Amazon 的电商威胁已经减弱；目前在资本配置上更受青睐；预计将在 10 年内受益于 AI 带来的生产率提升。
逐段跳播
对于我们这些在投资组合中持有Alphabet和Amazon这类公司的人来说，这意味着什么？
What It means for us who We own companies like Alphabet and Amazon in Our investment portfolio?
我刚说过，我想我们两天前在社区里有过一次讨论，当时他提出疑问：人们在问，是否有必要给Amazon和Google、Microsoft这类公司授予倍数。如今情况不同了，这些公司的负债比以往更深，但基本上，难道不是这样吗？
I have I just spoke, I think We had a discussion years in the community before Two days, where he wondered People are asking whether it is from It is necessary to grant companies such Amazon and Google Microsoft multipliers It's different now that These companies became Deeper in debt Ever, but Basically, isn't that right?
Amazon是这些公司中第一家、那位先驱投资者投入巨额资本、并在AWS服务推出时变得更具资本密集型的公司。当时所有人都说：“你有一个很棒的商业模式，你不需要花大钱投入资本，你有利润率，利润极佳。”
但现在，你把大笔资本投入一个最终可能利润率微弱的项目，而且你被迫投入巨额资本。这个项目是Amazon的皇冠明珠，利润率高达35%，这正是投资者在考虑投资Amazon时所渴望投资的项目。
Amazon was the first company Among the companies The pioneering investor Huge capital and became More capitalist intensity When AWS services were launched. At that time, Everyone says, "You have A great business model, no You need to spend capital Big money, you have margins "Excellent profit."
But now, So you are spending capital Big on a project that may He ends up With weak profit margins, And you are forced to invest Huge capital. this The project is the crown jewel Amazon, with profit margins It reaches up to 35%, which is The project that he desires investors in Investing in it when They are thinking about Amazon.
比如，如果我们现在把Amazon和Google作比较，对吧？我想那是一年前，只有一家，当时我并不认为引擎会失灵。经过三到五年的研究，接下来的是一个传闻，我们当时认为Alphabet会比Amazon处于更有利的位置，比如说。
现在，如果我们看这两家公司，我们会发现Alphabet因其业务多元化而拥有广泛的选择，因此不可能……
For example, if We have now compared Amazon And Google, right? I think it was a year ago Only one, when I didn't The idea of engine failure Research over the years three to five The next one is a rumor, we were We believe Alphabet will be In a stronger position than Amazon , For example.
Now, if we look at The two companies, we find that Alphabet has options Wide due to diversity Its activities, therefore it is not possible
但看起来Amazon现在至少从某个角度、在理论上拥有更好的收入来源。那就是电子交易部门。还有广告，比如说。
But it seems that Amazon now owns, At least from one point of view Theoretically, a better source of income. It is the trade department Electronic. And the advertisement, for example Example.
但我的观点是，Amazon作为一个市场平台，也许大到足以说：“好吧，我不干了，我们不会把自己整合进Muse和其他代理之中。”
but My point of view is that Amazon, as a marketplace, perhaps Be big enough To say: "Well, I have We stopped working, and we won't We are integrated into Muse And other agents."
我相信至少有一种可能，就是Amazon能够维持其广告业务，因为大多数人仍会转向它，因为它有许多、许多优势。所以事情不仅限于服务，不只是物流，还包括你能从Amazon购买的商品数量。
而且你可以完全确定，因为它提供最好的价格。所以，如果我去购物，并且认为我要找的商品可能在Amazon上有，我会选择Amazon，毫无疑问。
I believe there is a chance, At least, so that you can Amazon to maintain Her advertising work, Because most people will remain They head towards it because It has many advantages Many.
So the matter is not Limited to services Not just logistics, but It also includes quantity Products you can Buy it from Amazon. And you can be absolutely sure Because it offers the best Prices.
So, if you I shop and I think The product I'm looking for It may be present on Amazon, I will choose Amazon, definitely.
因此，我认为你得有Amazon那样的规模才能受益，也许甚至才能维持你的广告业务。否则，在电子商务领域将会极其艰难。
Therefore, I think you should To be the size of Amazon To benefit, and perhaps even To be able to maintain Your advertising work. Otherwise, it will be in Extremely difficult in the field E-commerce.
但你也有成功的电子商务业务，此外还有人工智能的基础设施。你有自己的芯片，你有AWS云，你还有许多其他正在进行的工作。
But you also have work e-commerce Successful, in addition To the infrastructure For artificial intelligence. You have your own chips, You have the AWS cloud, and you have Many works The other ongoing.
