$AMD · Financial Education · 2026-11-04

Look at AMD, bro. It's quite difficult. It still ended up green, but man , it should have been a lot greener than it was today. Today, $12,000 was earned , but man, it should have been much bigger.

But I mean, at the end of the day, if all these semiconductor stocks go down that much , it's going to drag AMD down too. So, the day should have been much better for AMD.

Look at me, I made millions of dollars from AMD , right? Profit. It was incredible. But I bought that stock when people weren't bothered about it. People wouldn't have said anything about it back then, right?

This is quite different from when someone might have bought shares in the last few months, right?

Now, with these words in mind, I would like to show you my AMD portfolio. I have the newly updated bare case, bull case, and base case for AMD. I will first show you my bare case, then the base case, and finally the bull case.

Okay, that's my bare case for AMD. So, according to my bare case, I assume that their revenue will be $97 billion in 2027. And then there will be income growth of only 15% per year.

This is a fairly low and common number. But this is a bare case. So we have to be very cautious now. Speaking of net income growth, it will definitely be much higher in 2027, right?

I estimate their net income in 2027 will be around $28 billion. But then there will be a huge slowdown. Basically, my bare case assumes that there will be a huge slowdown in data center spending and capital expenditures in 2028 and beyond.

And that's possible, right? Hmm, that's unlikely, but it's certainly possible. So, in that scenario, the average net income growth would be only 25%. That is, in 2030 they will have about $139 billion in revenue and $54 billion in net income, where the PE ratio will be between 20 and 25 and I will still get returns that will probably outperform the market.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you're wondering why I can't sell AMD stock , this is a big reason. If I run a bare case on a stock and get results where the stock is likely to outperform the S&P 500, that's pretty interesting.

I'm showing you the base case and bull case of my AMD. My base case is what I realistically expect. These are my newly updated numbers. Let's get started. According to my base case, AMD will reach $94 billion in 2027.

Now, many people think they'll surpass 100 billion, but in my base case or bull case—neither do I think they'll surpass 100 billion next year. You should keep that in mind. Well , I guess they'll reach $94 billion next year.

And next year, there will be a net income of $28 billion. Okay , then there will be an average income growth of only 20% per year. So, it's not too much of an exaggeration. I estimate that their revenue will reach $162 billion in 2030.

Many bullish investors believe their earnings will exceed $200 billion. Even in my bull case, I don't think they will exceed 200 billion in 2030. Here are some things to consider in my case and why this stock is so attractive, right?

Average net income is 35%. So, I'm estimating $70 billion in net income by 2030, okay ? The net income margin under this assumption is 44 %. Ugh, this is a far cry from where Nvidia is now.

Be sure to remember this. Right. In that situation, I have pegged their PE ratio between 25 and 30. And it's a stock worth much more than $1,000. And in my scenario, the stock could surpass $1,000 in 2029.

Now, ladies and gentlemen, remember that the stock market does not always operate based on reality. So AMD could surpass $1,000 next year. I'm not saying for sure that it will exceed $1,000 next year , but it could go up, right ?

Like stocks, many things in the future add value now. And so, if you believe that AMD will exceed $1,000 after 2029, people usually start buying earlier, and so it reaches that point before then, right?

Um, so that's my base case for this stock. Um, and under my base case, the best-case scenario is that the stock could reach $1,300 before or around 2030. So, there are some things to consider , uh, the stock is now in the 400s , bull case?

My bull case for AMD is this: I assume their revenue next year will reach $99 billion and net income will reach about $31 billion, right? Net income margin is 31%. They will then gradually improve that net income margin to 49% by 2030.

In this scenario, I assume that by 2030 they will have a revenue of $194 billion, and $94 billion of that will be net income. A PE ratio of 25 to 35, that would take the stock to about $1,400 to $2,000 by 2030 , right?

And we will get a very strong compound annual growth. So, you know, in my situation for AMD , my base case, my base case is basically what I'm hoping for, right? I am getting a compound annual growth rate of over 20%. That's why I remain an investor in AMD , right?

will reach $94 billion in 2027. Now, many people think they'll surpass 100 billion, but in my base case or bull case—neither do I think they'll surpass 100 billion next year. You should keep that in mind.

Well, I guess they'll reach $94 billion next year. And next year, there will be a net income of $28 billion. Okay, then there will be an average income growth of only 20% per year.

So, it's not too much of an exaggeration. I estimate that their revenue will reach $162 billion in 2030. Many bullish investors believe their earnings will exceed $200 billion.

Even in my bull case, I don't think they will exceed 200 billion in 2030.

Here are some things to consider in my case and why this stock is so attractive, right? Average net income is 35%. So, I'm estimating $70 billion in net income by 2030, okay? The net income margin under this assumption is 44%.

Ugh, this is a far cry from where Nvidia is now. Be sure to remember this. Right. In that situation, I have pegged their PE ratio between 25 and 30. And it's a stock worth much more than $1,000.

And in my scenario, the stock could surpass $1,000 in 2029.

Now, ladies and gentlemen, remember that the stock market does not always operate based on reality. So AMD could surpass $1,000 next year. I'm not saying for sure that it will exceed $1,000 next year, but it could go up, right?

Like stocks, many things in the future add value now. And so, if you believe that AMD will exceed $1,000 after 2029, people usually start buying earlier, and so it reaches that point before then, right?

So, there are some things to consider, uh, the stock is now in the 400s, bull case? My bull case for AMD is this: I assume their revenue next year will reach $99 billion and net income will reach about $31 billion, right?

Net income margin is 31%. They will then gradually improve that net income margin to 49% by 2030. In this scenario, I assume that by 2030 they will have a revenue of $194 billion, and $94 billion of that will be net income.

A PE ratio of 25 to 35, that would take the stock to about $1,400 to $2,000 by 2030, right? And we will get a very strong compound annual growth.

So, you know, in my situation for AMD, my base case, my base case is basically what I'm hoping for, right? I am getting a compound annual growth rate of over 20%. That's why I remain an investor in AMD, right?

And so, what happens in the short term will happen, but at the end of the day, this stock has a lot of potential in the coming years, right? So, that's my position on AMD.

What is AMD's recent net profit margin? How will the results of this election affect AMD, Kake, ELF, and Celsius, right?