AMD 股价相对其内在价值已被高估，因股价已超出公允价值估计，评级下调至持有。
逐段跳播
9月3日，我将AMD股票评级上调至“买入”。此后，股价上涨了超过37%。这是我今年最成功的一次上调之一。但今天，我将AMD的股票评级下调至“持有”。
On September 3rd, I upgraded AMD stock to a "buy" rating. Since then, the price has risen by more than 37%. It was one of my best promotions this year. But today , I am downgrading AMD's stock rating to "hold".
关于AMD，我在2026年9月3日在这里更新了评级，给出“买入”评级。上个月，AMD股价上涨了超过37%。目前其交易价格已超过每股655美元。
Regarding AMD, I updated here on September 3, 2026 with a " Buy" rating. Last month, AMD's stock rose by more than 37%. It is now trading at over $655 per share.
我上调该股评级时，其价格约为500美元，或低于500美元。
When I upgraded the stock, it was priced at around 500 or less than 500.
自年初以来，AMD股价已上涨超过205%，而我正确预测了这波走势的大部分。当股价升破500美元时，我下调了其评级，并告知投资者涨幅过快，当时的基本面并不支持这一估值。
Since the beginning of the year, AMD stock has risen by more than 205%, and I correctly predicted most of this move . When the stock price rose above $500, I downgraded its rating and informed investors that the rise had been too rapid and that the fundamentals did not justify the valuation at that time.
因此，我一直将其归类为“持有”机会，直到9月股价跌至455美元附近，我才上调了评级。事实上，9月3日我将AMD股票评级上调至“买入”时，其交易价格约为452美元。
Therefore, I kept it classified as a "hold" opportunity until the stock price dropped in September to near the $455 level, which is when I upgraded it. In fact, on September 3, it was trading at around $452 when I upgraded AMD stock to " buy".
在此之前，今年早些时候，当股价暴跌至约180美元，或者说，抱歉，190美元时，我上调了其评级，并重申这是一个强劲的买入机会。
Prior to that, earlier in the year when the stock price collapsed to around $180 or should I say, sorry , $190, I upgraded it and reaffirmed that it was a strong buying opportunity.
因此，AMD股价的走势比我的估值预测准确得多。当我感到AMD股票被低估时，我制作了视频并将其上调为买入机会，股价随后积极反应并向上走高。
Therefore, AMD stock has traded much more accurately than my valuation estimates. When I felt that AMD stock was undervalued, I made a video and upgraded it to a buy opportunity, and the stock price reacted positively and moved upwards.
当我感到股价过高时，我制作了视频并将其评级下调至“持有”，此后该股表现下滑，价格下跌。所以，它的走势与我对它的判断准确一致，而这并不总是会发生，对吧？
When I felt that the stock price was too high, I made a video and lowered its rating to " hold," after which the stock's performance declined and its price dropped. So, he moved in line with my assessment of him accurately, which doesn't always happen, does it?
我并不是要在这里说我一直都能做到这一点，或者说我在这些判断上总是正确的，市场总是认同我的预测，股价也随之变动。事实上，情况恰恰相反。这种情况很少发生，正因如此我才特别想强调这一次的情况，因为在我看来，它的走势非常接近。
I am not here to say that I always do this , or that I am always right in these assessments, that the market agrees with my estimates, and that stock prices move accordingly . In fact, the opposite is true.
This rarely happens, and that is why I am keen to highlight this particular situation because it moved very closely, in my estimation.
当我认为情况被低估时，股价通常需要更长时间才能对我的观点作出反应。有时情况对我不利，因为我认为股票被低估，但它却继续下跌。
The stock price usually takes longer to react to my point of view when I believe the situation is undervalued . Sometimes the situation gets worse for me, as I believe the stock is undervalued, but it continues to fall.
因此，AMD这一次是非常独特的情况，我对评级的上调或下调与股价的走势相互呼应。它极其准确。那么，鉴于与AMD相关的预测如此准确，我今天看到了什么，会促使我下调该股评级，正如我在开头提到的？市场价现在远高于我对该股内在价值的估算。
Therefore, this was a very unique situation with AMD , where my upgrades or downgrades to the rating were mirrored by the movement of the stock price. It was extremely accurate.
So, given the accuracy of the estimates related to AMD, what do I see today that would lead me to lower the stock rating, as I mentioned in the introduction? Well, the market price is now much higher than my estimate of the intrinsic value of the stock.
我计算出AMD股票的合理价值为419美元，而当前市场价超过655美元。因此，相对于我的内在价值——这是我调整AMD股票评级时参照的基准数字——目前的高估程度支持下调评级。
I calculated a fair value of $419 for AMD stock, while the current market price exceeds $655. Therefore, the overvaluation compared to my intrinsic value—which is the baseline figure I look at when adjusting the rating of AMD stock—now supports a downgrade.
这就是为什么我在视频开头提到，今天我要把AMD的股票评级从“买入机会”下调为“持有”。当然，关于AMD有很多利好消息，我也能理解围绕该股的这种势头。
That's why I mentioned in the video introduction that today I'm going to downgrade AMD's stock rating to "hold" instead of " buy opportunity". Of course, there has been a lot of positive news about AMD, and I can understand the momentum surrounding the stock.
有关其最大客户之一Meta的头条新闻、代理式AI的普及，以及AMD在这一市场机会中的强势地位，都反映出该公司极佳的前景，我对此表示认同。
The headlines with one of its biggest customers, Meta, the proliferation of proxy AI, and AMD's strong position in that market opportunity all reflect excellent prospects for the company , and I agree.
我对这家公司有着非常强劲的增长预期。事实上，我估计其自由现金流将从今年的75亿美元增长到2030年的440亿美元。这意味着未来四年自由现金流将增长近六倍，这就是我对AMD的预期，并且在此之后还将继续增长。
I have very strong growth expectations for this company. In fact, I estimate that its free cash flow will grow from $7.5 billion this year to $44 billion by 2030. That's nearly a sixfold increase in free cash flow over the next four years, which is what I expect for AMD with continued growth beyond that.
因此，我对该公司的前景持乐观态度，但估值已经提前透支了。这种情况在AMD身上以前也发生过，因为它是人气最高的公司之一，也是吸引大量投资者关注的公司，投资者情绪非常乐观。
Therefore, I am optimistic about the company's prospects, but the valuation has been premature. This has happened before with AMD, given that it is one of the most popular companies, and one that attracts a lot of investor attention, and investor sentiment is very positive.
所以，正如我提到的，我在这里下调了该股的评级。我在2026年10月6日的表格中更新了这一点，将分类下调为“保留”。
So, as I mentioned, I am downgrading the stock rating here. I updated that in my spreadsheet on October 6, 2026, lowering the classification to "Retain".
由于我近期预测的准确性，我对AMD相关估算的信心正在增强。如你在这里所见，我的信心程度各不相同。我并不总是有把握。我尽量不高估自己的能力，我的信心评级从低到中再到高不等。
My confidence in my estimates regarding AMD is increasing due to the recent accuracy in my predictions. As you can see here, I have varying degrees of confidence. I'm not always sure.
I try not to overestimate my abilities, and I have a confidence rating that ranges from low to medium to high.
此前我对AMD估值的信心较低，但鉴于近期的表现，我已将该估值的信心提升至中等水平，认为在当前价格下这看起来并不是一个好的买入机会。
My confidence in my valuations of AMD was previously low, but given recent performance, I've raised that valuation to a moderate level of confidence that this doesn't look like a good buying opportunity at these prices.
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。