$AMZN

AMZN 被低估;AWS 积压订单(5000 亿美元)与增长,加上基于智能体的零售模式,共同支撑看多逻辑。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Amazon AWS Best Positioned Cloud? Hatem Dhiab's AMZN Compute & Backlog Bull Case》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-10 · 31 段内容
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31 段内容
0:338:39

哦,是的。AWS 确实是一项了不起的业务。我认为明年是 AWS 成立25周年。它最初主要是为交易员提供商业服务的供应商,而现在它是一家很可能产生2000亿美元收入的公司。

Oh, yes. I mean, AWS is truly an amazing business. I believe next year marks the 25th anniversary of the founding of AWS. It started primarily as a business services provider for traders, and now it is a company that will likely generate $200 billion in revenue.

他们经历了连续五个季度的增长或加速增长,上一季度达到约37%。而且利润率绝对出色。

They have experienced five consecutive quarters of growth or accelerated growth, reaching approximately 37% in the last quarter. And the profit margins are absolutely fantastic.

所以,它确实是 Amazon 的瑰宝之一,因为建设数据中心和提供数字服务是他们的核心能力。此外,他们是 Anthropic 最大的计算提供商之一,而 Anthropic 显然是人工智能革命中最大的公司之一。

So, it really is one of Amazon's gems, because building data centers and being able to provide digital services is a core competency for them. In addition, they are one of the largest computing providers for Anthropic, which is clearly one of the biggest companies in the artificial intelligence revolution.

所以,有很多好的方面。他们有自己的芯片,即“Trinium”芯片,这是 Anthropic 的主要训练芯片。他们的收入正在快速增长。

So, there are a lot of good things. They have their own chips, namely "Trinium" chips, which are Anthropic's main training chips. They have rapidly increasing revenues.

所以,对我来说,这是一项非常出色的成果,而且我认为它未来被低估了。这对 Amazon 来说能持续吗?它是否处于应对 AI 计算革命的良好且理想的位置?他们是否处在正确的位置?

So, for me, it's a really great piece of work, and I think it's undervalued in the future. Can this continue for Amazon? Is it in a good and ideal position to deal with the AI computing revolution? Are they in the right place?

首先,如果这能持续,我肯定会说是的,因为他们提供的每一瓦计算能力都是预先预订的。他们已经在未来两年内预售了5000亿美元的计算能力,对吧?所以,是的,我认为它会持续。

Well, firstly, if this can continue, I would definitely say yes because every watt of computing power they provide is pre-booked. They already have $500 billion of computing pre-sold over the next two years, right? So, yes, I think it will continue.

但其次,如果你相信随着智能代理和机器人的出现,以及人工智能融入我们所做的一切,推理将继续增长,那么 Amazon 仍将是能够提供所需芯片、训练、推理和容量的引擎,对吧?

But secondly, if you believe that reasoning will continue to grow with the emergence of intelligent agents and robots, and with the integration of artificial intelligence into everything we do, then Amazon will still be the engine capable of providing the chips, training, reasoning, and capacity needed, right?

因为容量不只是以一两倍的速度增长。事实上,它增长一千倍。所以我认为这就是为什么人们将 Amazon 视为与人工智能增长相关的一切的基石。

Because capacity doesn't just grow at a rate of one or two times that. In fact, it grows a thousandfold. So I think that's why people see Amazon as a cornerstone in everything related to the growth of artificial intelligence.

我谈到了与 Alphabet 等公司进行的一些比较,其云合同积压增长到500亿美元,然后我谈到了 Amazon 的积压,其增长速度更快。为什么 Amazon 增长更快?

I talked about some comparisons I made with companies like Alphabet, whose cloud contract backlog grew to $50 billion, and then I talked about Amazon's backlog, which grew at a faster pace. Why is Amazon growing faster?

也许一些数字能帮我们说明情况。是的。不过,他们的基数更大,不是吗?与此同时,Amazon 的合同积压从3700亿美元增长到了5000亿美元。

Perhaps some figures will clarify things for us. Yes. Well, their base is bigger, isn't it? Meanwhile, Amazon's backlog of contracts grew from $370 billion to $500 billion.

也就是说,未来两年新签了1300亿美元的合同。他们就是这个领域里最大的玩家,之所以如此,是因为他们在这个行业已经做了25年。

That's $130 billion in new contracts signed for the next two years. They are simply the biggest players in this field, and they are because they have been working in this sector for 25 years.

回到我刚才说的,这是他们的核心竞争力。而 Amazon 已经做了很长时间。所以他们知道如何拿到许可,如何正确地建设基础设施,而且他们确实懂得如何把数字工具连接起来,以最好的方式完成这件事。

Going back to what I said earlier, this is their core competency. while Amazon has been doing it for a long time. So they know how to get permits, how to build the infrastructure properly, and they really know how to connect the digital tools to do it in the best way.

这就是为什么我认为他们处于领先地位,也是为什么包括 Apple 在内的这么多公司都通过 AWS 信任他们的云服务。其实,利润率也非常好,不是吗?

That's why I think they're ahead, and why so many companies, including Apple, trust their cloud services via AWS. Actually, the profit margins are very good too, aren't they?

说到 Amazon Web Services,我看到一个数据显示是39.4%。利润率看起来非常好,AWS 确实是这里的利润引擎。这是对的吗?

When you think about Amazon Web Services, I see a statistic that indicates 39.4%. The margins look very good, and AWS is indeed the profit engine here. Is this correct?

