switching to an alternative is enormous. The stock continues to suffer a decline due to concerns that artificial intelligence will wipe it out. But look at the true nature of the work.
各位，我想提醒大家，截至制作本视频之时，Adobe仍然与Cloud和ChatGPT有协议，将其产品整合进这些服务。所以，当我听到人工智能将取代Adobe时，我坐在那里发笑，说：“那么，Adobe将取代Adobe。”
我认为没有多少人意识到Cloud和ChatGPT与Adobe有协议。当我把这件事告诉别人时，他们的反应是：“哦，真的吗？”看来人们并不明白这一点。没关系。这正是给投资者带来机会的地方。
Guys, I want to remind everyone that, as of the time of preparing this video, Adobe still has an agreement with Cloud and ChatGPT to integrate its products into those services.
So, when I hear that artificial intelligence will replace Adobe, I sit and laugh, saying, "So, Adobe will replace Adobe." I don't think many people realize that Cloud and ChatGPT have an agreement with Adobe.
When I told people that, their response was: "Oh, really?" It seems that people do not understand that . That's okay. This is what gives the investor an opportunity.
那么，支持该股增长（上行预期）的论据是什么？创纪录的67.6亿美元营收，增长13%，以及创纪录的25.2亿美元现金流，他们还回购了近1000万股。在你买入的那些陷入困境的公司中，你是否看到了一致的模式？
So, what is the argument for the stock's growth ( upward expectations)? Record sales of 6.76 billion, up 13%, and record cash flow of 2.52 billion, and they also repurchased nearly 10 million shares.
Do you see a consistent pattern in the struggling companies you have bought?
那么，支持股价下跌（下行预期）的论据是什么？嗯，由于担心将免费用户转化为付费订阅用户的问题，该股在财报公布后仍在下跌。此外，一位新任CEO，Anil Chakravarthy——希望我把这个名字念对了——将于12月1日接任，而且高管团队已经发生了许多变动。
各位，这是一家人们说正在走向消亡的公司。各位，这是一家人们说正在走向消亡的公司。
So, what is the argument for a stock price decline (downward expectations) ? Well, the stock is still falling after the earnings announcement due to concerns about converting free users into paid subscribers.
Also, a new CEO, Anil Chakravarthy—I hope I pronounced the name correctly—will take over on December 1, and there have been many changes in the executive team. Guys, this is a company that people are saying is on its way out .
Guys, this is a company that people are saying is on its way out.
让我先给你们看看他们的营收。这是我们的营收图表。这是人工智能开始迅速普及的时候。好。我们接着看季度表现。这是人工智能开始迅速普及的时候。他继续全力推进。这些是实际产生的营收。嗯，也许营收不是问题。
自由现金流很可能才是核心所在。这是他们的自由现金流。这是他们的季度自由现金流。有一段时间，似乎在人工智能之后它正在流失，但它已经强劲回归。为什么？我喜欢的东西。高资本回报率。毛利率90%。
他们每收入一美元，其中90美分就是利润。看看这个净利润率。他们增长不多，因为他们花很多钱来维持自己的业务，而我喜欢他们这一点。他们会继续积极进取。人工智能这个话题已经持续了3年多，然而
Let me first show you their revenues. This is our revenue chart . This is when artificial intelligence began to spread rapidly. Good. Let's move on to quarterly performance . This is when artificial intelligence began to spread rapidly.
He continues to advance with full force. These are the actual revenues that are generated. Well, perhaps revenue isn't the problem. Free cash flow is probably at the heart of the matter.
This is their free cash flow. This is their quarterly free cash flow. For a while, it seemed as though it was slipping away after artificial intelligence , but it has come back strong.
Why ? Things I love. High returns on capital. Gross profit margin 90%. For every dollar they bring in, 90 cents of it is profit. Look at this net profit margin . They don't grow much because they spend a lot of money to maintain their businesses, and I like that about them .
They will continue to be aggressive. The topic of artificial intelligence has been ongoing for more than 3 years, yet
有一段时间，似乎在人工智能之后它正在流失，但它已经强劲回归。他们增长不多，因为他们花很多钱来维持自己的业务，而我喜欢他们这一点。
For a while, it seemed as though it was slipping away after artificial intelligence, but it has come back strong. They don't grow much because they spend a lot of money to maintain their businesses, and I like that about them.
人工智能这个话题已经持续了3年多，然而他们过去三年的营收增长率是每年11%。当我在2025年1月作为我的比赛的一部分首次买入它时，价格是每股425美元。现在价格是237，下跌了45%。
The topic of artificial intelligence has been ongoing for more than 3 years, yet their revenue growth rate over the past three years is 11% annually. When I first bought it as part of my contest in January 2025, the price was $425 per share. The price is now 237, down 45%.
同一家公司，但实际上比它以前更好。股票回购。营收增长、利润增长、自由现金流增长，债务非常低。103亿美元的自由现金流，对比72亿美元的净利润。他们以自由现金流的九倍出售。难以置信。
The same company, but actually a better company than it was before. Share buyback. Revenue growth, profit growth, free cash flow growth, very low debt. 10.3 billion in free cash flow versus 7.2 billion in net income.
They are selling at nine times their free cash flow. Unbelievable.
预计未来四年盈利将从每股24美元增长到每股35美元。那么这家垂死公司的营收呢？增长9%、9%、9%和8.5%。
Earnings are expected to grow from $24 per share to $35 per share over the next four years. And what about the revenues of this dying company? Growth of 9%, 9%, 9%, and 8.5%.
但如果人工智能在过去三四年里真的是大事，而他们的营收仍在上升，那这是不是一个指标？我们并没有看到营收像这样下滑。我们仍然看到营收呈现这样的趋势。这是否表明这家公司因为人工智能而正在消亡？
But if artificial intelligence has really been the big thing over the past three or four years and their revenues are still rising, is that an indicator? We don't see revenues declining like this.
We still see revenues trending this way. Is this an indication that the company is dying because of artificial intelligence?
我把营收增长设定为4%、7%和10%。我设定的自由现金流更高。他们给出的是35、38和41。请记住，他们在过去十年里已经实现了38以上。因此，即使在我的中间假设中，我也是保守的。
I set 4, 7 and 10% for revenue growth. I set the free cash flow, which is higher. They put 35, 38 and 41. Keep in mind that they have achieved above 38 over the past ten years.
Therefore, I am conservative even in my middle assumptions.
他们的资本回报率持续改善。他们只被给予了相对于市场很小的溢价。16、19和22。当然，还有我的9.5%回报率。
Their return on capital continues to improve. They were only given a slight premium over the market. 16, 19 and 22. And of course, my 9.5 percent return.
股价目前是 237。基于自由现金流倍数，我给出的低价是 360，最高是 830，平均是 550。即便按利润来算——利润总是更低——我给出的区间是 250 到 565，平均 376。
The stock price is currently 237. I have a low price of 360 based on the free cash flow multiple, a maximum of 830, and an average of 550. Even in terms of profits, which are always lower, I have a range of 250 to 565 with 376 on average.
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。