尽管存在AI颠覆担忧，ADBE仍值得买入：股价较峰值下跌三分之二，今年累计下跌32%，此前免费产品提供使预计经常性收入减少约5亿美元；但营收达到67.6亿美元，增长13%，其中AI收入超过6.5亿美元，且当前市盈率接近预期盈利的九倍。
逐段跳播
接下来看第二只股票，Adobe（股票代码：ADBE），录制这段视频时股价约为238美元。2021年底，其股价曾接近700美元。作为Photoshop、Premiere和Acrobat软件开发商的Adobe，股价已较峰值下跌约三分之二，仅今年就下跌了32%。
Now, let's move on to the second stock, Adobe ( stock symbol: ADBE), which was priced at around $238 at the time of recording this video. In late 2021, the stock price was close to $700.
Shares of Adobe, the developer of Photoshop, Premiere and Acrobat software, have fallen by about two-thirds from their peak, and are down 32% this year alone.
原因是什么？首先是恐惧。市场认为，用于照片和视频的AI工具会让用户不再需要向Adobe付费。然后今年，Adobe加剧了这轮下跌。6月，公司决定将更多产品免费提供以吸引新用户，并推迟了原定的涨价计划。
公司预计经常性收入因此损失约5亿美元，首席财务官也辞职了。股价在6月底跌至约193美元。随后在9月3日，公司宣布将于12月任命新CEO，次日股价下跌约7%。
What is the reason? First, fear. The market believed that AI tools for photos and videos would eliminate the need for users to pay Adobe fees. Then this year , Adobe intensified this decline.
In June, the company decided to offer more of its products for free to attract new users, and postponed planned price increases. The company suffered an estimated loss of about $500 million in its projected recurring revenue, and its chief financial officer resigned .
The stock price fell to around $193 in late June. Then on September 3, the company announced the appointment of a new CEO in December, and the stock price fell by about 7% the following day.
但来看看公司的实际业绩。上一季度，Adobe实现了创纪录的67.6亿美元营收，增长13%。其经常性收入总额为275亿美元。AI驱动产品的收入超过6.5亿美元，年增长超过150%。
有报道显示，其月活跃用户超过10亿，公司单季度实现了创纪录的25.2亿美元经营性现金流。
But let's look at the company's actual performance. In the last quarter, Adobe achieved record revenues of $6.76 billion, an increase of 13%. Its total recurring revenue is $27.5 billion .
Revenue from its AI- powered products exceeded $650 million, with annual growth exceeding 150%. Reports indicate that there are more than one billion monthly active users, and the company achieved a record operating cash flow of $2.52 billion in a single quarter.
我个人喜欢的一点是，Adobe正用这些现金流回购股票。他们的股份数量仅一年就减少了约6%，而且回购计划中还剩约245亿美元。这大致相当于公司当前市值的三分之一。
What I personally like is that Adobe is using this cash flow to buy back its shares. Their share count has fallen by about 6% in just one year, and they still have about $24.5 billion left in their share buyback plan .
This is roughly equivalent to a quarter of the company's value at its current price.
同样值得注意的是其估值，目前接近预期盈利的九倍，市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）约为0.64。即便按过去盈利计算，其股价对应的市盈率也只是过去十年典型市盈率的一小部分。
Also noteworthy is their valuation, which is nearly nine times the expected earnings, with a price- to-growth ratio (PEG) of approximately 0.64. Even based on past earnings, their shares are trading at a fraction of the typical earnings multiple over the past ten years.
Morning Star甚至将Adobe的评级列为其覆盖的企业软件公司中最低之一。
Morning Star even ranked Adobe's rating as one of the lowest in its coverage of enterprise software.
像我在这段视频里解释的那样，用层级来理解。金字塔的底层由表现良好、价格便宜的公司股票构成，比如CI和ADBE。
Think of it in terms of levels, as I explained in this video. The base of the pyramid consists of shares of well-performing, inexpensive companies, such as CI and ADBE.
看看Adobe今年的走势。股价在6月触及约193美元的低点，随后到8月底上涨约50%，之后又下跌约20%。
Look at Adobe this year. The stock price hit a low of around $193 in June, then rose by about 50% by the end of August, before falling by approximately 20% .