$AMD · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-31
AMD 是说话者近期的首选，也是长期持有标的：营收高度集中于数据中心，使其受消费端下行的影响小于 Intel，而数据中心需求增长应会推动营收上升。CPU 增速指引为 2026 年下半年超过 80%、2027 年超过 70%，台积电供应紧张但 2027 年将改善。AMD 持续提升 x86 份额，得益于 Meta 和 Oracle 的 EPYC 订单。近期业绩可能令人失望、股价可能下跌，但他仍是长期股东。
逐段跳播
AMD 的股价下跌了约11%，Qualcomm 下跌超过11%，ARM 下跌约10%。
AMD's stock fell by about 11%, Qualcomm's by more than 11%, and ARM's by about 10%.
我认为，对于能够从中受益的人来说，这里最大的机会是 AMD。
I believe the biggest opportunity here for those who can benefit is AMD.
这让我想谈谈 AMD。现在看 AMD，如果我们看他们最新的第二季度报告，数据中心收入达到167亿美元。客户部门收入为31亿美元。然后他们还有其他收入来源，比如 Xilinx 产品。
他们赚了一点，我忘了另一个数字，但收入略高于约110亿到120亿美元。但我们可以看到，很大一部分来自数据中心方面，较小一部分来自消费端。
This leads me to talk about AMD. Now, for AMD, if we look at their latest second-quarter report, data center revenues reached $16.7 billion. Customer sector revenues amounted to 3.1 billion.
Then they have other revenue streams such as Xilinx products. They made a little bit, I forgot the other figure, but it was a little more than about $11 to $12 billion in revenue.
But we can see that a large part comes from the data center side. And a smaller portion comes from the consumer side.
这很重要，因为你现在看到的是与 Intel 所发生情况相反的效果，让我们稍微回顾一下数字：对 Intel 来说，数据中心收入达到7.3。客户部门收入达到8.1。所以，客户部门表现超过了它。
因此，即使 AMD 在消费市场遭受打击，它也不会面临 Intel 所面临的同样巨大压力。如果数据中心市场更大，并且以同样的速度增长，你就会看到收入获得更大的提振。
This is important because you are now witnessing the opposite effect of what is happening with Intel, and let's go back a little to the numbers; For Intel, data center revenues reached 7.3.
Customer segment revenues reached 8.1. So, the customer segment has outperformed it. So, even if AMD were to suffer a hit in the consumer market, it would not face the same immense pressures that Intel did.
If the data center market is larger and growing at the same rate, you will see a larger boost to revenues.
因此，拆解收入很重要，我真心相信 AMD 将大大受益。上个季度，他们给了我们非常强劲的数字，不是吗？他们告诉我们，他们预计2026年下半年 CPU 市场的收入增长将超过80%。
对于整个2027年，他们预计增长超过70%，并且他们在9月与 Citi 的活动上确认了这些数字。我想是在9月8日。是的，9月8日。
Therefore, breaking down the revenue is important, and I truly believe that AMD will benefit greatly. In the last quarter, they gave us really strong numbers, didn't they? They told us they expect revenue growth of more than 80% in the CPU market in the second half of 2026.
For the whole of 2027, they expect growth of more than 70%, and they confirmed these figures at their September event with Citi. I think it was on September 8th. Yes, September 8th.
因此，如果 Intel 与有能力这样做的合作伙伴合作，那么 Intel 无法提供服务器处理器的损失可能会成为 AMD 的收益。而且我真心相信他们正在与有能力这样做的合作伙伴合作。
Therefore, Intel's loss in not being able to provide server processors could be a gain for AMD if it works with partners who are able to do so. And I truly believe they are working with partners capable of doing so.
同时，他们在一个月、两个月或三个月前给我们的这些数字，以及他们在一两个月前确认的这些数字，我认为管理层只有在对他们拥有的分配有信心时才会分享。我认为 Lisa Su 在提供任何形式的指引时都是一位非常保守的女性。
市场有时因此讨厌这一点，但对我来说，这意味着她告诉我们的数字是真实的数字，它们至少是我们预期的真实增长值。
At the same time, these figures that they gave us a month, two, or three ago, and that they confirmed a month or two ago, are figures that I believe management would only share if they were confident in the allocations they have.
I think Lisa Su is a very reserved woman when it comes to offering any form of guidance. The market sometimes hates it for that, but for me, it means that the numbers she told us are real numbers, and they are real growth values at the very least what we expect.
Lisa Su 告诉我们，服务器处理器供应链目前紧张，但她预计2027年情况会比2026年有所改善。现在，我们听到 AMD 正在做的另一件事是，在芯片订单之外进行投资，对吧？他们不只是下芯片订单。
他们还在增加先进封装的供应。他们正在努力改善和协助他们的制造合作伙伴。他们提到的一件事是，他们帮助联合签署或购买设备，以转移给他们的制造合作伙伴，从而增加他们能够获得的生产，对吧？
他们为服务器处理器做了很多这样的事，特别是基于2nm技术的“Venice”，但 AMD 给了我们一个计划，向我们保证我们不会在任何方面被落下。
Lisa Su told us that the server processor supply chain is currently tight, but she expects things to improve in 2027 compared to 2026. Now, another thing we hear AMD is doing is investing beyond chip orders, right?
They don't just place orders for chips. They are also increasing their supply of advanced packaging. They are working to improve and assist their manufacturing partners. One of the things they mentioned is that they help with joint signing or purchasing equipment to transfer to their manufacturing partners to increase the production they can obtain, right?
They do this a lot for their server processors, specifically the "Venice" which is based on 2nm technology, but AMD is giving us a plan that assures us that we will not be left behind in any way.
