$ADBE · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-02
Adobe 股价约 250 美元，与说话者估算的合理价值基本一致。他认为，市场对 AI 导致客户流失的担忧忽视了企业整体迁移出 Adobe 环境的高昂成本，因此竞争带来的冲击会小于市场预期。他持有该股，并愿意在当前价位加仓。
逐段跳播
最后但同样重要的是Adobe，它今年早些时候陷入了SAS软件危机，但此后股价恢复得很好。我计算出的Adobe合理价值与当前250美元的市场价格相符。Adobe股票今天能以这个折价买到，原因在于其他公司在人工智能方面的发展，以及人们担心其客户会转向使用人工智能、价格低得多的实体。
然而，这忽略了让整个企业环境脱离他们已经习惯使用的Adobe产品和服务的高昂成本。这当然会损害公司，竞争总是如此，但在我看来，损害程度没有市场参与者认为的那么大。我的投资组合中持有Adobe股票，如果价格维持在当前水平，我有兴趣加仓。
Last but not least, Adobe, which was stuck in the SAS software crisis earlier this year, but its stock price has recovered well since then. I have calculated a fair value for Adobe that is in line with the current market price of $250.
The reason Adobe stock can be obtained at this discount today is due to developments in artificial intelligence at other companies, and the concern that its customers will switch to an entity that uses artificial intelligence at a much lower price.
However, this ignores the high cost of moving the entire corporate environment away from the Adobe products and services they have become accustomed to using. This will certainly harm the company, as competition always does, but not to the extent that market participants appreciate, in my opinion.
I own Adobe shares in my portfolio and am interested in adding more if prices remain at their current levels.
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。