AMD 46 倍的市盈率反映了巨大的增长预期和重大机会;只有当数据中心增长超过 100% 成为确定之事时,这一估值倍数才会显得很低,但这并无保证。若数据中心销售额增长达到 100%,AMD 就值得买入。AMD 处于上升趋势,560 的回调被向上的 50 日均线守住。
逐段跳播
我们来看看你这里最后提到的名字,AMD。对AMD的预期非常高。距离他们的财报还有大约一个月,但总体而言,他们今天落后于科技板块。Joe,你对AMD有什么看法?
Let's take a look at the last name you have here, AMD. I mean, expectations are very high for AMD. We still have about a month until their earnings report, but overall, they are lagging behind the technology sector today. What are your thoughts on AMD, Joe?
因为AMD的机会看起来非常巨大。他们宣布了更多与Helios机架相关的交易,以及更多的合作与伙伴关系,但每次我读到一条新闻,似乎这个标的的预期天花板就会再抬高一点。是的,你说的是很高的预期天花板。
我们来看什么?市盈率是46。所以,投资者为这个标的付出了高昂的代价,我认为这是因为它所提供的潜力。现在,他们有充足的空间去追赶Nvidia,而且他们不一定非要在模型训练领域与Nvidia竞争。
不过,在运行智能体方面,他们是可以竞争的。我相信这就是他们推出“Helios”机架的目标,我认为这将是实现盈利的途径。Anthropic和OpenAI这样的公司就是这样开始从人工智能中赚到大钱的。
我认为我们会看到越来越多这样的情况,这对AMD来说是一个令人兴奋的前景,我猜想他们正通过“Helios”机架打出自己的名号,说:“你好,我们拥有最适合这项工作的芯片。”“我们拥有进入这个领域最具成本效益的方式。”
我认为他们对此有很强的理由,我把它视为他们一个令人兴奋的前景。尽管估值很高,但他们的预期增长非常高。因此,我认为这一评估反映了他们的预期。不过,仅仅因为他们预期能实现这样的增长,并不一定意味着他们会自动实现,这就是问题的转折所在。
如果我能确定他们会实现超过100%的数据中心增长,我会说他们的评级非常低。但是,如果他们真的实现了数据中心销售100%的增长,那么我认为存在一个潜在的买入机会。
Because the opportunity looks enormous for AMD. I mean, they announce more deals with Helios shelves and more collaborations and partnerships, but every time I read a news item, it seems like the ceiling of expectations rises a little for this name.
Yes, you are talking about a high ceiling of expectations. What are we looking at? The price-to-earnings ratio is 46. So, investors are paying large sums for this name, and I think that's because of the potential it offers.
Now, they have plenty of room to catch up with Nvidia, and they don't necessarily have to compete with Nvidia in the area of model training. However, they can compete when it comes to running agents.
I believe that is their goal with the "Helios" shelf, and I think that this will be the way to achieve profitability. This is how companies like Anthropic and OpenAI will start making a lot of money from artificial intelligence.
I think we're going to see more and more of this, which is an exciting prospect for AMD, and I suspect they're making their mark with the "Helios" shelf, saying, "Hello, we've got the best chip for the job."
"We have the most cost-effective way to enter this field." I think they have a strong case for that, and I see it as an exciting prospect for them. Although the valuation is high, their expected growth is very high.
Therefore, I believe the assessment reflects their expectations. Now, just because they expect to achieve this growth does not necessarily mean that they will achieve it automatically, and that is the twist in the matter.
If I were certain that they would achieve data center growth of more than 100%, I would say that their rating is very low. But, if they actually achieve 100% growth in data center sales, then I think there is a potential buying opportunity.
好的,Ben。那我们来看看这里的图表。我们看到这个标的在春季出现了一波爆发。今年夏天大部分时间走势一直横盘。似乎在初秋时它想开启新一轮上涨,但你在技术分析上看到了什么?
Okay, Ben. So, let's take a look at the graph here. I mean, we saw an explosion in this name during the spring. Things have been moving in a sideways direction for much of this summer.
It seemed like he wanted to start a new upward movement at the beginning of autumn, but what do you see in the technical analysis?
嗯,你说得对,Marlowe。这只股票今年大部分时间都在200多美元的区间。现在,我们处在500多到600多的区间,显然这是一个大的上升趋势,对于持有一段时间的投资者来说,他们已经获得了很大的收益。
因此,在这些价位上可能会有一些获利了结,同时仍保持上行的潜力,这或许可以解释我们在560水平看到的轻微反弹。不过,这只股票可能是投资者撤出资金、转投其他龙头股的对象之一,他们在等待催化剂推动价格上涨。
财报即将公布,但我认为回落至560水平仍受到向上倾斜的50日移动均线的支撑。动能略有放缓,但并没有明显转为下行,因为价格在这里找到了一个近乎持平的底部。因此,这可能只是上升趋势中的一次小幅获利了结反弹。
如果我们抛开所有关于基本面故事的讨论,Marley。
Well, you're right, Marlowe. I mean, this stock spent a large part of the year in the mid-200s range. Now, we're in the mid-500s to 600s range, and obviously that's a big uptrend, and for investors who held it for a while, they've made big gains.
Therefore, there may be some profit-taking at these levels, while maintaining the potential for upward movement, which may explain the slight rebound we are seeing at the 560 level.
However, this stock may be one of those from which investors withdraw their money to switch to other leading stocks, waiting for a catalyst to push the price upwards. Earnings results are on the horizon, but I believe the pullback to the 560 level is still supported by an upward 50-day moving average.
The momentum slows down slightly, but it does not trend noticeably downwards as the price finds a nearly even bottom here. Therefore, this may just be a minor profit-taking bounce within an upward trend.
If we disregard all this talk about the basic story, Marley.
我们关注的是11月3日AMD的财报公布,但正如我们所知,在那之前可能会有一些公告,成为推动价格朝任一方向变动的催化剂。
Well, we are looking at November 3rd for AMD's earnings announcement, but as we know, there may be announcements before that date that act as a catalyst in either direction.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 14 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。