$AMD · Meet Kevin · 2026-11-03
AMD值得买入,尤其在520以下,长期应保持在520上方。盈利超出预期约4.5%,下一季度环比增长预计接近27%;毛利率从51.7%升至54%。PEG 1.2是英伟达的两倍,但增长潜力更大;5.54亿美元自由现金流和新增47亿美元债务是制约因素。
逐段跳播
像 AMD、Apple、Intel 这样的大公司,当然还有 SuperMicrosoft 等公司,刚刚公布了财报,
Big companies like AMD, Apple, Intel, and of course companies like SuperMicrosoft and others, have just announced their earnings,
我们刚拿到 AMD 的财报,非常出色。利润非常棒,超出预期约 4.5%,他们对下一季度的预测显示环比增长预计将达到约 27%。非常好。
We just got AMD's earnings, and they were amazing. The profits were fantastic and exceeded expectations by about 4.5 percent in their forecast for the next quarter, with sequential growth expected to reach about 27%. Very good.
然而,他们进行循环融资的能力不如 Nvidia。他们大约有 5 亿美元的自由现金流。这完全无法与 Nvidia 拥有的自由现金流相比。
However, they have less ability to conduct circular financing as Nvidia does. They have approximately $500 million in free cash flow. This is in no way comparable to the free cash flow that Nvidia possesses.
他们现在在谈论来自 AMD 和 Nvidia 等芯片设计公司的竞争。这是一款高利润率的产品。
They are now talking about competition from chip designers such as AMD and Nvidia. It is a product with a high profit margin.
这有点类似于你在 AMD 看到的定价能力。我们稍后可以看看那些评级,但先来看看 AMD 这里的数字。我们看到了什么?首先,他们拥有我见过的最新的营收。1337,这真是个惊人的数字。
我非常钦佩。但他们的销售成本,基本上我们会在这里计算他们的利润率。他们的毛利率已增长到 54%。去年,他们的毛利率是 51.7%。所以,这些芯片设计公司和设备供应商的定价能力正在增强。
It's somewhat similar to the pricing power you see at AMD. We can look at those ratings in a moment, but let's move on to AMD's numbers here . What do we see here? First and foremost, they have the most up-to-date revenue I've ever seen. 1337, that's a truly amazing number.
I admire that very much . But their sales costs, and essentially we will calculate their profit margin here. Their gross profit margin has grown to 54%. Last year, they were at a gross profit margin of 51.7%.
So, pricing power is increasing for these chip designers and device vendors.
Apple、AMD 和 SuperMicrosoft 的利润表现优异,而且优势明显,并且他们提高了将安装的服务器数量的预期。
Apple , AMD, and SuperMicrosoft have outperformed in profits, significantly so, and have raised their expectations for the number of servers they will install.
所有这些工作都将在 AMD 芯片上运行,
All of this work will be running on AMD chips,
好,我告诉你。AMD 和 Apple,我喜欢它们。我在这两家都有投资。它们目前不是最便宜的选择。
Okay, I'll tell you. AMD and Apple, I love them. I have investments in both of them. They are not the cheapest options at the moment.
而如果 AMD 大约在 1.25,那么便宜货在哪里,Kevin?
and if AMD is at around 1.25, then where are the bargains, Kevin?
兄弟,AMD 的利润非常棒。猜猜电脑那边发生了什么?它大幅下滑了。我没跟你开玩笑。这里非常清楚。娱乐设备和系统部门同比下降了 8%。是的,这就是为什么 Intel 也受到了影响。
这与人工智能无关。在我看来,这是人工智能力量的标志。人工智能太好了,以至于推高了随机存取存储器(RAM)的价格。结果呢?好,给你。你现在在所有方面都取得了巨大成功,即使没有消费者购买。
AMD 的数据中心在这里几乎翻了一番,这太棒了。
Brother, AMD's profits were fantastic. Guess what happened to the computers? It has declined significantly. I'm not joking with you. It is perfectly clear here. The entertainment devices and systems sector declined by 8 % year-on-year.
Yes, that's why Intel was also affected. This has nothing to do with artificial intelligence. In my opinion, it is a sign of the power of artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is so good that it drives up the price of random access memory (RAM).
As a result, what happens? Okay, here you are. You are now achieving great success in everything, even with the absence of consumer purchases. Data centers have almost doubled here at AMD, and that's fantastic.
那么,AMD 在这个领域处于什么位置?AMD 通过其“Halo”平台参与其中,这是企业人工智能的基础。他们的平台“Halo”,比如 AI Max Pros,可以集成到小型或大型计算机中。
我非常看好 AMD 能打造的东西,你可以使用很多这些产品。现在,在一些小型计算机中,AMD 芯片的成本不超过 25 美元,所以利润率略低。这个部门的利润率明显低于数据中心。
So, where does AMD stand in this field? AMD is present through its "Halo" platform, which is the foundation for artificial intelligence in enterprises. Their platform, "Halo," like AI Max Pros, can be integrated into small or larger computers.
I am a big fan of what AMD can build, and you can use a lot of these products. Now, in some small computers, AMD chips cost no more than $25, so the profit margins are slightly lower.
This sector has a significantly lower profit margin than data centers.