但我认为，如果你今天问我，考虑到估值，关于我会把更多资本配置给哪家公司，我现在会选择Amazon，因为其中的研究工作不像以前那样可疑，我看不到Amazon的电子商务业务面临同样的威胁，尽管那里也在发生变化。
but I think if you asked me today Taking into account Consideration of assessments, Regarding the company I will allocate She has more capital now So I will choose Amazon, because The research work in it did not It is as questionable as it was Previously, I don't see The same threat to businesses e-commerce For Amazon, although things Changes are happening there too.
是的。是的。Amazon令人兴奋、有趣之处在于它结合了Berkshire和Alphabet的方式，不是吗？它在运输、卡车运输以及物流和仓储服务领域运作，不是吗？这就是过去十年Amazon投资的本质。
Yes. Yes. The exciting thing Interesting in Amazon is It combined approaches Berkshire and Alphabet, Isn't that so? Where it works In the field of transportation Trucking and Services Logistics and warehousing, Isn't that so?
This is it The essence of investments Amazon over the decade the past.
而最终，你无法控制人们如何搜索商品和购买商品。当然，Amazon希望尽可能控制客户关系并完全控制他们的数据。但如果有1亿客户通过Muse平台购物，Amazon将不得不允许Muse通过与之合并。
And at the end Ultimately, you cannot Amazon control How people search for Products and purchasing them. Of course, Amazon wants In controlling relationships Customers as much as possible and control their data Completely.
But if There were one hundred million customers They shop through the Muse platform, Amazon will have to Allow Muse By merging with it.
但这个平台与另一个不同之处在于，通过互联网购买商品必须真正能送到你家门口。不是吗？现实中存在一种机制，比如我从Amazon订购一件新衬衫或袜子，会有一个系统整合进来，无论有没有人工智能，商品都会送到我手上，作为消费者。所以，我认为这对他们来说代表着巨大的优势，
but What distinguishes this platform from Another thing is that when buying Products via The internet must be accessible Really to your doorstep. Isn't that so? There is a mechanism In reality, for example if I ordered a shirt or socks New from Amazon, There will be a system Integrated, regardless of artificial intelligence, The product will be delivered to me.
As a consumer. So, I think That this represents an advantage tremendous to them,
无论用什么方式，商品都必须送到你家门口，没有人有能力做到这一点，或者比Amazon更适合投资于此。
Whatever The method, it must arrive Products to door Your home, and no one in a position He is allowed to do so or It is better to invest in it From Amazon.
比如，如果我让像Moose这样的代理购买一件特定商品，比如说袜子，大多数情况下它会通过Amazon下单，因为那里有最好的物流服务和最好的价格。因此，对代理来说，就像对你一样，从Amazon购买商品是合理的。
这反过来会增加销量，因此会提高Amazon在物流服务上的销售佣金。
For example, if I asked an agent like Moose Buying a specific product, let's say socks, in most Sometimes it will be requested via Amazon due to availability Best services Logistics and best Prices.
Therefore, regarding For the agent, as is the case For you, from It makes sense to buy the product From Amazon. This in turn It will increase sales volume Therefore, it will raise Amazon commission Sales on services Logistics.
所以，我认为如果你拥有这些巨大的市场力量、这种庞大的规模，我们甚至可能不知道事情最终会如何收场，但如果某一部分业务没有以同样的方式成功，我认为其他部分会弥补它。比如，如果广告佣金率下降或不再同等重要，他们可以提高物流服务佣金的百分比。
那样的话，对卖家来说也是公平的，因为物流的价值会上升。这不像他们只是试图降价，而是在那个世界里物流的价值会比现在大得多。
So, I think If you have these Market power The enormous size, we may not know Even how things will end Exactly, but if not Part of the work succeeds In the same way, I see that The other parts will compensate that.
For example, if Commission rate decreased Ads or no longer Of equal importance, They can increase the percentage Service commission Logistics. And then, That would be fair For sellers because of the value Logistics It will rise.
It's not like If only they would try Price reductions, but value Logistics It will be much bigger in That world compared In its current state.
再说一次，这对市场来说是一个重要观点，但全世界最好的公司都在同时从“See's Candy”模式转向资本密集型模式。可以说Amazon确实是个花钱的大头。
Again, this is a point Important for the markets, but The best companies in The whole world is moving From the "See's Candy" model to capital-intensive model At the same time. And it is possible To say that Amazon was Indeed, a thick head the money.
