AMD 估值偏高，市场因其在 CPU／AI 加速器领域的地位而给予溢价，而非按大宗商品看待。
逐段跳播
因此，随着更多供应上线，如果我们开始看到平均售价下降，我认为AMD和Nvidia实际采购的HBM数量会增加。
And so as more supply comes online, if we start to see average selling prices go down, I think there will be an an increase of how much HBM that AMD and Nvidia actually purchase.
Jose，为什么这种担忧没有发生在Nvidia身上？为什么只发生在Micron或Dell身上？或者AMD，为什么只有Micron承受这种担忧？
Jose why why why doesn't that fear happen to Nvidia? Why is it only happening to Mike or Dell? like why or AMD why is it only in Micron that's getting that fear
如果存储价格下降，我会预期超微、Nvidia、AMD上涨，因为现在它们的物料清单成本已经大幅下降了。我是这么认为的。
I if memory pricing goes down that would be I I would I would expect super micro Nvidia AMD to go up because now their bill of materials has incre decreased dramatically I I think so.
所以我认为Micron将产生的净利润总额远高于人们目前的预期。这就是为什么UBS说他们将在未来，你知道，两年内回购大约40%的股份。
So I think the overall amount of net income that Micron is going to produce is so much higher than what people are currently anticipating. It's why UBS is saying they're going to buy back like 40% of their shares over the next, you know, two years.
在Tanner走之前，让我问你一个问题。这会在Tanner脑子里激起什么想法吗？AMD的市值紧随Micron之后。而AMD的自由现金流和每股收益与Micron相比基本为零。我是说，第一季度是35 3815。
如果全年就持平，每股收益就是15260。按10倍市盈率算，就是1526。我是说，你看看AMD和Micron的数字，它们的交易估值根本不该接近。
>> Well, let me ask you a question before Tanner goes. Is this going to feed something in Tanner's mind? AMD is right behind Micron with market cap. And AMD does basically no free cash flow and EPS compared to Micron.
I mean at 35 3815 in Q1. If that is just flatline for the year, it's 15260 for EPS. At a 10 multiple, that's 1526. I mean, you look at AMD's numbers in Micron, they shouldn't trade anywhere near each other.
Jose，为什么AMD应该值一万亿以上？我是说，我确实认为AMD的交易估值有点泡沫。但我要说，典型的半导体论点是，在CPU领域，参与者本来就寥寥无几，对吧？我是说，还有AI加速器和AI系统，理论上，对吧？
理论上，如果有人能大规模量产存储，AMD就会转向别人，对吧？而现在的情况并非如此，现在瓶颈就在这里。但我认为只是市场仍然停留在那种旧思维里，认为你只是个存储玩家，对吧？你就只是这样。
尽管有了HBM，这基本上已经完全改变了局面。我认为市场仍然沿用那种思维，会给一个我认为不像过去那样被视为大宗商品的公司更好的估值，如果那曾是一个论点的话。
>> Jose, why should AMD be a trillion over? >> I mean, I do think AMD is trading a little bit at a frothy valuation. Um, but I would say on a typical semiconductor argument is in the CPU space, there's only barely been a few players, right?
I mean, and AI accelerators and the AI system in theory, right? In theory, if someone goes out there and massproduces memory, um AMD would just go to somebody else, right? That's and I that's not what's happening right now where it's here in the constraint.
But I think it's just that the market is still stuck in that old way is that you're just a memory player, right? That's all you are. Even though with HBM it kind of has completely changed that around.
I think the market still goes with that and would give a better valuation on somebody who is I would say not consider a commodity as it kind of in the past if that was an argument.
无论我对AMD多么看涨，无论我可能对Broadcom这样的公司多么看涨，Nvidia就是那个最强者。
No matter how bullish I am in AMD no matter how um might be bullish on a company like Broadcom Nvidia is just the goat there.
所以是的，Nvidia有一些竞争对手，比如Broadcom和AMD，但从根本上说，如果Jose关于创新的看法是对的，如果Jose关于供应上线的看法是对的，Nvidia的利润率不应该受此影响，反而应该上升，因为他们可能在这些投入成本上花得更少。
So yeah you have some competitors to Nvidia with like Broadcom and AMD but like at its core if Jose's right about the innovation and Jose's right about supply coming online like Nvidia's margin shouldn't be affected by that if anything it should go up because they might have to spend less on those input costs.
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。