$AMD · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-11-01

We have companies like Airtest Technology, AMD, SuperMicro, iRent and Lumintum announcing their earnings . Each of these companies represents a different aspect of the artificial intelligence industry and the semiconductor supply chain.

Then we have AMD and SuperMicrosoft , which I am very excited about , and they will announce their earnings on Tuesday, November 3rd.

We've heard about Intel, whose results haven't been good, but I think AMD will completely shock the market with Helios Rack, and their shortage of CPUs and supply chain.

Okay, I want to start with AMD, right? AMD projected third-quarter revenue of $13 billion , plus or minus $300 million, with adjusted gross profit margins of approximately 56%.

Now, the latest Wall Street consensus is around $13.12 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.94. I personally believe that AMD is always conservative about its figures . Third quarter revenues, right?

Their high ceiling was 13.3, which is roughly in line with , and slightly above, the average market forecast, but I think we will exceed these numbers.

I believe the shortage of central processing units (CPUs) is much greater than many people expect. I also think that "Helios" will start to show some form of revenue here, and I'm very excited about the comments on that.

For the market right now, it's not just about how you're doing now, it's also about your future expectations. I think this will be the most important part of the entire call. Now, Wall Street is already expecting at least $16 billion, with an average of $16.03 billion in the current consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.55.

I'm curious to see what increased production of " Helios" and demand for server CPUs means for those projections, aren't I ?

Instead of focusing solely on exceeding third-quarter earnings, for me, the excitement lies in: Yes, you will achieve that third-quarter superiority, but how much will Helios production increase?

Does Wall Street really underestimate the size of the demand for artificial intelligence, the size of the available supply chain, and the number of customers willing to pay for your products?

Because $16 billion would be a good step for sequential growth. If they outperform, I think the stock will see a lot of excitement.

In the past three months, since July 30 , the stock has risen by 4%. Now, since the last closing before the earnings announcement, which was on August 4, the stock has fallen by about 2.7%.

This is using the October closing price, which was around $505.

Since the last reaction to earnings, there has been a decline of approximately 7% from the close of August 4th and 5th, hasn't it? That was 7%, and I personally think the market was hoping for a stronger reaction to the CPU and GPU story.

I think we're going to start getting a real taste of that this quarter, either through the numbers they provide or, more importantly, through the forecasts, because that's when we'll see those forecasts from the "Helios" platform.

If AMD comes out and tells us that things really look good. We will see billions of dollars, even tens of billions, for the fourth quarter. I think the market will pick it up and love it.

Obviously, there are many other issues happening in the world right now, many tensions and macroeconomic events that may affect the stock price as a long-term investor.

I'm just looking forward to that commentary, Lisa Su's market commentary on how this anticipated market is going. What are the changes? What are the developments? Is there any shortage occurring?

And how does the market really feel about the Helios system?

On October 27, AMD announced that Meta would be investing, and that they would be investing approximately $1 billion in Meta, and that Meta would be purchasing and expanding its AI infrastructure partnership in both CPU and GPU orders.

They are primarily focused on the CPU market, but what was also interesting was their mention that Meta is already testing the prototype Helios system. Isn't that so? That's the complete solution for the rack. I'm very excited about that.

The next thing is that the World Labs acquisition is still proposed. It was announced on September 28 for $8.2 billion . I won't lie to you. I understood every other acquisition Lisa Su made.

I was saying yes, that makes sense. This time, I'm still a little worried about the $8.2 billion all-stock deal. At least that's a good thing, isn't it? It is not criticism . However, I would still really like to hear a comment about the World Labs acquisition.

Is this really a greater trend towards the robotics market? Is this a trend towards the edge computing market? Is this a greater trend towards open-source models, isn't it? Is this a trend towards becoming a kind of AI model maker as well?

Not necessarily like OpenAI, but to have a foothold in this race as well.

We have seen Nvidia do a lot in the field of open source. Does AMD believe that this is a market we also need to enter? Therefore, it would be great to get some feedback on World Labs .

AMD's increased market share still needs evidence, and I genuinely believe we will see that, don't you? AMD is somewhere else, isn't it? They are working with TSMC . TSMC has a very strong supply chain.

I believe AMD will gain market share in the coming quarters. At least for the next three or four seasons because they have that partnership with TSMC.

Now, some quick insights from Lisa Su's management in recent earnings and from management at previous conferences, such as the Goldman Sachs conference in September: server processor growth is still expected to exceed 80% in the second half of 2026, and overall server processor growth is expected to exceed 70% in 2027.

At the September conference, they stated that the data center segment will more than double in 2027, including CPUs and GPUs, and the mix of profit margins is important. They say that server CPUs support profit margins.

Unfortunately, some initial AI solutions are still below the company's profit margins. Therefore, this will be something worth watching closely.

I don't necessarily think that if the market experiences a slight downward pressure on margins , it will punish the stock, but you really need to understand the product mix. This does not mean that things are bad or that there is no shortage of graphics processing units or central processing units .

Simply put, it depends on the company's profit margins, as the expansion of artificial intelligence into graphics processing units remains slightly less .

Finally, I just want to take a look at these overall calls, price-to-earnings ratios , and valuations for the next 12 months . It's not completely crazy. Air may be the most expensive, but Air's calendar is a little inconsistent.

Again, I don't see the valuations of the next 12 months for growth stocks compared to the rest of the market; many of them seem a little overvalued. For example, with regard to AMD, anything above 30 makes me say, "I could buy a Max 7 with a price-to- earnings ratio in the low twenties, or even the high twenties."

In comparison, yes, these stocks are a bit expensive, but in my opinion, that doesn't necessarily mean there's a crazy bubble. Perhaps you see something different.

Obviously, things can go up and down. Fluctuations still exist. Fear in the market could create further declines. I am not saying that we have reached the bottom or that stocks cannot go down.

Obviously, stocks can go down , but if I own shares in AMD, iRent, or AIR, I'm not worried, am I?

But as for AMD and iRent, I'm not insanely scared . Now, what might change after these calls? For AMD and SuperMicrosoft, the Q4 and full-year guidance will be amazing, won't it?

" AMD," tell us more about "Helios". Is it much bigger?