$AMD · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-04
AMD本季度表现非常好，业绩和指引均超预期；预计明年数据中心将占营收80%以上，下季度增长50%，明年营收预计增长80%以上，而市场预期为76%。但该股年初至今已上涨120%，估值偏高，市盈率达106倍，比Nvidia的17-18倍远期市盈率更贵；AMD必须靠增长来消化估值，估值倍数最终会成为阻力，不过如果股价停滞而业务加速，倍数可能下降。
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好，我们来说最重要的那个。这里人越来越多了。AMD，我想你已经在Motley Fool的频道上谈过你的看法了，但给我们一个概要，说说你的想法。非常好的一个季度。非常好的一个季度。
这只股票，是的，确实从我认为的52周高点回落了23%。但它们给出的正是我想要的。季度业绩超预期，指引也超预期。我们拿到了Q4的一些数字。我们终于有了更多数字，2027年的实际数字。
所以，数据中心业务当然是全场的主角。我是说，在Intel的财报之后，AMD也跌了近10%，因为Intel报告PC业务大幅大幅放缓之类的，但另外Intel比AMD更像是一个代工故事，因为AMD没有代工厂。
All right, let's get to the big one. Uh, we got people rolling in here. AMD, you have put your your thoughts out there, I think, already on the Montly Fool's channel, but give us a synopsis of what you what you thought.
Very good quarter. Very good quarter. The stock, yes, did pull back 20 23% from I think from its 52- week highs. But they they gave exactly what what I wanted. There is a beat for the quarter, a beat for guidance.
We got some numbers for Q4. we finally have more numbers, actual numbers for 2027. So, the data center segment of course is the star of the show. I mean, after Intel's earnings report, um AMD was also down close to 10% because Intel reported a huge huge slowdown in in PC segment and all of that, but plus Intel is a more alo of a foundry story than than AMD because AMD doesn't have a foundry.
但AMD的数据中心增长才是全场的主角。明年数据中心将占全部营收的80%以上。预计下季度增长50%。我认为下季度他们预计能产生170亿美元，高于市场的预期。预计明年营收增长超过80%。
所以我们现在已经有了明年的基准，就是超过80%。市场原本预期同比增长76%。所以它们已经超过了这些预期，而且它们可能还能做得更多一点，就像Nvidia对其下一财年所说的那样。它们预计至少增长70%。
But AMD's data center growth is is the star of the show. Data center is next year going to be over 80% of all revenue. It's expected to grow next quarter by 50%. I think next quarter they're expected to generate $17 billion which is above what the market uh is expecting.
They're expected to grow revenue next year by over 80%. So now we already have a baseline for next year which is going to be over over 80%. Market was looking for 76% growth year-over-year.
So they're already beating these uh estimates and they can maybe do even more bit like Nvidia said for their next fiscal year. They're expecting to grow at least 70%.
当然，Nvidia产生的营收比AMD多得多，但它也价值5万亿美元。但这是一个不错的季度。这是一次出色的电话会，因为通常AMD会给出不错的季度业绩，然后在电话会上我们总得去揣摩他们对数据中心增长想说什么，但现在我想，既然他们正在放量生产Helios产品，这款产品应该能更好地与Nvidia提供的全机架级解决方案竞争，我想他们现在发布数字时自在多了，因为对未来的情况有更好的可见度。
Of course Nvidia is generating a lot more revenue than than AMD but it's also worth $5 trillion. But it's it was a good quarter. It was an excellent call because usually we get good quarter by MD and then during the call we always have to decipher what they're trying to say about the uh data center growth but now I guess now that they're ramping up their their Helios product which should compete much better with what Nvidia is offering the full rascale solution I guess they're way more comfortable putting out numbers because they have better visibility about what's about what's to come
所以股票今天的初步反应非常好，这我们都知道，但这更多还是与新闻头条和选举有关，而不是与实际业务有关，这只股票现在接近持平。
and so stock initial reaction was very good today as we know but it has more to do with again headlines and and and elections than the actual business stock is is close to being flat right now.
话虽如此，AMD年初至今已经上涨了120%。几周前AMD还是一家万亿美元公司。估值相当高。这是它们的季度数字。所以它们的数据中心业务现在占其业务的绝大部分，而在2024年初时还不到一半，客户业务也在继续增长，但这现在是一家数据中心公司了。
That said, AMD is already up 120% year to date. AMD was a trillion dollar company a couple of weeks ago. Valuation was quite stretched. this is their quarterly numbers. So their data center uh is now a vast majority of their business whereas it was less than half the business in you know at the beginning of 2024 uh you know the client revenue uh you know continues to grow as well but this is now a data center business.
我确实想引到估值上，估值有点有点存疑。106倍市盈率，18倍市销率。这是假设我们会在一段时间内保持80%的增长。
I do want to pull in uh to lead you into the valuation is a little a little questionable. uh 106 times earnings, 18 times sales. That's that's assuming that we're going to have 80% growth for a while.
我在找它们自己的每股收益目标，因为它们在分析师日确实给了中期指引，我想它们说2030年前每股收益应该超过20美元，或者也许是25美元，两者之一。
I I am looking for their own EPS targets because they they did they did give us midterm guidance in their analyst day and I think they said they should be exceeding 20 $20 of earnings by 2030 or maybe 25 one of the two.
