$ALB

Albemarle 完全依赖锂价,而锂价正在下跌,会拖累股价。锂需求增速预计在15%至40%之间:若为15%,意味着股价还会再跌70%;若为40%,则意味着股价翻倍。供给过剩和新电池技术风险使其本质上成为对整个锂行业的一次普遍押注。

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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.发布 2026-10-25 · 1 段内容
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Albemarle 在过去十年里多次考察过锂业务。一切都取决于锂价。锂价正在下跌,你可以在这里看到这波下跌,这意味着一切都会随 Albemarle 一起下跌。关于锂的情况是这样的。

看这个。锂的需求增长预计在15%到40%之间。如果这个百分比是15%,股价还会再跌70%。如果这个比例是40%,股价会翻倍。谈到锂,这是需要理解的一点。股价走势图完美地展示了上涨、下跌和波动。

然后我看了看,发现锂的供应很多。四五年前他们手里有大量现金。那些采矿项目全都还在运营,如果供应出现过剩,情况就会很难看。也许今年冬天的某个时候,他们的关注点会是锂价是否进一步下跌,但这只是对整个板块的一般性押注。

更不用说新电池技术的技术风险之类的东西了。这是另一家值得重新审视的公司。

Albemarle has looked at lithium several times over the past decade. Everything depends on lithium prices. Lithium prices are falling , and you can see the drop here, which means everything will go down with Albemel.

The matter concerning lithium is as follows. this. Look at this. Demand growth for lithium is expected to range between 15% and 40%. If the percentage is 15%, the stock will fall by another 70%.

If the ratio is 40%, the stock will double. This is something that needs to be understood when it comes to lithium. The stock price chart perfectly illustrates the ups, downs, and fluctuations .

Then I looked and found that there was a lot of lithium. They had a lot of cash four or five years ago. All those mining projects are still in operation, and if there is a surplus in supply, it will look bad.

Perhaps sometime this winter their focus will be on whether lithium prices fall further, but it's just a general bet on the sector. Not to mention the technical risks of new battery technologies, and things like that . This is another company that deserves a review.

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