如你所知，如果你看Amazon，一年前它有180亿美元的自由现金流，现在则是-76亿美元。
as Learn, if you look at Amazon had 18 billion dollars in flow Free criticism a year ago, It is now -7.6 billion dollar.
但我知道Google、Amazon在这个领域投入更多。
But I know that Google Amazon is investing More in this area.
但就Amazon而言，这令人兴奋。出乎意料地。因为他们与OpenAI的关系，可能会减少支出，但他们拥有基于云的业务。他们仍然投资于电子芯片。因此，出乎意料地，他们现在赚取了巨额利润。
but on Amazon This is exciting. Surprisingly. Because they, as You know, they might spend Less because of their relationship with OpenAI, but they have Cloud-based businesses. as They still They invest in chips Electronic.
Therefore, from Surprisingly, they They make huge profits now.
或者以Amazon为例。
or Amazon, for example
另外，我不知道你如何能看出这一点，如果你比较所有广告公司，比如Google和Amazon、Airbnb和Uber，
Also, I don't know how You can see that if you compare All advertising companies, Like Google and Amazon, Airbnb and Uber,
但如果你进入Amazon，你是想购物。所以你浏览商品，就在那一刻你看到它为你投放广告，然后你就买了。立刻买，因为你现在就想买某样东西。我认为这些广告很难为之辩护。
But if you enter Amazon, you want shopping. So, you Browse the products, and That moment you see You advertise it and then buy it. Immediately because you want to buy Something now. I think that These ads are difficult Defend it.
简单来说就是：如果你持有最好的公司，她相信你将在10年的生产力收益和人工智能经济学带来的好处中受益，最终一切都会好起来。因此，正因如此，当我不知道事情会如何变化时，如果我持有Amazon或Google的股份，我确信它们都会从中受益。
为期十年。我不知道两三年内是否会出现经济泡沫，但十年后我会没事。
Simply put, it is: if you Own the best companies Which she believes You will benefit over 10 Years of gains Productivity and benefits Economics of Intelligence Artificial, it will be It's all right in the end.
Therefore, For this reason, when not I know how it will change Things, if I own Shares in Amazon or Google, I'm confident Exactly from them You will both benefit from that. For a period of ten years.
I don't know Whether it will happen economic bubble during Two or three years, but I I'll be fine after ten Years.
尽管过去两年计算服务在Google Cloud、Amazon和Microsoft取得了显著增长，但这并非源于客户改变了他们的云服务，而是源于加入了更多客户，然后Google用户长期转向Google Cloud。
诚然，Amazon曾拥有领先优势，但你并没有看到客户发生变化。
Despite The significant growth that Computing services achieved it Google Cloud Amazon and Microsoft In the past two years, However, this is not due to Customer change For their cloud services. but rather It comes down to joining More customers, then Google users move Sweet for a long time Google Cloud.
It is true that Amazon had an advantage Leadership, but you don't see it A change in customers.
这些是计入Microsoft和Amazon等公司投资者损益表的收益。像Microsoft和Amazon这样的投资者。
These are gains included in Corporate income statements investor like Microsoft and Amazon. investor like Microsoft and Amazon.
还有这样一个事实：Amazon、Alphabet和Microsoft共同投资于SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI等公司。这在未实现收益的画面中显而易见。
There are also The fact that Amazon Alphabet and Microsoft collectively invests in Companies like SpaceX Anthropic and Open A any. This is evident in the image Unrealized gains.
而且，一些中国模型，或者也许所有领先公司，比如Amazon，我打算，你将拥有AI代理，两个具体的基本原则。
And that some models Chinese, or perhaps all A leading company like Amazon And I intend, you will own AI agents Two specific basic principles.
这就像一个Amazon物流系统。它类似于所有那些让产品变好的服务，作为客户你看不到或感觉不到它，它是产品的一部分，但这就是现实。当你能提交它时。我认为这是一个巨大的收益，而像Airbnb这样的公司，她有能力做到这一点。
以及Amazon，还有Millie，以及其他类似的公司。
It's like a system Amazon Logistics. It's similar to all of those Services that make The product is good, which You don't see it or you don't feel it As a customer, it's part of The product, but in That's the reality.
When You can submit it. I think this is A huge gain, and a company Airbnb, for example, She is capable of that. As well as Amazon, and Millie, and other companies Similarity.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。