$AMD · Schwab Network · 2026-11-03
我持有 AMD，并看多。在回调超过20%、跌至约488美元后，我认为周线级别的盘整以及回落至主要均线是积极信号，预计下跌已被消化，短期自然上行空间约在525美元；若财报后出现抛售，将是买入机会，因为过去EPS超预期后都有买家入场。只要AMD守住412美元上方的周线支撑（即200日移动均线），我预计未来数月乃至数年上升趋势将重启，升向650-700美元。
逐段跳播
今天的主角是 AMD。AMD 定于今天收盘后公布财报。围绕 AMD 股票有很多兴奋情绪。当然，这只股票过去几天也出现了一些下跌。
Today's spotlight is on AMD. AMD is scheduled to announce its earnings after the market closes today. There is a lot of excitement surrounding AMD stock . Of course, the stock has seen some declines in the past few days.
你期望从 AMD 那里听到什么？你的预期是什么？我也希望 Intel 股价的下跌以及我们近几天在 AMD 上看到的走势已经被消化了。
What do you expect to hear from AMD? What are your expectations? I also hope that the decline in Intel shares and the movement we have seen in recent days in AMD have already been priced in.
既然下跌已经被消化，AMD 应该能站稳并突破 500 美元关口。
Since the decline has already been absorbed , AMD should hold firm and surpass the $500 level.
但 AMD 的体量远不止于此。我们说的是人工智能芯片、处理器以及一整套技术。AMD 的故事未必只局限于电脑。所以，理想情况下，我们会看到 AMD 传来利好消息。无论从哪个方面衡量，Lisa Su 都是一位出色的领导者。
But AMD is much bigger than that. We are talking about artificial intelligence chips, processors, and a suite of technologies. AMD's story isn't necessarily limited to computers.
So, ideally, we will see positive news from AMD. Lisa Su is an exceptional leader by all measures.
一般来说，当我们在财报前看到这种下跌时，这会在财报发布前营造出更好的局面。我要指出，股价已经出现了技术性下跌，这在财报前可能是负面的。但考虑到我们已经看到了这轮下跌，它被消化进价格里是最理想的。
Generally, when we see this decline before the earnings report, it creates a better situation before the report is released. I would point out that there has been a technical decline in the stock price, which could be negative ahead of the earnings report.
But given that we have already seen this decline, it is ideal that it has been absorbed into the price.
是的，这完全正确。所有这些领域都在高速增长，任何关于它们的正面评论都很可能支撑这只股票；因为 AMD 的周线图看起来非常有希望。
Yes, that's absolutely true. All of these areas are experiencing high growth, and any positive comments about them are likely to support this stock; Because AMD's weekly chart looks very promising.
你看，我很喜欢这个箭头。我持有这只股票。周线图显示出一个整理、整理、然后向主要均线良好回调的状态。所以，如果这次财报传来利好消息，并且我们看到下跌之后出现小幅向上的技术性修正，我认为我们会继续上涨，尤其是考虑到我因人工智能的增长而预期的高目标价。
那些周线目标价达到 650 到 700 美元区间。
Look, I love this arrow. I own this stock. The weekly chart shows a state of consolidation, consolidation, and a good pullback towards the main moving averages . So, if we receive positive news from this earnings report, and we see a slight technical correction to the upside after the drop, I think we will continue to rise, especially with the high price targets I expect thanks to the growth of artificial intelligence.
Those weekly price targets reach a range between $650 and $700.
我们现在处于 488 美元的水平。在从 52 周高点或历史高点下跌超过 20% 之后，我们实际上已经上涨了 4.5%。
We are now at the $488 level. We are actually up 4.5% after having fallen more than 20% from our 52-week high or all-time high.
