AMZN 被低估；合理价值 292 美元对价格 251 美元，意味着超过 16% 的上行空间，因 AWS 增长盖过资本开支压力。
逐段跳播
这些是 Amazon、Netflix、Uber、Nvidia、Pinterest、Meta、Visa、Adobe 和 McDonald's。让我解释一下为什么我认为这些股票目前代表着极佳的价值。
These are Amazon, Netflix, Uber, Nvidia, Pinterest, Meta, Visa, Adobe , and McDonald's. Let me explain why I believe these stocks represent excellent value at the moment.
先从 Amazon 说起。我使用屏幕上显示的现金流折现估值模型来计算该公司的公允价值。该模型估算的是我认为公司从现在到长期将产生的现金流规模。由于未来的货币价值低于我们今天口袋里的钱，我用左侧与大家分享的加权平均资本成本对这些未来价值进行折现。
所有这些汇总起来，得出 Amazon 股票的公允价值估计为每股 292 美元，高于当前每股 251 美元的市场价格。这意味着我计算出 Amazon 股票有超过 16% 的潜在上涨空间。
Let's start with Amazon. I calculate the fair value of the company using the discounted cash flow valuation model that you see on the screen. This model estimates the amount of cash flow that I believe the company will generate from now until the long term.
Because the value of money in the future is less than what we have in our pockets today, I discount those future values using the weighted average cost of capital that I share with you on the left side.
All of this comes together to arrive at an estimate of the fair value of Amazon stock at $292 per share, which is higher than the current market price of $251 per share. This means I'm calculating a potential rise of more than 16% for Amazon stock.
目前 Amazon 面临的逆风之一，是公司不断攀升的资本支出。Amazon 向投资者预测，2026 年将花费超过 2000 亿美元，甚至可能高达 2250 亿美元，用于建设其人工智能基础设施。
这导致 2026 年及以后自由现金流为负，正如你在我的估值模型中所看到的，我预计 Amazon 当年的自由现金流为负 390 亿美元。接下来一年同样为负 60 亿美元，直到 2028 年才转为正值，并从那时起大幅增长。
Now, one of the headwinds Amazon is currently facing is the company's escalating capital expenditures. Amazon predicted to investors that it would spend more than $200 billion , and possibly as much as $225 billion in 2026, to build its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
This results in negative free cash flow for 2026 and beyond, and as you can see in my valuation model , I expect Amazon's free cash flow to be negative $39 billion that year. And again the following year, negative $6 billion, before returning positive in 2028 and growing significantly from there.
Amazon 面临的最大正面因素之一，是 Amazon 云服务（AWS）板块的强劲增长，该板块在截至上一季度加速，达到 37%，而前一季度为 28%。随着来自这一利润率更高板块的收入增加，公司的营业利润率也随之改善。
归根结底，这取决于风险与回报的平衡，而我认为这对投资者非常有吸引力。事实上，它如此有吸引力，以至于我为自己的个人投资组合买入了 Amazon 股票。
One of the biggest positive factors facing Amazon is the strong growth in the Amazon Cloud Services (AWS) sector, which accelerated in the last quarter ending to reach 37% compared to 28% in the previous quarter.
The company's operating profit margins also improve as revenues increase from this more profitable sector. It all comes down to balancing risk versus reward, which I find very attractive to investors.
In fact , it's so attractive that I bought Amazon shares for my personal investment portfolio.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。