$ADBE · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-04
ADBE 是买入机会，按其估算至少被低估 40%：DCF 合理价值 360 美元，而市价为 251 美元；9.1 倍远期市盈率仅为两年前水平的三分之一，也是标普 500 平均水平的三分之一。营收仍保持两位数增长，免费服务用户增长 70% 至超过 1 亿，但 AI 对该业务构成威胁；风险很高，但他看好这里的风险回报比。
逐段跳播
Adobe 为应对人工智能日益增长的风险以及同领域其他公司的竞争所采取的举措之一，是转向“免费增值”商业模式。这一模式已经开始取得初步而切实的成效。
One of the steps Adobe has taken to counter the growing risks of artificial intelligence and competition from other companies in its field is to shift towards a "freemium" business model .
This model has already begun to achieve early and tangible successes.
具体来看，Adobe 免费服务的月活跃用户数已超过1亿，较去年同期增长70%。这正是投资者希望从 Adobe 看到的增长率，以缓解人们对人工智能威胁日益加剧的一些担忧。
To put things in perspective, the number of active monthly users of Adobe's free services has exceeded 100 million , an increase of 70% compared to the same period last year. These are the growth rates that investors would like to see from Adobe to allay some concerns about the growing threat of artificial intelligence.
但这是否让 Adobe 股票成为一个买入机会，还是说投资者应该因为人工智能带来的威胁而回避它？有一个因素值得考虑，那就是跟踪该公司的华尔街分析师对 Adobe 每股收益的预期。这些分析师对 Adobe 变得更加乐观了。
But does this make Adobe stock a buying opportunity, or should investors avoid it because of the threats posed by artificial intelligence? Well, one factor to consider is Adobe's earnings per share estimates from Wall Street analysts who follow the company.
These analysts have become more optimistic about Adobe.
今年早些时候，他们预计 Adobe 的每股收益在未来几年将增长约13%。这些预期已被上调至约14%。因此，这个数字本身并不是最重要的。与年初相比，这只是92个基点的提升。但让我感到鼓舞的是整体趋势。
趋势并不是向下的。这正是我希望从 Adobe 看到的，因为我们必须记住，这只股票目前的估值并不高。
Earlier this year, they were estimating Adobe's earnings per share to grow by about 13% over the next few years. These estimates have been revised upwards to approximately 14%.
Therefore, the number itself is not the most important thing. That's just a 92 basis point increase compared to the start of the year. But what encouraged me was the general trend.
The trend was not downward. This is what I would like to see from Adobe, because we must remember that this stock is not trading at a high valuation.
事实上，情况恰恰相反。这只股票正以非常大的折价交易。该股的估值已经反映了未来业务放缓和利润放缓的预期，也反映了公司正慢慢滑入增长极慢甚至零增长的类别。
In fact, it's quite the opposite. This stock is trading at a very large discount. The stock's valuation anticipates a slowdown in business and a slowdown in profits in the future.
And that the company slowly transitions into the category of very slow growth or no growth.
我这么说的原因是看它的估值。按远期市盈率计算，Adobe 股票目前的市盈率仅为9.1。这相当于该股两年前估值的三分之一，也相当于标普500指数平均股价水平的三分之一。
The reason I say that is to look at the rating. Based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio, Adobe stock is trading at only 9.1. This is equivalent to one-third of the valuation at which the stock was trading just two years ago.
This is equivalent to one-third of the average share price in the S&P 500 index.
然而，公司仍在实现两位数的营收增长。它仍然拥有强大的商业模式和非常稳固的客户基础。
However, the company continues to achieve double-digit revenue growth. It still has a strong business model with a very well-established customer base.
但当然，在我跟踪的所有公司中，它也是风险因素最大的公司之一。这是因为人工智能效能的不断提升正在威胁它的商业模式和客户基础。
But of course, it also has one of the biggest risk factors among all the companies I follow. This is because the increasing effectiveness of artificial intelligence threatens its business model and its customer base.
公司的一项竞争优势是客户转向其他替代方案的成本很高。其现有客户基础要转向其他提供类似服务、采用人工智能且成本可能更低的供应商，既困难又耗时。
Now , one of the company's competitive advantages is the high cost of customers switching to other alternatives. It is difficult and time-consuming for its existing customer base to switch to other providers of similar services that use artificial intelligence and perhaps at a lower cost.
今天，我还重新审视了我对 Adobe 的现金流折现模型。我把自己的估值略微上调，比上次评估该公司时更高。我得出的公允价值估计是每股360美元。
Today, I also reviewed my discounted cash flow model for Adobe. I adjusted my estimate to be slightly higher than it was the last time I evaluated the company. The fair value estimate I arrived at is $360 per share.
请记住，我得出这些计算的方式，是估算我认为公司从今天到非常遥远的未来将产生的自由现金流。然后，我用加权平均资本成本把所有那些现金流折现到现值，Adobe 的加权平均资本成本是13.14%。
我之所以要把所有这些现金流折现，是因为未来的钱对我来说不如今天口袋里的钱值钱。如果我今天口袋里有这笔钱，我可以把它放进一个非常安全的货币市场账户，能赚到4%。因此，我至少会按4%来折现未来的现金流。
此外，未来承诺的钱并不保证一定能进到我的口袋。可能发生很多事情，阻止那笔预期中的钱进入我的口袋。因此，除了货币的时间价值、机会成本等之外，还要加上一个风险因素。这样我就得出了加权平均资本成本。
Remember that the way I arrive at these calculations is by estimating the amount of free cash flow that I believe the company will generate from today and into the very distant future.
I then discount all those cash flows to the present using the weighted average cost of capital , which for Adobe is 13.14%. The reason I discount all those cash flows is that money in the future is worth less to me than the money in my pocket today.
If I had money in my pocket today, I could put it into a very secure money market account and it would earn me 4%. Therefore, I will discount future cash flows by at least 4%. Furthermore, the money promised in the future is not guaranteed to reach my pocket.
There are many things that could happen and prevent that expected money from reaching my pocket. Therefore, a risk factor is added in addition to the time value of money, opportunity cost , etc. And so I arrive at the weighted average cost of capital.
因此，按360美元计算，Adobe 的公允价值估计显著高于当前251美元的市场价格。按我的估算，至少被低估了40%。
Therefore, at $360, Adobe's fair value estimate is significantly higher than the current market price of $251. Undervalued by at least 40%, according to my estimates.
那么，回到这个问题：我是否认为 Adobe 股票仍然是一个买入机会？我认为是的。事实上，我把它列为目前你可以买入的最佳股票之一。当然，我要提醒大家，风险肯定很高，但我喜欢当前市场价格下的风险回报比。
So, to answer the question, do I think Adobe stock is still a buying opportunity? I think so. In fact, I ranked it as one of the best stocks you can buy right now. Of course, I remind everyone that the risks are definitely high, but I like the risk-to-reward ratio at current market prices.
观察点
这个频道对 $ADBE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。