当然。零售业务,当然比 AWS 大得多,利润率非常低。但数字服务一旦获得了客户,就不需要额外的获客成本。对 Amazon 来说,关键就在于能够留住客户,扩大向他们销售的服务,显然还要建设那套基础设施。

certainly. I mean, the retail sector, which is of course a much larger business than AWS, has very low profit margins. But digital services, once customers are gained, do not require additional costs to acquire them.

For Amazon, it's really about being able to retain customers, growing the services they sell to them, and obviously building that infrastructure.

芯片有5年的使用周期,而实际的物理基础设施大概是10到15年。

You know, there's a 5-year consumption period for chips and probably 10 to 15 years for the actual physical infrastructure.

当然,这是一门好得多的生意,利润率也高得多,这就是为什么我认为 Amazon Web Services 的利润约占 Amazon 利润的60%,而 Amazon 的整体营收基数要小得多。

Certainly, it's a much better business, with much better profit margins, and that's why I think Amazon Web Services' profits represent about 60% of Amazon's profits from a much smaller overall revenue base for Amazon.

我知道你不设目标价,但这只股票目前是261。你觉得我们可能看到多大的上涨空间,按百分比或者按某些年份来算?关于这只股票的走向,你在关注什么?

I know you don't set price targets, but the stock is currently at 261. What kind of upside do you think we might see in terms of percentage or over certain years? What are you watching for regarding the direction of this stock?

好。我们已经多次谈过这个话题,我们对人工智能的发展非常乐观。

Okay. I mean, as we've talked about this many times, we are very optimistic about the development of artificial intelligence.

Amazon 再次实现了连续五个季度的加速增长,而今年迄今只上涨了13%。所以,在我看来,如果要考虑谁会是最大的受益者,那就是 Amazon。

Amazon, once again, has seen five consecutive quarters of accelerated growth, and has only risen by 13% this year. So, for me, if you're thinking about who will benefit the most, it's Amazon.

而且,它们的市盈率仍然只有21或22倍。所以,这基本上就是市场价格的问题。因此,我认为市场并没有给予它们应有的信心,尽管它们的能力确实非常出色。

And you know, they are still trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 or 22. So, as you know, this is pretty much about the market price. Therefore, I don't think the market gives them the confidence they deserve because of their truly remarkable abilities.

另外,我认为许多市场参与者没有关注的第二件事,是基于智能体的零售。这件事还没有开始。现在还处于非常早期,也非常新。

Also, the second thing that I think many market participants are not looking at is agent-based retailing. This hasn't started yet. It is very early on, and very new.

但我认为,随着这些智能体开始替我们购买或尝试完成交易,Amazon 将从中获得巨大收益,因为它们拥有基础设施,也拥有信心。

But I think Amazon will benefit enormously from these agents starting to buy or try to do the trade on our behalf because they have the infrastructure, and they have the confidence.

事实上,它们有能力通过智能体系统来运作,把交易引导到自己的平台上,而且它们本身已经是卖家。所以,我认为这件事未来也会大幅增长。

In fact, they have the ability to operate through an agent system to direct trade to their locations, and they are already sellers. So, I think this is something that will also grow significantly in the future.

所以,就是一个 AI 智能体,一个能帮我在 Amazon.com 上买任何东西的智能体,举个例子。当我们思考零售业务时,谈的就是竞争优势,对吧?

So, an AI agent, an agent that helps me buy anything on Amazon.com, for example. When we think about retail businesses, you're talking about competitive advantages, right?

Amazon Web Services 似乎处于一个非常特殊的位置。零售业务是否也享有非常特殊的地位?我们也见证了“Prime Day”活动。

Amazon Web Services appears to be in a very special position. Do retail businesses also enjoy a very special status? We also witnessed the "Prime Day" event.

我个人手机上并没有很多购物应用,但我确实有 Amazon 的应用,因为它让我很容易找到任何想买的东西。

Okay. Personally, I don't have many shopping apps on my phone, but I do have the Amazon app because it makes it easy for me to find anything I want to buy.

我还有一种感觉,就是我每天都会收到一个来自 Amazon 的包裹。所以,我认为现实情况是,是的,那种竞争优势是真实存在的。

I also have the feeling that I receive a package from Amazon every day. So, I think the reality is yes, that competitive advantage is real.

同时还发生的是,它们拥有配送基础设施、最低的价格,以及与零售商最好的关系。是的,我们可以说这消灭了许多实体店,但现在的现实是,智能体会找到最划算的交易、最快的配送时间和最好的可及性。Amazon 将提供所有这些。

What also happened was that they had the delivery infrastructure, the lowest prices, and the best relationships with retailers. Yes, we can say that this has eliminated many physical stores, but the reality now is that agents will find the best deals, the fastest delivery times, and the best accessibility. Amazon will provide all of those things.

我可以向你保证,我们正在非常努力地争取在这个领域也取得胜利。这种大规模的资本支出将会持续下去。它已经达到了大约2200亿美元。

And I can assure you that we are working very hard to win in this area as well. This massive capital spending will continue. It has reached approximately $220 billion.

所以,正如我所说,我们将继续关注这只股票,相关趋势很可能会延续,与你在宏观层面对其如此乐观的AI革命相伴而行。

So, we will continue to monitor this name as I said, with the likely trends continuing in conjunction with the AI revolution that you are so optimistic about in the big picture.

这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-10看涨本条
哦,是的。AWS 确实是一项了不起的业务。
2026-10-01看涨
我们把目光转向 Amazon,我们在这里看到了来自 Goldman Sachs 的正面评论。事实上,他将其加入了投资信念名单。因此,他做了一些增补,也做了一些删减。
原话 02:46 ›
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