让我们再快速看看 AMD,然后我们再看其他一些股票。好吧,如果你看 AMD 刚发布的财报,我在这里还能看到另一件事,就是他们想进入能在太空停留 15 年的太空芯片业务。我做了一个小笔记,说他们当然希望 Elon Musk 把钱花在他们的芯片上,尽管 Elon 说在太空芯片合作中他们只想用 SpaceX,或者只想用 Nvidia。
但 AMD 知道 Elon 会非常大手笔地花钱。那为什么不呢,亲爱的?我们为什么不造一款至少能吸引 Jeff Bezos 的芯片呢?是的。好,那么。合乎逻辑。他们会疯狂花钱。然后,我们谈到了客户数据中心,我们谈到了数据中心如何增长到翻倍,这令人印象深刻。
我们谈到了,让我们看看,第三季度营收。啊,是的,好的。那么,让我们看看营收数字,我们可以看到,如果我们转到这里的利润表,这相当令人印象深刻。因此,他们的环比增长是 15.9%。
他们预期这个,与上一季度相比。他们预计在本季度和下一季度之间,这个数字将从 15.5 或 15.9% 几乎翻倍到 27%。换句话说,AMD 将经历加速增长。这超出了预期。这就是我们看到 AMD 冲回 520 水平那条传奇线的原因之一。
在我看来,每次 AMD 低于 520 水平,你都应该买入。这不是个人财务建议,但这条特定的线非常有吸引力,因为我相信长期来看我们会保持在其上方。
Let's take another quick look at AMD, and we'll look at some other stocks here. Well, if you take AMD’s earnings report that just came out, there’s another thing I can see here which is that they want to get into the space chip business that can stay in space for 15 years.
I made a small note stating that they would of course like Elon Musk to spend on their chips, although Elon says that in the space chip partnership they want to use only SpaceX, or they want to use only Nvidia.
But AMD knows that Elon will spend money very lavishly. So why not, my dear? Why don't we create a chip that at least attracts Jeff Bezos? Yes. Okay, then. logical. They will spend money like crazy .
Then, we talked about customer data centers , and we talked about how data centers have grown to double, which was impressive. We talked about, let's see, the third quarter revenues .
Ah, yes, okay. So, let's look at the revenue figures, and we can see that if we move to the income statement here, this was quite impressive. Therefore, their sequential growth is 15.9%.
They are expecting this, compared to the last quarter. They expect that between this quarter and the next, the figure will nearly double from 15.5 or 15.9% to 27%. In other words, AMD will experience accelerated growth .
This exceeds expectations. This is one of the reasons why we see AMD rushing back to that legendary line at the 520 level. In my opinion, every time AMD is below the 520 level, you should buy it.
This is not personal financial advice , but this particular line is very attractive because I believe we will stay above it in the long run.
现在,AMD 不是这些公司中最便宜的。我们这里有它的评级。啊,我们有“AM Diesel”。让我们看看这里。AMD,AMD,我把它的评级放哪儿了?我必须找到它。所以,Apple 基于更高的增长率处于第二级。
AMD 的 PEG 比率是 1.2。这使得它比 Nvidia 贵一倍。所以,这是基于他们未来每股收益增长 56% 的 PEG 比率。它比 Nvidia 贵一倍,但当然它只占其规模的一小部分。
因此,论点是他们可能有更大的增长潜力。我非常看好这一点。
Now, AMD is not the cheapest among these companies. We have its review here. Ah, we have " AM Diesel". Let's see here. AMD, AMD, where did I place my rating for it? I must find him.
So, Apple was at level two based on a higher growth rate . AMD's PEG ratio was 1.2. This makes it twice as expensive as Nvidia. So, this is their PEG ratio based on their future growth of 56% in earnings per share.
It is twice as expensive as Nvidia, but of course it represents a small fraction of its size. Therefore, the argument is that they probably have greater potential for growth. I am a big fan of this.
相反,在 Marvel 投一点,在 Broadcom 投一点,在 AMD 投一点,在 Apple 投一点,在 Nvidia 投一点。
Instead, invest a little in Marvel, a little in Broadcom, a little in AMD, a little in Apple , and a little in Nvidia.
结果,回购操作受到负面影响。目前,AMD 的自由现金流仍然已经很少了。啊,他们的自由现金流和资产负债表,他们有足够的钱支付账单,有充足的钱来履行短期和长期义务。所以,这不是问题。
但自由现金流只有 5.54 亿美元。这就是为什么他们倾向于提供股票,而不是像 Nvidia 那样实际提供现金来投资公司。所以他们会去找像 OpenAI 这样的公司说:“嗨,和我们合作,我们会给你以一分钱购买 AMD 股票的期权。”
当这些与公司相关时,这被称为“股票担保”,对吧?然后,如你所知,你在这里也看不到回购。AMD 还额外产生了 47 亿美元的债务。所以甚至 AMD 也在说:“哇,这是决定性时刻,伙计。”我们需要花更多的钱。让我们借更多,增长更多。
As a result, buyback operations are negatively affected. Right now, AMD's free cash flow is still already minimal. Ah, their free cash flow and balance sheet, they have enough money to pay their bills, plenty of money to meet their short-term and long-term obligations.
So, this is not a problem. But the free cash flow is only 554 million. This is why they tend to offer their shares rather than actually offering cash to invest in companies as Nvidia does.
So they will go to a company like OpenAI and say, "Hi, partner with us and we will give you options to buy AMD shares for one cent." These are called "stock guarantees" when they relate to a company , right?
Then, as you know, you don't see buybacks here either. AMD also incurred additional debt of $4.7 billion . So even AMD is saying, "Wow, this is the defining moment, man." We need to spend more money. Let's borrow more and grow more.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 23 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。