首先，也是最重要的，当我查看财报时，我总是用隔夜发生的波动来衡量财报产生了什么影响。因此，我们预计期权市场对这份财报的波动预期约为 35 美元。如果我们看到波动达到该值的 1.5 到 2 倍，我会认为这是强劲突破的信号，无论是向上还是向下。
Well, first and foremost, when I look at the earnings report, I always use the movement that happens overnight to gauge what the report has produced , right? Therefore, we expect a move in the options market of around $35 for this report.
If we see a move of 1.5 to 2 times that value, I would consider that an indication of a strong breakout, either upward or downward.
所以，在 488 美元的水平上，我认为涨到 525 美元左右会是一次自然的向上走势。下行方面，我们在 400 到 450 美元价位有关键支撑。所以，这将是财报后股价波动的典型区间。
如果我们走出这个区间，那么从这里开始我会开始关注任一方向的动能。一旦财报后的这波走势出现，我就能更好地评估我们正走向哪个方向。但最终，即使看到财报后的这波走势，我仍然预期那些长期目标价会保持。
只要我们能够维持周线通道以及 412 美元价位上方的周线支撑位——也就是日线图上的 200 日简单移动平均线——我就预期 AMD 会在周线图上恢复上涨趋势，在未来几个月到几年内达到 650 到 700 美元区间。
So, at the $488 level, I think reaching around $525 would be a natural upward move. On the downside, we have crucial support at the $ 400 to $450 price point. So, this would be a typical area for stock movement after the earnings report.
If we step outside this range , then from here I will start monitoring the momentum in either direction. Once this move occurs after the earnings, I will be able to better assess the direction we are heading in.
But ultimately , even seeing this post-earnings move, I still expect those long-term price targets to hold . As long as we are able to maintain the weekly channel and weekly support level above the $412 price point, which is the 200-day simple moving average on the daily chart, I would expect AMD to resume its upward trend on the weekly chart, reaching the $650-$700 range in the coming months and years.
就是这样。因为我知道你在押注 AMD 上涨。因为你在押注 AMD 上涨以及 SMH 指数上涨。但我现在明白你的意思了，因为你实际上是在看下行支撑位，因为你预期会有真正的波动，而这正是我们听到的情况：公司传来好消息，股价却在遭遇抛售。
因此，出现一波抛售并不罕见，而那会是更大的买入机会。所以，你看的是 AMD 未来几年 650 到 700 美元的水平。我明白了。
Here it is. Well, because I know you're betting on AMD's rise. Because you are betting on the rise of AMD and the rise of the SMH index. But I understand what you mean now, because you are really looking at support levels on the downside, because you are expecting real volatility, and that is what we have heard: good news from companies and yet they are experiencing sell-offs, right ?
Therefore, it would not be unusual to see a wave of selling, and that would be a greater buying opportunity . So, you are looking at a $650-$700 level for AMD in the coming years. I understand that.
是的，没错。AMD 将是下一个重大催化剂，决定日线图上的 200 日简单移动平均线能否守住。虽然我对 AMD 持乐观态度，但我在着眼未来，而且我喜欢那些周线图的形态。
Yes, this is correct. AMD will be the next big catalyst to determine whether the 200-day simple moving average on the daily chart will hold up. Although I am optimistic about AMD, I am looking to the future and I like those weekly chart patterns.
本季度财报的部分问题在于，我们看到许多公司公布了正面业绩并超出每股收益预期，股价却在下跌。这就是为什么关注那些预期波动非常重要。因为就 AMD 而言，结合 35 美元的预期波动和以往的历史，即使公司连续七个季度超出每股收益预期，我们也看到股价在其中六次下跌。
因此，这些波动往往导致股价下跌，但买家会进场买入。
Part of the problem with earnings this quarter is that we have seen many companies report positive results and exceed earnings per share estimates, yet their stocks are falling.
That's why it's really important to look at those expected movements. Because with AMD, and with that expected move of $35 and the previous history, even with the company exceeding earnings per share estimates for seven consecutive quarters, we saw the stock decline in six of those seven times.
Therefore, these moves often lead to a drop in the stock price, but buyers step in to buy.
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 24 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。