除此之外，产能仍然低于 AMD 的期望，这就是短缺问题的所在。我们未来可能会听到一些关于平均售价大幅上涨的讨论，就像我们在内存领域看到的那样，但我不认为 Lisa Su 会在这条路上走得太远。
Apart from that, production capacity is still less than AMD aspires to, and this is where the problem lies in the shortage. We may hear some discussions in the future about average selling prices rising significantly, as we have seen in the memory sector, but I don't think Lisa Su will go too far down that path.
在这里我们可以看到 AMD 目前所有我们感兴趣的服务器处理器，我认为甚至7nm的那些也完全依赖 TSMC 的生产。
Here we can see all of AMD's server processors that are of interest to us right now, and I think even the 7nm ones are entirely dependent on TSMC's production.
即将推出的产品“Venice”和“Verona”将属于 TSMC 的2nm生产线。同样，其他类型如基于4nm和3nm的“Taurin”，也是 TSMC 正在努力提高产能的生产线。
The upcoming products, "Venice" and "Verona," will be part of TSMC's 2nm production line. Again, other types such as "Taurin," which are based on 4nm and 3nm, are also manufacturing lines that TSMC is working to improve its production capacity.
与 TSMC 合作的不利之处在于，你要与许多其他参与者共享一些供应链线路，对吧？像 Nvidia、Broadcom 这样的公司，以及所有正在为 CPU 和 GPU 构建供应线路的公司。
所以，AMD 不可能全占，但如果我现在必须选择一个参与者，我认为 AMD 与 TSMC 的合作比 Intel 拥有自己的生产线、然后不幸未能实现预期的成功或执行是更大的优势。
The downside here in working with TSMC is that you share some supply chain lines with a lot of other players, right? Companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and all those who are working on building supply lines for CPUs and GPUs.
So, AMD can't have it all, but if I had to choose a player right now, I think AMD's partnership with TSMC is a bigger advantage than Intel having its own manufacturing line and then unfortunately failing to achieve the success or execution that was expected.
Epic 的处理器客户继续取得进展。我的意思是，我们看到 Meta 部署了数百万个 Epic 处理器。Oracle 也刚刚宣布了 Epic 处理器的巨额订单。每个人都用“Epic”，对吧？
当我们谈论 x86 处理器的市场份额时，很少听到 AMD 获胜，而由于供应链限制，我认为它将继续比其他公司增长得快得多。
Epic's processor customers continue to make gains. I mean, we see Meta deploying millions of Epic processors. Oracle has also just announced huge orders for Epic processors. Everyone uses "Epic", right?
It is very rare to hear that when we talk about market share in x86 processors, AMD wins, and due to supply chain constraints, I think it will continue to grow much faster than others.
作为 AMD 的长期投资者，我不知道公司是否会在这些即将到来的财报中交出令人印象深刻的结果。但作为长期投资者，我知道的是，他们正在打下基础，不是吗？这是能够在整个过程中获胜的基本规则。
所以，这些利润可能不会很疯狂，尽管另一方面 Intel 的利润很疯狂，但未来的指引可能会很疯狂。明年的指引可能会改善，对吧？只要你给我那些乐观的感觉，这就是我作为长期投资者所寻找的。
As a long-term investor in AMD, I don't know if the company will deliver impressive results in these upcoming earnings. But what I do know as a long-term investor is that they are building the foundations, aren't they?
That is the basic rule to be able to win throughout this entire course. So, these profits might not be crazy, and although Intel's profits were crazy on the other hand, the future guidance might be crazy.
The guidelines for next year might improve, right? As long as you give me those optimistic feelings, that's what I'm looking for as a long-term investor.
对我来说，如果我必须选择一个短期内能受益的参与者，那会是 AMD。AMD 已经拥有市场份额，与供应方合作得非常好，并且正在出货大量产品。
For me, if I had to choose one player who could benefit in the near term, it would be AMD. AMD already holds market share, is working very well with supplies, and is shipping a lot of production.
AMD 也是一样。如果它们达不到预期，情况就不一样了。恰恰相反。如果 AMD 达不到预期，是的，我们会看到一些收缩。所以，如果它们没有失败而是超出预期，也不一定会有巨大的上涨。
AMD, the same thing . If they don't meet expectations, it's not the same thing. Quite the opposite. If AMD doesn't meet expectations, yes, we will see some contraction. So, if nations do not fail but rather exceed expectations, there will not necessarily be a huge rise either.
所以，就个人而言，如果我必须选择一个，或者如果我必须按等级选择，我认为 AMD 会是我的第一选择。
So, personally, if I had to choose one, or if I had to choose by level, I think AMD would be my first choice.
至于 AMD，作为长期投资者，我相信他们会继续获得市场份额。我相信他们与 TSMC 的合作将成为应对处理器短缺的巨大资产。所以，我非常兴奋。股价可能继续下跌。无论如何，作为长期投资者，我在这里是为了那个有前景的计划。
Lisa Su 的评论，理解她的计划，并了解处理器市场是否有任何变化，或者收入预测是否有任何变化。如果你给我们很多很棒的数字，那么无论股价怎么走，我都会继续做一个坚定的股东。
As for AMD, as a long- term investor, I believe they will continue to gain market share. I believe their partnership with TSMC will be a tremendous asset in addressing the processor shortage.
So, I'm extremely excited. Stock prices may continue to fall. Regardless, as a long-term investor, I'm here for the promising plan. Comments from Lisa Su, understanding her plan, and finding out if there are any changes in the processor market, or any changes in revenue forecasts.
If you give us lots of great numbers, then no matter what the stock does, I will remain a strong shareholder.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 16 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。