从交易层面看它绝对很贵，从前瞻角度看也非常贵，但现在正在变得便宜一些。一是因为股票回落了，二是因为分析师们会因为AMD公布的大幅超预期业绩而上调他们自己的预期。
it is definitely expens on a trading basis it is very expensive on a forward-looking basis it's getting cheaper now. um one because the stock has pulled back and two because well analysts are just going to to revise their own estimates on on the upside with the with the big beat that AMD has posted
但它是一家——我是说，他们自己告诉我们，他们预计未来几年会增长得相当快，而到2030年每股收益至少20美元或至少25美元的目标绝对可行，好吧，也许我不想用2030年的市盈率倍数。
but it is a company that is I mean they themselves told us they are expected to grow quite rapidly over the next couple of years and the EPS target of at least 20 or at least 25 dollars of earnings by 2030 is is definitely feasible and okay maybe I don't want use a price to earnings multiple for 2030.
但嗯，是的，它绝对比Nvidia贵。我认为Nvidia目前按前瞻盈利计算市盈率是17、18倍，尽管它比AMD大得多得多。
But um yeah, it's it's definitely more expensive than Nvidia. I think Nvidia is trading at 17 18 times forward earnings as of right now despite it being much much bigger than AM than AMD.
但没错，AMD 现在必须让增长来消化估值，这就是为什么股价正从650多美元的高位被拉下来。尽管我非常希望 AMD 每天都上涨，但我认为，就像 Travis 喜欢说的那样，归根结底，估值很重要。
But yeah, AMD is now going to have to grow into valuation which which is why the stock is being pulled down from the high $650. As much as I would love AMD to continue to go up each and every day, u I think uh certain Travis likes to say at the end of the day, valuation matters.
我敢打赌，大概率只是估值倍数的增长就能跑赢市场。这是自2015年底以来的市销率倍数。这个倍数以36.6%的复合年增长率增长。
I'm willing to bet that it would probably just the multiple growth probably beat the market. This is the price to sales multiple since the end of 2015. The multiple the multiple has grown at a 36.6% compound annual growth rate.
我们从0.4倍，好吧，我就算最近五、五、五、五、五年，六年吧，因为2015年时这家公司差点破产，所以……好，我们看2020年底，市销率倍数的复合年增长率仍有8%。
we've gone from a point4 multip well okay let's I'll I'll do the last five five five five five years six years let's say cuz 2015 this was a company that almost went bankrupt so okay we'll go to uh end of 2020 we still have a 8% price of sales multiple compound annual growth rate
最终，估值倍数会成为这些公司的逆风。我不知道是不是现在，也不知道是不是五年后，但最终，市销率倍数——是多少来着，18？嗯，你必须让业务增长来消化它。如果你做不到，你可以看看，我们2015年起步时是0.4。
我不是说它会回到0.4，但如果它降到6，你就必须把业务规模扩大两倍，才能维持同样的估值。
eventually the multiple becomes a headwind for these companies. I don't know if that's right now. I don't know if it's going to be in five years, but eventually a price to sales multiple of what was it for 18.
Um you you got to live into that. And if you don't, you can go to, you know, we started 2015 at 0.4. I'm not saying it's going to point4, but if it goes to if it goes to six, you got to triple the size of the business to now have the same valuation.
所以这就是很多这类公司面临的真正挑战。我认为我们大概率——如果未来五年就这么过去，很多这类公司就这么缓慢前行，你再看结果，会想，业务表现很好啊，而变化的是估值倍数在慢慢下降，我也不会感到意外。
And so that's the that's the real challenge here with a lot of these companies. And I think we're going to probably I wouldn't be surprised if we just kind of go through the next five years and a lot of these companies just kind of grind along and you look at the results and you go, what the the business is doing great and what changes is is that the multiple is just slowly coming down.
但没错，对他们来说这是个不错的季度。市场没有发布后10分钟时那么热情，我并不感到意外。好吧，市自由现金流，那我们来谈谈这个，因为 AMD 在数据中心方面的数据很棒。我们谈过 TPU，Tranium 表现非常好。
But um but yeah, I mean, you know, good quarter for them. I'm not shocked to see that the market is kind of a little less enthusiastic than they were, you know, 10 minutes after the release came out.
Well, price to free cash flow but so let's so let's talk about that because AMD has great numbers in the data center. We've talked about uh TPUs, tranium doing really well.
它们不可能都在数据中心实现100%的同比增长，除非数据中心支出每年增长100%再乘以四。而事实并非如此，它在增长，但没那么快。所以这对我来说将是值得关注的有趣之处。
You can't they can't all grow 100% year-over-year in the data center unless data center spending is growing 100% times four yearover-year. And it's not it's growing, but it's not growing that quickly.
And so that's going to be the that's going to be the interesting thing for me to watch.
AMD 的情况是，它不需要市场翻倍，因为他们的那部分收入没那么大。所以他们可以在市场没有更快增长的情况下实现超高速增长。
The the thing with AMD is that it doesn't need the the the market to double just because the their re their part of revenue is not that big. So they can grow super fast without the market growing faster
所以确实，公司必须让增长来消化估值。不是所有公司，但某些公司会自然而然地消化掉，因为它们的业务突然从这里开始加速，AMD 就是一个例子。预计业务将从这里加速，这意味着如果股价没有太大变动，估值倍数会很快下降，尤其是在这样的增速下。
So it's true that companies will have to grow into valuation. Not everyone but certain but some companies will just grow into it naturally because their business suddenly accelerates from here and AMD's is an example.
The business is expected to accelerate from here which means if the price doesn't move that much the multiple will come down quite quickly especially at these at these growth rates.
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。